Edmonton Real Estate Market Weekly Update – Jan. 25/13

EdmontonRealEstateMarketUpdate
Edmonton Real Estate Market Update

Here is our update on the Edmonton real estate market. (Previous week’s number are in brackets). For the past 7 days:

New Listings: 309 (384, 296, 144)
# Sales: 188 (194, 119, 81)
Ratio: 61% (51%, 40%, 56%)
# Price Changes: 99 (113, 81, 46)
# Expired/Off Market Listings: 93 (187, 120, 459)
Net loss/gain in listings this week: 28 (3, 57, -396)
Active single family home listings: 1700 (1677, 1632, 1594)
Active condo listings: 1265 (1229, 1227, 1162)
Homes 4-week running average: $379k ($375k, $388k, $402k)
Condos 4-week running average: $212k ($201k, $227k, $226k)

At this time of year, the sales to new listings ratio is normally between 30-40%, and we are currently sitting at 61%. We typically see supply and demand on the rise in the first quarter, and while we are seeing an increase in both supply and demand, supply is not increasing as quickly as demand is. It will be interesting to see if supply remains tight as we head into the spring market.

Many of our clients are currently having difficulty finding what they’re looking for, but there doesn’t seem to be a shortage of any particular type of property, it’s all over the map. When something good does come on the market, that is priced well, it sells quickly in Edmonton right now, very quickly.

Jan2513a
Edmonton real estate prices
Jan2513
Edmonton real estate listings and sales

Have a great weekend!

About 

Sara MacLennan is the Director of Marketing at Liv Real Estate and a licensed Real Estate Associate. The bulk of Sara’s experience and wealth of expertise lies in on-line technology and marketing both for agents and consumers. Sara is the former National Director for Interactive Marketing for Coldwell Banker Canada where she was responsible for an extensive training program traveling to offices across the country training agents and brokers on marketing and technology. Find Sara on Twitter @edmontonblogger.

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34 Responses to “Edmonton Real Estate Market Weekly Update – Jan. 25/13”

  1. JulnicanNo Gravatar 26. Jan, 2013 at 6:12 am #

    Would it be possible for one of you two to make a graph which would show the yearly average price for both condos and for SFH, and those from 2006 until end 2012? That could illustrate the prices evolution since then.
    Thank you.

    • Sara MacLennanNo Gravatar 28. Jan, 2013 at 4:40 pm #

      Yes! I do one every month as part of our monthly stats. New charts coming in 4 days.

  2. A McNo Gravatar 26. Jan, 2013 at 8:16 pm #

    I think the results this spring will be interesting. Noticing a lot of out of province people applying at the company I work at, with most saying they intend to move here. I also think once the ring road is completed the prices will rise in the surrounding communities as people look to save a few bucks and as they take into account the commute times due to the new hiway.

  3. Karl HungusNo Gravatar 27. Jan, 2013 at 1:18 am #

    I agree, gonna be a busy spring. Lots of demand built up. Low inventory. Huge in migration. Low vacancy. High Rents. All leads to increase in price. I initially thought 5-7% but now im thinking closer to 10%. Once people start thinking they will be priced out, everyone will jump on board.

    • HOusehuntedNo Gravatar 29. Jan, 2013 at 1:35 pm #

      I disagree, sales are suggesting there is a decline in demand. This spring will only bring in a lot of inventory. You know what follows.

  4. Inspector GadgetNo Gravatar 27. Jan, 2013 at 6:28 am #

    A 10% increase in rents or the value of existing housing stock Karl?

  5. Karl HungusNo Gravatar 27. Jan, 2013 at 7:26 pm #

    value of existing stock

  6. birdladyNo Gravatar 27. Jan, 2013 at 7:27 pm #

    Keep dreaming – inventory levels will rise very quickly. Where is your scientific data about demand building up Karl. I believe a lot of people who wanted to buy have done so last year which is why sales to listing ratio was abnormally high. There are a lot of sellers thinking that spring is going to get them huge prices – watch what happens. And with the rate that low price condos are selling, I would have to think a lot of investers are jumping into the rental pool.

    • ItchyNo Gravatar 28. Jan, 2013 at 6:37 am #

      Gee, birdlady, where is your scientific data. Inventory levels have been falling y/y for 4 or 5 years now. There is always a large build of inventory during the first 6 or 7 months of the year before levelling off for the fall and falling during the early winter. Also I suspect there is a lot of investors coming in to the rental market as well. Why not? Rock bottom interest rates, high demand, low vacancy rates gives pricing power not seen since 2005-2008. Early money is usually smart money. Don’t confuse investors in the rental market with flippers. Investors can be good for a market if they are filling a need. Flippers are almost always bad for a market, and I haven’t heard of much of that going on as there just isn’t the huge upside possibilities as there was in 2004-2006.

    • wsnNo Gravatar 28. Jan, 2013 at 9:12 am #

      birdlady, don’t throw rocks if you live in a glass house. I don’t see anything scientific about your own post. You are just guessing, and didn’t provide a single number.

      • Really?No Gravatar 28. Jan, 2013 at 10:27 pm #

        Some digest for you link to pacificapartners.com

        • mavvrickNo Gravatar 29. Jan, 2013 at 9:01 am #

          Really? These dooms day predictions have been published for years now…..all the author wants you to do is invest your money with them so they can loose it all for you….good luck :)

          • Really?No Gravatar 30. Jan, 2013 at 10:35 pm #

            I don’t invest , not so smart and I suspect that the only “best” way to invest for me , following to advise of the best friend of buyer realtor , is to buy a property. Wy people should be smart? Pay your mortgage and in 25 years and couple of oil booms your creepy ,moldy , sixty yeas old house will cost millions ! Didn’t I miss anything?Oh,yeas ,I did ,you can find some losers for your basement and they pay your mortgage.More dooms predictions How low will house prices go? – Canadian Business
            link to canadianbusiness.com .
            Sorry for grammatical mistakes ,resent immigrant , your hope for basement dweller.

  7. mavvrickNo Gravatar 28. Jan, 2013 at 11:04 am #

    It’s just wishfull thinking on the part of the Birdlady, as she sold her property last year and is hoping for a correction so she can re-purchase. I just purchased a house in the last 30 days that took me 5 months to find. Any property that i viewed that was priced right, good location, and in decent shape had i line up of people waiting to view and usually sold in the first week. I can back up Sara’s comment that there are MANY people looking to buy right now who are not finding anything, there is pent up demand right now. Yes listings in Edmonton are low, but most of the properties that are on the market right now are junk, the number of decent listings in Edmonton right now has got to be close to an all time low. As soon as there is more good properties available they will be swallowed up, and sales will increase dramatically, Edmonton actrally needs more listings for this market to take off as there is very little worth buying right now.

  8. birdladyNo Gravatar 28. Jan, 2013 at 2:31 pm #

    Hey Mavvrick – good memory on the fact that I sold my property last year, however don’t really plan on buying anything this year (unless prices and options are too good to be true) so if anything I hope the market drops next year :).

    I sincerely believe there will be a huge amount of listings on the market this spring and I don’t know the buyers will be there. My opinion, but I figured it would get a rise out of a few of people – and I was right :)

    Been too busy travelling the southern states for the winter – so haven’t really commented on the blog much but am keeping track of the stats – thanks Sara and Sheldon.

    • Karl HungusNo Gravatar 28. Jan, 2013 at 3:39 pm #

      Its not your opinion that got a rise, its the way you presented it.

  9. a common guyNo Gravatar 28. Jan, 2013 at 5:34 pm #

    I have said this earlier but I think the positive and negative factors will pretty much cancel each other out and we’ll see a fairly flat year this year as well (maybe a very small increase). Of course, as one with a bunch of properties, I’d be glad if it performs much better, but I doubt it.

  10. Building InspectionNo Gravatar 29. Jan, 2013 at 1:39 am #

    Well, I am not very much sure with the opinion as it doesn’t have any numbers and more it looks a guess rather than fact.

  11. Inspector GadgetNo Gravatar 29. Jan, 2013 at 10:39 am #

    I agree 100% common guy, though I would throw in a chance that Alberta is on the cusp of another serious duldrum period. There are valid points in the article posted, though noone has a crystal ball.
    If the world economy stays flat Alberta is in trouble until we find a way to move our energy to foreign markets other than the U.S. That probably means pipelines, which take a long time to build.
    Reford came right out and said yesterday that we are getting oil royalites based on $65 a barrel or so. Natural gas is in the toilet. The province is facing huge budget issues and companies will not be investing here at the level they have at such low energy prices. Sure they might continue with projects that they have started mind you.
    It is starting to be revealed that Alberta is not really an island to the rest of the world, economically speaking.

    • wsnNo Gravatar 29. Jan, 2013 at 11:24 am #

      I don’t see anything wrong with the oil price. More Alberta oil is sold as WTI than sold as WCS. The former is at about $100 now.

      The Alberta budget is in the toilet because of the PC government. Don’t complain, if you voted for a premier who used public funds for her own party fight (i.e. promise to the teacher’s union during Redford vs. Mar). If you want a balanced budget, remember to vote for Wildrose next time around.

      • TomasNo Gravatar 30. Jan, 2013 at 12:49 pm #

        You can’t sell any oil and any benchmark price you choose. That’s like saying “gee, I’m going to sell my ford pinto at a BMW price because that’s what I want to get for it!”

        It depends on the grade of the oil. The vast majority of our oil exports are heavy crude. We need upgraders to be built in order to upgrade it into synthetic crude which trades at the same price (roughly) as WTI.

        The problem is these things cost BILLIONS. When the stuff coming out of Eagle Ford and Bakken is already the same “weight” as WTI and syncrude and costs a fraction to produce…well you get the picture.

        If you believe me talk to the many worried people working for Talisman and PennWest right now.

        link to energy.alberta.ca

        • TomasNo Gravatar 30. Jan, 2013 at 1:14 pm #

          Note: I’m lumping heavy into the same category as bitumen due to the upgrading requirement.

          • DaBullNo Gravatar 31. Jan, 2013 at 10:40 am #

            Here’s what Alberta was upgrading to Synthetic Crude in 2011.

            link to energy.alberta.ca

            In 2011 57% of bitumen is upgraded to Synthetic Crude.
            We export 1.8 million bbls/day to US. 600k is Conventional, rest is Synth, Bitumen and products.

            North Dakota (ND) Bakken production may have peaked already. To soon to tell but starting to look that way. Montana Bakken peak years ago and is now in decline. ND Bakken oil well spacing of 1280 acres may all they get at these prices. They are finding that any infill drilled wells don’t produce enough oil at these prices to be viable. The ND Bakken play is almost drilled out at 1280 acre spacing.

            Production numbers from ND oil and gas.

            link to dmr.nd.gov

            Eagle Ford will most likely continue increasing production for a couple of years before it also peaks, might reach the current levels of the Bakken, probably not though.

            Wouldn’t count much on the US getting even close to energy self sufficiency anytime soon or ever. They will still need our dirty oil.

            Canada has quite a big share of tight oil/gas and the US as well as the rest of the world will need it. If they want it later, all the better, it will be worth a whole lot more.

            Here is a National Energy Board assessment of tight oil/gas plays in Canada.
            link to neb-one.gc.ca

        • wsnNo Gravatar 31. Jan, 2013 at 9:23 am #

          Thomas, you sure know your stuff about oil. But you need to read more carefully what people say.

          I said more Alberta oil is sold as WTI than WCS. That’s an indisputable fact. You are right that it takes a lot of money to upgrade. But that’s a factor already built into the financial model of oil sand companies, like 20 years ago.

          What I wrote, is targeted at this new claim that the landlock costs Alberta $40/barrel. That is simply a lie by the Redford government to dodge criticism to their inability to balance the budget.

          The landlock cost is somewhere between $5~$15. The other costs are due to upgrade cost as you mentioned. Nothing is new. They all existed during the Klein’s days when the budget was balanced.

          • TomasNo Gravatar 01. Feb, 2013 at 9:26 am #

            Some interesting comments, but a couple of points:

            - Your estimates are off for Bakken. Its current production is ~700K a day and there is no evidence that it won’t achieve 1 million a day (Source: IEA). It’s funny b/c you just shot your own argument in the foot by posting that link. The trend is clearly indicating production increase. Until you see at least a year or even 6 months of steady declines there is no evidence that it won’t hit targets. There is nothing there indicating a peak. Montana Bakken peaked due to inferior fracing practices.

            - Eagle Ford isn’t the only other shale field the US has other than Bakken. Marcellus is an absolute monster (if it is developed):

            link to eia.gov

            That stated, you are absolutely right when saying the US isn’t even close to obtaining self sufficiency. They will continue to import our oil. However, there is something to be said when your biggest customer suddenly begins supplying a lot of what it needs. There is no more cries for “another oil boom” here in Calgary right now.

            WSN, politics aside (BTW: I agree with you), large projects 20 years ago did consider upgrading costs in the lifecycle of a project. Its newer projects that I, and others, are worried about. Cost inflation and uncertainly about export capacity are causing a lot of companies to re-examine growth plans. It’s all about cost effectiveness and profitability now. Unless the “meat is sweet enough”, we will see project delays as companies (such as the one I work for) adopt a wait and see approach for the next 2 years. After that? Anyone’s guess.

            FYI: own a condo in Edmonton (used to work here), having trouble selling it for enough to break even. Made a bad buy, my fault, but that’s the way it crumbles I guess.

          • DaBullNo Gravatar 01. Feb, 2013 at 12:32 pm #

            First: All Oil and Gas fields reach peak production at some point.

            Read the book “A Thousand Barrels a Second”. It was written by Peter Tertzakian a Calgary Energy Analyst. The book more or less explains that when we as a society developed our energy infrastructure, we went after the easy stuff first. It’s always happened that way and will continue in the future. This is what is happening with shale/tight oil and gas right now. We are drilling up the easy most productive stuff first and hopefully make some money (NOT), then wait for prices to increase enough to make the harder to get at stuff economical.

            These days we have incredible technology that allows producers to find the best parts of the shale/tight fields. This is what they are drilling up right now, that’s why the numbers are so impressive. But like the old saying goes “not all shale in a shale field is the same”, meaning that there are good parts and not so good parts to all shale/tight oil and gas fields.

            A good example is the Barrnet shale gas field. This is the oldest shale gas field in the US and it peaked out at a much lower production number than was expected. They have drilled up almost all the good stuff and are now only left with the mediocre stuff.

            link to rrc.state.tx.us

            As you can see Barrnet production has more or less been flat for a couple a years and due to the cut back in drilling will most likely start dropping this year. They may be able to increase production through increased drilling, but the cost to do so at this point in time would most likely not be economical.

            Oil and gas are finite resources and run out sooner or later. On thing about shale/tight oil and gas fields as compared to conventional fields is they have incredibly fast decline rates during the first couple of years. They have to keep drilling new wells to keep up with the declines of the old. It’s the Red Queen scenario where they have to run faster and faster just to keep up. And it only gets worse with time.

            By the way the Marcellus field is primarily a gas field, it has some wet gas (NGL), but doesn’t contain any light oil like the Bakken or EagleFord.

            Montana may slow there decline rate in the short term, producers are actually moving back across the border. But like I stated above “Not all shale in a shale field is the same”, Montana shale plays are far inferior plays as compared to ND. There may be a couple of good spots left in Montana, but no where near what the Bakkens in ND were capable of.

            As far the housing market goes, I see anywhere from flat to 2-3% yearly price growth. Alberta has the ability to bring on new housing quickly these days. Plus most younger families want the shiny new house they see on HGTV, not the never been updated since the 1980′s existing home that may have a much better location.

          • wsnNo Gravatar 02. Feb, 2013 at 11:13 am #

            DaBull, I don’t agree with the HGTV part. If anything, HGTV would prompt young people to buy an old house and renovate it. Because HGTV programs typically finish a one-year-$100k renovation with $20k claimed expense in 25 minutes.

  12. big chiefNo Gravatar 29. Jan, 2013 at 2:37 pm #

    Agreed with inspector gadget & common guy. The market is not going anywhere fast any time soon. its going to be flat with possibly a slight upscale possibly a bit of a down scale. When you tight in the pants want to be investors that every year hope and say ” Wow this years going to be crazy! Better buy now peeps because if you don’t you’ll be sorry you missed out!” need to give you head a shake. Get it through your head that we are not going to be having another 2005/06ish for a LONG TIME! Our city and local area’s are exapnding at a decently consistant steady pace. Personaly i own a place. I like it. But do i think its worth what i had to pay for it? Not at all. Our market is still over priced. I just don’t see it being a huge correction in price anytime soon. My outlook what i think is in another 10 or more years when other cities and area’s moderatly rise to getting more inline to where we sit for dollar value, we may then become a bit more of a easier place for another SHORT PERIOD of time to make a quicker buck than whats normal for inflation.

    • wsnNo Gravatar 30. Jan, 2013 at 12:12 am #

      “My outlook what i think is in another 10 or more years when other cities and area’s moderatly rise to getting more inline to where we sit for dollar value”

      Be careful with what you wish for. The USD is being printed like there is no tomorrow. The CND can’t go up against the USD by too far without government intervention.

      Sure, the price will catch up to the dollar value, which means 7%+ per year or typically double every 10 years.

  13. Karl HungusNo Gravatar 29. Jan, 2013 at 10:08 pm #

    Who said anything about 2005/2006 prices? I realized we may never see that type of price appreciation again, nothing wrong with normal 7-8 percent. Which has been the historical average for edmonton for the last 60 years.

  14. ShawnNo Gravatar 30. Jan, 2013 at 3:21 pm #

    Sara,

    Would you be able to give the inventory level details, for each month, for a year or two range? I would like to see a comparison.

    Sincerely,
    Shawn

  15. PERPLEXEDNo Gravatar 30. Jan, 2013 at 5:13 pm #

    could you include yearly averages by month since 2008

    • Sara MacLennanNo Gravatar 30. Jan, 2013 at 5:26 pm #

      I do monthly averages by month since 2008… just check out any of our monthly stats – link to edmontonrealestateblog.com – for example.