Edmonton Real Estate
Market Update
Here is our update on the Edmonton real estate market. (Previous week’s numbers are in brackets). For the past 7 days:
New listings: 455 (529, 475, 467)
# Sales: 228 (218, 204, 255)
Ratio: 50% (41%, 43%, 55%)
# Price changes: 363 (369, 353, 400)
# Expired/Off Market Listings: 226 (204, 420, 170)
Net loss/gain in listings this week: 1 (107, -149, 42)
Active listings for single family homes: 3374 (3329, 3244, 3289)
Active listings for condos: 2209 (2217, 2166, 2262)
So it looks like inventory has probably peaked for this year. Sales remain below last year’s levels and are closer to 2008. We are seeing more traffic on our web sites and more showings on our listings now than in June, which is unusual – we’ll have to wait and see if that is a trend or just a blip.
The REALTORS® Association of Edmonton is reporting 665 sales so far this month (below average). The average residential sale price sits at $332k, single family homes at $370k (both down quite a bit from last month) and condos at $245k (down slightly from last month).
Sheldon and I attended the Inman Real Estate Connect Conference in San Francisco this week and learned a lot about where technology and the real estate industry are headed. One of the best presentations was by a "Technology Fellow" from Microsoft who "helps define and evolve Microsoft’s product vision, technical architecture, and business strategy for online services." We are really excited to start trying out some of their brand new services for analyzing and displaying data. There were experts from Google, The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, technology blogs, and various real estate franchises and associations. We learned a lot and are really looking forward to implementing new tools to help our clients and readers. Of course the side effect of this was we didn’t get any blogging done this week so we also look forward to more discussion on the blog next week – thanks for your patience.
What does “down quite a bit from last month” mean?
Could you provide some numbers please?
Thanks.
The price declines are starting to happen in the middle of the normal peak selling period. One-off occurrence or the start of a trend?? It does look like inventory has indeed peaked.
GM, according to this blog’s data. Last month’s average single family home’s price is $384k. Now is $370k which dropped 3.6% in just one month.
Sounds like a great time to buy, the astute investors are doing just that.
On the Gold Coast Australia it is a similar story, and I am finding some fantastic deals.
LOL Rob. Yeah, I’m sure every astute investor out there is eager to buy an assett that is destined to fall in price. There is no sense rushing into a purchase right now. Affordability will continue to improve for the forseeable future.
I’m buying in Edmonton. “Fall in price” depends on your horizon.
What’s your horizon Chris?
Planning for a 5-year minimum for exit strategy, with positive cash flow during the term.
I just closed on an Edmonton condo 1 week ago (investment) – it actually cash flows (first time I have seen that in the last 3 years).
I couldn’t be happier – was a fantastic deal.
I see all the new highrise downtown condo’s for sale, how many new versus existing units have come on the market recently? How many more new downtown units are still be be sold? The excess new inventory has hurt prices and the rental rate. Pre sales (from 2007-08) of some of those new units must have been at a way higher price.
Thanks for the numbers; looking forward to more, and I’d love to hear more about the conference!
10% crash by July 2011. house of cards. only realtors and their related websites will brag and mis inform. beware.
10% by July 2011? I would call that a very mild correction.We need at least a 20% decrease to get back to normal. I really hate renting and look forward to the correction that has just started.
You have any data to support that idea? Any real numbers?
I take it you don’t read the papers or follow the economy in general. Many analysts are calling for falling prices – how much exactly is still to come.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/house-prices-fall-for-first-time-this-year/article1640760/
James, it is dangerous to base your views on what you read in the papers. It’s like looking in your rear view mirror to see what colour the traffic light is.
Realators misinform? Never….they are among the most ethical groups in society.
Well that’s not fair. I was amazed at Sara MacLennan’s and Sheldon Johnston’s honesty in this forum calling it as it is..
I also noticed how many houses were on comfree. Does anybody have their stats? It would be interesting to add the #’s together, to see the real picture.
I do appreciate Sheldon and Sara’s honesty as well. A very facts based approach but maybe a little dry because of that. I guess the comments are for the opinions.
I also enjoy Garth Turners blog greaterfool.ca for the bearish view on real estate. I would recommend anyone looking to buy to give it a read.
Does anyone know if theres a good blog that is bullish on real estate in Edmonton/Alberta/Canada? Is there anything to be positive about with sales dropping, listings/new builds surging?
The price will be going up just for currently low sale number. More and more buyers are standing on line because they are expecting price come down. Even though the prime rate is heading up, but banks still cut down or keep the fix rate no change. 10~20% price down needs nearly 2 years even though in very bad economy. Current forecloser level would not let the price down that much. “Price coming down” will be much slower than “buyer lining up”. Now oversea money has come to “Canadian gov. equity” because of its low risk compared to others. Real estate will be the next still because of same reason. Almost all world market looks very dooming. The money must go somewhere. Canadian is one of the top best now. Even though still looks worse than ever. GO BUY NOW!
I’m not smart enough to be bearish or bullish, but I do know that a few things are substantially different than the 2006/2007 peak:
1. Rates are way lower
2. Inventory is higher
3. Prices are lower
4. There are fewer buyers and more time to complete a deal.
Based on those things alone, it certainly seems like a better time to buy than it did back then when everyone seemed to be in a hurry to do it.
Like most markets, stocks included, there always seems to be a rush in demand just before the peak, when it’s already too late. When things are on the way down, the doomsayers come out and poison the water, but the smart money starts to look for opportunities. They’re called the “smart money’ for a reason – they seem to be good at making it.
There are plenty of dangers in trying to time the market – the Star Phoenix has a decent article on the subject here: http://cot.ag/9Wdx93
Bottom line? With some of the new rules in place, I suspect real estate will become more of a long-term investment than it was in the past 4-5 years and that’s a good thing. If you’re buying because you need a place to live, then you might be able to find a good deal right now. If you’re looking to make a quick buck, then you might have to look elsewhere.
The issue with spending a LOT of money on building a custom home is getting your money back out of it when it comes time to sell. Especially when hundreds of thousands of dollars are spent on features that would only appeal to one owner.
unless there is a double – dip reccession, otherwise it is good time to buy new homes.
This is a great opportunity for new buyers it looks like and for those who bought the top they may need to weather the storm. The Calgary real estate market is much the same and we look forward to a more positive fall.