Are those massive gusts of wind we’ve been feeling in Edmonton yesterday and today the air blowing out of the Vancouver real estate market? As we’ve been expecting for quite some time, sales in Vancouver dropped significantly (over 30%) in September on a year over year basis. Meanwhile in the Greater Edmonton Area, sales also dropped – there were 1344* sales in September, compared to 1442 last year and 1533 last month.
September’s sales weren’t that far off the prediction we made at the beginning of the year, but they are trending down a bit faster than we had anticipated.
Edmonton sales prediction
The average residential sale price dropped below last year’s average for the first time this year. It’s actually the lowest September average we’ve seen in five years at $323,388 compared to $333k last year and $334k last month. The median price was $315k in September compared to $321,500 last year and $318,500 last month.
Average MLS® sale price
Inventory is trending downwards as expected and is lower than it has been for the past two years:
September is the most unpredictable month of the year when it comes to the real estate market in Edmonton. A lot of people say the mortgage rule changes a few months ago are now being felt, but that doesn’t seem to be a significant factor with our clients.
*We adjust the residential sales total for the current month to account for unreported sales. Every month 6% of sales on average are not reported to the Association in time for the monthly report. The following month the numbers are updated to reflect the total sales during the previous month. That means the current month always looks worse compared to previous month. Our adjusted numbers are far closer to the actual numbers than those reported by the Association each month (so far on average I am under reporting by 22 sales whereas the association is under reporting by 106 sales each month).