BMO Predicts Real Estate Boom in Alberta

 There has been a ton of talk about a recent report from BMO about the housing market in Alberta. "Alberta Bound... For Another Housing Boom" lays out all the reasons we should see a very strong real estate market in Alberta this year. Some of the facts in the report are staggering:

  • Every province in Canada is now seeing a net out flow of migrants to Alberta
  • Alberta's population growth has surged to the highest level we've seen in over 30 years
  • Our GDP growth forecast is 1.2ppts ahead of the national average for 2014 - the only province expected to have growth over 3%
  • Employment growth is 3.8% higher than last year (compared to basically no growth in the rest of the country)
  • Retail sales growth are more than twice the nearest competitor
  • Nearly 50,000 interprovincial migrants moved to Alberta last year
Screenshot 2014 03 18 13 45 29
Alberta Population, Source: BMO "Albert bound... For Another Housing Boom"
Screenshot 2014 03 18 13 45 20
Alberta vs. The Rest, Source: BMO "Albert bound... For Another Housing Boom"

When you look at it that way... holy crap! In reality, this is information we've known for quite awhile, and have shared it on the blog over the past few months, but not collected into one report.

The BMO report suggests that people are moving to Alberta for two reasons: to get a job, or to get a better paying job. The wage gap between Alberta and Atlantic Canada is the highest its been in decades, and the lower tax burden in Alberta creates a compelling reason to stay even if things down east improve. Of course, even with housing prices on the rise, affordability in the province is still better than the national average.

Screenshot 2014 03 18 13 45 48
Housing Market Metrics, Source: BMO "Albert bound... For Another Housing Boom"

Essentially point the report makes is that Alberta’s (and more specifically, Calgary’s) housing market is quickly heating up again. Assuming there is no sudden drop in oil prices, home prices are going to rise, and builders are going to get busier. They don't expect a repeat of 2006/07, instead we have solid economic and demographic fundamentals in our market, not a bubble emerging.

About 

Sara MacLennan is the Director of Marketing at Liv Real Estate and a licensed Real Estate Associate. The bulk of Sara’s experience and wealth of expertise lies in on-line technology and marketing both for agents and consumers. Sara is the former National Director for Interactive Marketing for Coldwell Banker Canada where she was responsible for an extensive training program traveling to offices across the country training agents and brokers on marketing and technology. Find Sara on Twitter @edmontonblogger.

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12 Responses to “BMO Predicts Real Estate Boom in Alberta”

  1. JoJoNo Gravatar 18. Mar, 2014 at 2:40 pm #

    Great to hear…

  2. a common guyNo Gravatar 18. Mar, 2014 at 2:57 pm #

    I’m holding tight to my properties and might cash in in a year or two.

  3. JohnNo Gravatar 18. Mar, 2014 at 4:14 pm #

    Common,

    Totally agree, if I’m selling anything it will be 2018, let all these billion dollar projects come online and then cash out.

  4. GMNo Gravatar 18. Mar, 2014 at 11:32 pm #

    Why the big gap between Edmonton and Calgary for unabsorbed inventory?

    • JoJoNo Gravatar 19. Mar, 2014 at 8:14 am #

      Building too many condos?

  5. TonyNo Gravatar 19. Mar, 2014 at 2:09 pm #

    Alberta real estate will fall the least of all the provinces this year until the inevitable collapse in oil prices. The good news is mortgage rates will continue to fall as America slips back into recession which will put Canada in the same position.

  6. a common guyNo Gravatar 19. Mar, 2014 at 11:29 pm #

    You think the prices will fall this year in Alberta?! And you think US is going back to recession?! if you are hoping that to happen I think you’ll be disappointed.

    • TonyNo Gravatar 23. Mar, 2014 at 10:45 am #

      America is toast in fact it likely will get so bad the Americans will be leaving to live in Mexico not the other way around. America will take our country down with it as we’re it’s main trading partner.

      • gregNo Gravatar 24. Mar, 2014 at 9:21 am #

        someones been watching too much interweb tv

        • wsnNo Gravatar 24. Mar, 2014 at 11:42 am #

          Or, been renting for too long.

  7. JoJoNo Gravatar 24. Mar, 2014 at 3:14 pm #

    Maybe instead of just stating things like Alberta real estate fall and US slipping back into recession, it may be more helpful you can point out some facts that support your claim.

  8. yeglandNo Gravatar 27. Mar, 2014 at 8:28 am #

    I guess BMO is going to make sure a boom happens:
    link to cbc.ca