Edmonton Real Estate Market Weekly Update – Feb. 8/13

EdmontonRealEstateMarketUpdate
Edmonton Real Estate Market Update

Here is our update on the Edmonton real estate market. (Previous week’s number are in brackets). For the past 7 days:

New Listings: 404 (329, 309, 384)
# Sales: 179 (157, 188, 194)
Ratio: 44% (48%, 61%, 51%)
# Price Changes: 104 (110, 99, 113)
# Expired/Off Market Listings: 222 (228, 93, 187)
Net loss/gain in listings this week: 3 (-56, 28, 3)
Active single family home listings: 1728 (1686, 1700, 1677)
Active condo listings: 1334 (1263, 1265, 1229)
Homes 4-week running average: $388k ($387k, $379k, $375k)
Condos 4-week running average: $216k ($217k, $212k, $201k)

Quite the discussion going on for the monthly stats, I’ll let that continue instead of getting too in depth on the weekly numbers today.

Feb813
Edmonton real estate listings and sales
Feb813a
Edmonton real estate prices

Have a great weekend!

About 

Sara MacLennan is the Director of Marketing at Liv Real Estate and a licensed Real Estate Associate. The bulk of Sara’s experience and wealth of expertise lies in on-line technology and marketing both for agents and consumers. Sara is the former National Director for Interactive Marketing for Coldwell Banker Canada where she was responsible for an extensive training program traveling to offices across the country training agents and brokers on marketing and technology. Find Sara on Twitter @edmontonblogger.

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28 Responses to “Edmonton Real Estate Market Weekly Update – Feb. 8/13”

  1. birdladyNo Gravatar 08. Feb, 2013 at 7:23 pm #

    Looks like the average prices didn’t update this week. Prices listed are the same as the past 4 week running average from Feb 1st back.

    • Sara MacLennanNo Gravatar 09. Feb, 2013 at 1:02 pm #

      Nice catch – thanks for pointing that out, I’ve corrected it.

  2. plantainNo Gravatar 09. Feb, 2013 at 6:41 am #

    These stats only cover greater Edmonton. Nothing about Beaumont or Leduc or other smaller areas where house sales are stale and stagnant with houses staying on the market 4-6 months and prices dropping. Nice houses too, on the golf course, or backing on to greenspace….it is indicative, starts in the smaller areas first, and is the start toward what is ahead for the Alberta housing market. Oil prices are dropping, mortgage rules changed, companies quietly beginning to lay off, overpriced houses not worth what they’re mortgaged for….sounds eerily similar to what transpired in 2008 with our southern neighbors. Pay attention people…. pay attention. You are being duped by the real estate community!

  3. JulnicanNo Gravatar 09. Feb, 2013 at 9:21 am #

    Garth Turner has persevered in his message since 2008 that all markets across Canada will inevitably correct downward as far as prices go. I do know that a broken clock is at least right twice daily but is Garth right or is he merely a broken record?
    Sheldon/Sara any thoughts?

  4. CMDNo Gravatar 09. Feb, 2013 at 9:40 am #

    ^Exactly, if you (Garth) keeps saying it eventually there will come a time where it may come true…it just make take 6 months, 1, 5, or 10 years. Real estate always has and always will go up and down. That’s the nature of the beast.

  5. SpenceNo Gravatar 09. Feb, 2013 at 12:20 pm #

    Hey everyone,
    We sold our home in Edmonton and moved to Halifax last summer. We purchased the home in 2008 for $320k and sold in 2012 for $310K. We walked away with $297K after realtor fees/closing costs. We were actually quite happy with the price because through 2009/2010 we were psychologically preparing ourselves to eventually sell for around $260k. People keep on harping on Garth Turner for being wrong but when you consider that our identical unit sold for $368K in 2007, his predictions definitely played out to some degree for the Edmonton market. What I believe prevented a significant drop for most areas of the country over the past five years was the extending of amortizations and the falling interest rates that opened the doors for large numbers of previously ineligible buyers. It will be interesting to see what happens to the market as the reduced amortization policy takes affect and if rates start to rise. The other elephant in the room is Alberta’s economic challenges and the prospect of multiple lean years moving forward. My wife and I hope to return to Edmonton after 3 or 4 years here in Halifax. We would actually like to purchase the same duplex unit if we do return. It will be interesting to see what the price is like in 2016. My guess is that it will be around $100k less than the $368K it sold for in 2007. What a proud decade of home ownership that would be. Time will tell.

    The market out here in Halifax seems to actually be about five years behind the Alberta market. Prices are at a peak right now as people have been speculating on the shipbuilding contracts politicians have promised the region (we all know politicians never lie ;). The townhome we are renting is very similar to the unit we left in Edmonton and there are two listed right now for around $350k. I’m pretty sure I know how this story ends but, in the meantime, I’m the silly doctor that is throwing away $1700/month on rent. Keep up the good work with the blog guys…….now time to go shovel the snow…….again!!

  6. CMDNo Gravatar 10. Feb, 2013 at 9:13 am #

    Spence, if you bought your house in 2006 or earlier you’d have a different story to tell. Likewise with those who bought at the peak in any other market and sold within a few years after. The froth eventually comes off. Real estate is a patient game. As someone who’s in real estate development I can tell you that most successes are achieved by being at the right place at the right time. No one really knows when the pendulum will swing one way or the other.

    • JulnicanNo Gravatar 10. Feb, 2013 at 3:20 pm #

      We bought three homes in Edmonton: first in May 1994 off Rosslyn, then in 2002 in Klarvaten and in 2006 in Canossa. We never lost money. We are looking to move back to Edmonton in summer 2015. We are retiring there:)

  7. SpenceNo Gravatar 10. Feb, 2013 at 2:15 pm #

    CMD,
    I actually do have another story to tell (again). I was in real estate development for much of the last decade as well. I ran a framing crew and worked exclusively with a few larger builders (Daytona, Jayman etc). I took the real estate licensing course for educational purposes and built and sold 6 personal houses between 2004 and 2007 (before moving to Edmonton). We made anywhere between $500 and $100,000 per house before losing $23,000 on the last house we bought in Edmonton. Our winnings in the Real Estate casino paid off a modest duplex and most of my schooling. In short, I know about being in the right place at the right time…(it usually involves knowing the right people too). In my opinion, as far as first time buyers are concerned, now is not the right time to buy. There are plenty of reasons to expect the pendulum to swing more to the negative side for Alberta RE in the coming years. How’s Century Park doing these days anyway? Did they get the pool built yet or is it still a parking lot? I wonder how many people have a 30 – 40 year sentence in that place. But hey, at least the prison cells come with floor to ceiling windows and granite………

    • CMDNo Gravatar 13. Feb, 2013 at 10:07 pm #

      The lack of activity at Century Park had more to do with a few things beyond lack of market demand. 1) Changing of the guard. Procura bought out the other two partners in 2011 and wants to revisit the overall master plan (reducing the number of highrises and adding more midrise and commercial). 2) Of the suites that remain many are the larger suites that, imo, are inefficient layouts with sub-par finishings given the asking price. I do know that Central tower is going to be started soon (if believe contracts have been awarded), but this building won’t be condos. Mid-upper end rentals. After that I’d say Century Park is on hiatus while Procura figures out the longer term game plan for that site.

  8. Inspector GadgetNo Gravatar 10. Feb, 2013 at 9:52 pm #

    Could not agree more with the posters saying you need to be lucky or make your own luck to be in the right place at the right time.

    So, is now one of those “right times?” I could be wrong buy I don’t think so. One of the many reasons for those that like to read:

    link to theglobeandmail.com

    Oh, and whoever mentioned Teranet I agree 100%. If you have not seen the chart for Edmonton check it out!

    link to housepriceindex.ca

    All you Turner haters out there have to admit that it sure looks like a steep correction followed by stagnation doesn’t it? If you throw in some inflation and tax hikes it is a pretty good melt since the bust and in to 08. Makes Turner look like Nostrodomous in terms of Edmonton, and though it has not happenned yet, the cracks are showing in many other major markets in Canada. Check out the Terenet stats for some other cities…quite interesting.

    Oh, if you are a skier, don’t bother going to Marmot, it is a rock and ice garden..they need a big dump.

    • ItchyNo Gravatar 11. Feb, 2013 at 9:55 am #

      Agree on Marmot. Were supposed to go with friends last month, and heard it was crap and didn’t go. I guess it isn’t any better.
      Disagree on the characterization that Mr. Turner was anywhere close to being right. If you have been following what he said, we should be another 30-40% lower than we are. By my calculations, from peak to trough, we were down around 15-17% depending on area, whether sfh or condo. Compared to Jan 2009 sfh we are 9% higher on avg, 10% higher on median and 8.5% higher in ppsf. We are also higher in Jan on sfh compared to Jan 2007, 6 months away from the peak. Condo prices are another story as they were massively speculated on by flippers (even more so than sfh). Anyone remember the stories about lottery draws just to get your hands on one in 06/07. Overbuilding is what will sink the Toronto Condo market for years to come as well.

      As for the question, is now a right time to buy. It always depends more on your personal situation rather than trying to market time the bottom. It seldom works for stocks and same for real estate. The simple solution is to live in it for a long time. Time is your friend. If you hold your house for 10 to 20 years you’ll see bad years, good years, and unremarkable years…..but your house will be worth more at the end of 10 or 20 years than it is now. If you aren’t in it for the long term, like Spence, you open yourself up to risks that should be unacceptable to most. In that case renting is your friend. It offers flexibility especially for young people who maybe aren’t as secure in their job as they think they are.

  9. wsnNo Gravatar 11. Feb, 2013 at 10:47 am #

    Inspector, I agree with the inflation part. After all, the Fed is printing like crazy.

    But if you look at the last oil boom, the inflation broke out as the oil price went up dramatically. From there:

    interest rate went up
    -> price went up (yes, including real estate price)
    -> interest went up further
    -> price went up further
    -> interest went over 20%!
    -> price corrected, but still much higher than where it started

    The entire sequence of events took 15 years to play out. Those who bought in just before the inflation started essentially got their houses for free.

    Those who chose to rent, had to pay ever-increasing rents and couldn’t buy for another 15 years. That’s assuming they have great foresight and can resist it. If they don’t, they would feel the correction the harshest way.

    • GMNo Gravatar 12. Feb, 2013 at 3:03 am #

      Canada just stopped making pennies. What does that tell you about inflation? It costs more to make a penny than it is worth.

      • wsnNo Gravatar 12. Feb, 2013 at 9:09 am #

        That’s not a good example. The penny coins have been costly to Canada mint for decades. It’s a balance between the cost of the coin vs. the inconvenience cost of transaction.

        There is certainly inflation everywhere. But the specific type of inflation I referred to in my post is super high inflation that would force the Fed to raise interest rate.

        • GeorgeNo Gravatar 14. Feb, 2013 at 3:40 pm #

          “There is certainly inflation everywhere.”

          There is actually zero inflation around these parts.

          link to statcan.gc.ca

          As you can see from Statscan, over the last 12 months, Alberta posted 0% inflation.

          • wsnNo Gravatar 19. Feb, 2013 at 5:03 pm #

            I was talking about inflation, you gave a link for CPI. They are different items. For instance, real estate price is directly affected by inflation, but is not included in the CPI.

          • GoodWillRentingNo Gravatar 20. Feb, 2013 at 8:40 am #

            Right, CPI typically does include housing costs, but not real estate. For example, in the US the published CPI includes:

            “Housing (rent of primary residence, owners’ equivalent rent, fuel oil, bedroom furniture)”

            This is intended to represent the cost of housing as a consumer good.

            However, the CPI excludes investment assets (stocks, bonds, real estate, insurance, etc.

            The key is to understand that housing is a consumer good everyone needs, just as they need food and clothing. Buying real estate as an investment is not a consumer need, just as buying stocks is not.

            So, for example, when the US housing bubble was in full swing, real estate prices rose sharply, while housing costs (e.g. rents) did not. Thus the CPI was not affected by the overvalued real estate.

            It is definitely true the Fed is trying to create inflation in the US, and to a lesser extent so is the BoC. If you can predetermine which assets the inflation, it does in fact become significant, will chase, you’re a better investor than me. The fact CMHC is cooperating with the BoC to “cool” the real estate market should at least give some pause that the new money might not end up there.

          • GeorgeNo Gravatar 20. Feb, 2013 at 7:24 pm #

            People who’ve been calling for all this inflation last couple years like wsn, simply don’t understand what causes it. The next dose of meaningful inflation is so far off in the future, it’s a yawner.

          • wsnNo Gravatar 20. Feb, 2013 at 8:03 pm #

            George, it seems that you got embarrassed not knowing the difference between inflation and CPI, and thus resorted to use personal attack.

            A real analysis on what YOU believe to be the true cause of inflation vs. what I have advocated would be beneficial. But I guess that’s asking too much from your intelligence.

          • GeorgeNo Gravatar 20. Feb, 2013 at 11:30 pm #

            I apologize wsn if you took my “don’t understand what causes it” as a personal attack. There are many things I don’t understand, but I’m not offended that I don’t understand. I tell you what, if in 5 years this wonderful blog is still around, I will explain then why so many people were misled and still confused as to why there’s no significant inflation. Nobody’s ready to hear why yet.

          • wsnNo Gravatar 21. Feb, 2013 at 10:14 am #

            George, if I am not going say anything for the next five years, I would not type an extra comment just to say that. Save the bandwidth.

  10. Inspector GadgetNo Gravatar 12. Feb, 2013 at 6:26 pm #

    First off I would like to thank all the posters for providing their opinion lately. It has been informative and interesting. I think the number of comments on the last post is a record on here, at least from what I have seen.

    In the interest of fairness, seeing as there has been some picking on the real estate bloggers from the bears side, lets present an article from today’s Journal by a well know bull:

    link to edmontonjournal.com

    Now, Don Campbell is the famous REIN founder and it a hardcore bull and sellor of books and seminars. There is print and video proof all over the internet that he was pumping real estate right through the Alberta crash calling it a “breather” and “opportunity” at the time. He is also famous for touting the purchase of real estate near LRT here, though some in Belgravia may disagree!The article is interesting to me mostly because he says nothing about Alberta’s marcro economic picture, nothing about mortgage rule changes, and really only says we are second to Calgary for upside potential in his opinion.

    I would love to hear what the commenters here think of Mr. Campbell, his message, and whether or not he should be a source of “news”.

    • wsnNo Gravatar 13. Feb, 2013 at 11:37 am #

      Re macro economic picture, nothing new here. Oil at $90~$100. Not going anywhere soon. PC government deficit at several billion per year, not going anywhere soon.

      Re mortgage rule changes, the changes have been made quite some time ago. It didn’t crash the market as some renters had hoped. Is there further change? Never heard of it.

      So exactly what did you expect from him?

    • GMNo Gravatar 13. Feb, 2013 at 11:40 pm #

      Don Campbell is the exact opposite of Garth Turner – a perpetual bull.

      Don’t put too much faith in either one of the above – they both are trying to sell books and thus both have an agenda to push.

  11. bubuNo Gravatar 12. Feb, 2013 at 6:38 pm #

    I think he is right… the chance to lose less money on real estate in Calgary or Edmonton is smaller than in Vancouver or Toronto… So you better choose Calgary or Edmonton if you want to gamble.

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