The Edmonton real estate market is tied to single family home sales and this month is no exception. While new home sales reps inform us show home traffic increased significantly in September compared to previous months, the resale market saw a major decline. Sales of single family homes in Edmonton dropped below last year’s levels for the second month in a row; there were 634 sales of single family homes in September compared to 691 last year and 706 last month. We almost always see a drop in sales in September as busy families focus on the new school year, not buying homes.
Edmonton single family home sales
Meanwhile, 312 condos sold in September, ahead of last year’s 277 but down from 358 in August. All in all condos seemed to fair better than single family homes this month in Edmonton.
Edmonton condo sales
On a year over year basis, the median sale price was basically unchanged for condos and single family homes, but the average sale price dropped a fair bit. The average sale price for single family homes was $382,234 in September, compared to $386,567 last year and $393,898 last month. The median sale price for single family homes was $355k in September, equal to last year and down from $358k last month. The average sale price for condos was $222,234 in September, down from $230k last year and $236k last month. The median sale price for condos was $219k about the same as last year ($220k) and down from $233k last month.
Edmonton real estate prices
The average price per square foot followed a similar trend, for single family homes it was equal to last year but down $6 from last month to $258 for single family homes. The average price per square foot for condos fell from $226 last year and $232 last month to $216 in September.
Average price per square foot
As always this is our preliminary report on the Edmonton real estate market, our final monthly report on the greater Edmonton area will be posted when the numbers are released by the REALTORS® Association of Edmonton.
About Sara MacLennan
Sara MacLennan is the Director of Marketing at Liv Real Estate and a licensed Real Estate Associate. The bulk of Sara’s experience and wealth of expertise lies in on-line technology and marketing both for agents and consumers. Sara is the former National Director for Interactive Marketing for Coldwell Banker Canada where she was responsible for an extensive training program traveling to offices across the country training agents and brokers on marketing and technology. Find Sara on Twitter @edmontonblogger.
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Looking at the charts you provide, based on your experience, why do average prices dip consistently every November? I understand less people buy which can skewer prices up or down, but they seem to be consistently lower in November. I also understand there is usually lower inventory in November-December. Shouldn’t there be a proportional drop in higher prices homes being sold as well as a proportional drop in lower prices home being sold….which would make it a wash?
It’s more that prices fall every fall than November specifically. Prices and sales tend to increase for the first half of the year, and decrease for the second half. This is partly due to weather, and partly due to the school year. Lower demand means lower prices for the most part.
I have bought each of the four properties I have owned between November and January on purpose. No crowds, in fact on all but one occasion no one else even shopping the property. Had I waited until spring…well, you do the math.
This is a sad symptom of how lightly many people take house ownership. Why would anyone house shop in the spring in Canada? Do they like paying more? I know that inventory rises in the spring, but if you watch carefully there are great properties coming to the market all year. I am of course talking about the people with a choice of when they shop, which most of my aquaitances fall in to.
As for the stats, it is too easy to predict here in E town. Flat….flat… a little down….price per foot the same….flat….
All those people streaming here with their pockets full of money must be living in hotels or renting I guess. My rental has had the same tenants for over three years so I cannot comment on the rental market health. The only thing for certain is that we just added yet another month of zero capital appreciation.
I know for sure that the rental I own would be cash flow negative for a new owner with 25% down at todays prices. I bought it over 10 years ago so it is a no brainer for me….but it is worth less today that it was well over 5 years ago.
Sure wish I had sold it in 07 when suckers were lining up for anything with an address!
I wish realtors wouldn’t make these speculative statements about people being busy with school — therefore the market goes down in the fall. This really makes no sense. I agree there is a correlation here but is back to school really the cause of lower prices in the fall?
I’m in the market right now, and have 3 kids in school, but if we find a good deal we’ll pull the trigger. Are people who actually want to buy a house that fickle that “back to school” takes them out of the market? I mean, if you are a serious buyer, isn’t the fall the BEST time to buy?
Its not speculative, its experiential. In the past 25 years we normally go away when school gets back in because people are busy adjusting to their schedules and have less time available until they settle into a routine.
I wish that one person wouldn’t transpose their singular experience into the market as if it actually means something.
Many people base their decisions around their life not solely on economics so I wouldn’t call them fickle. I’d say they have different priorities. Different strokes for different folks.
@Sheldon, you are probably right, the most plausible explanation of the fall/winter downturn is “back to school” but there are other possible explanations. Perhaps the best homes get purchased throughout the spring/summer. Or perhaps only serious sellers keep their homes listed in the fall/winter. The market is complex, correlation is not causation.
I’m not arguing that my situation is representative, but when people are making probably the most important economic decision of their life — it is surprisinging how non-economic factors can play such a huge role.
Sheldon, when people are busy with school everything, the sales would be down for sure. But you haven’t really explained why the price is down.
Sara’s statement that “lower demand means lower prices for the most part” isn’t exactly accurate either. Price is determined by both supply and demand, in case you forgot.
If you look at the chart, before jumping to conclusions, could you answer the following questions:
1) Did the sales/new listing ratio drop?
2) Did the absorption month (total inventory/monthly sales) go up?
For (1), I can see that the for the month of Sept, the ratio was at 46%, 51%, 59%, 69% for the four weeks. That’s not any worse than other months. Thus, even though a lot of potential buyers didn’t buy because they are busy, a lot of potential sellers didn’t bother to list because they are busy too.
For (2), there is a bit more than 3 months’ worth of inventory according to your data. Not a significant change from other months as well.
Yes supply and demand are both factors, but in this case, at this time of year, it is lower demand that impacts prices more than anything. There is less competition between buyers, and they tend to be less motivated. Plus, a good portion of the homes on the market now are ones that failed to sell in previous months. These owners have to choose between lowering their price or waiting until demand increases.
Exactly Sara. Much more complicated than just “back to school”. I see so much inventory out there and will never sell anywhere near the list price.
Right on Daniel, that is my point. Your second paragraph is a really good point.
Yes it really defies logic. But you can’t argue with these numbers. If I were a realtor and knew my client could wait until the fall it would seem almost immoral not to tell my client just to wait and save tens of thousands…
Agreed. We’ve mentioned many times on the blog that the fall is generally the best time to buy, but when prices are falling people find it difficult to jump in. People are predictably irrational when it comes to this sort of thing – (google predictably irrational…fascinating stuff).
Further proof that link to en.wikipedia.org does not exist.
Its funny though (I do this all the time) that when buying a loaf of bread I thorougly analyze the economics but when buying a house reason falls to the wayside.
All good points, but one thing is also true (at least to some extend): there are fewer choices. If you are very particular about the features, locations, size, etc. you might be willing to pay more and shop around the time when there are more options to choose from.
For instance, you can always get better deals while shopping a new car when it’s the end of season and new models are coming but chances are fewer options (color, etc) are left and you have to take what’s left that others didn’t buy. Good deal? yes to some, not necessarily to all.
A good point. And one might argue that the cars (houses) that are left by the end of the season are probably the less desirable ones to begin with.
I wager one reason why people buy in summer is that they can see the condition of the yard and the house exterior (before it gets covered up with snow). Also, emotionally, people probably feel more positive/optimistic in the spring and summer when they can look forward to bbq on the patio. I agree that late fall/winter is a great time to buy, as long as you can get a deal. (Or at least, it would be if the interest rates were at “normal” levels.)
You are right that when people are busy on “back-to-school”activities, sales tend to decrease but we are pretty sure that there are other factors that really affect the decrease on sales on specific months.