Here is our update on the Edmonton real estate market. (Previous week's numbers are in brackets). For the past 7 days:
New listings: 166 (188, 291, 289)
# Sales: 173 (202, 204, 217)
Ratio: 104% (107%, 70%, 75%)
# Price changes: 73 (113, 123, 295)
# Expired/Off Market Listings: 151 (108, 244, 103)
Net loss/gain in listings this week: -158 (-122, -157, -31)
Active listings for single family homes: 1488 (1572, 1647, 1775)
Active listings for condos: 1347 (1402, 1436, 1472)
Another week with higher sales than new listings, I'm surprised anyone was out looking at houses at record breaking low temperatures! Either way, something tells me that trend will come to an abrupt stop in the near future…
The REALTORS® Association of Edmonton is reporting 659 residential sales so far this month. We've already beaten last December's total sales of 608, but somewhere around 900 sales is more normal for Edmonton for December. The average sale price currently sits at $322k, single family homes at $368k and condos at $241k (all up from last month).
I was asked if the "4-week moving average" would be put back on the charts… to be honest I think it just mucks it up, but if people like it I will put it back – let me know your thoughts in the comments. Also, as next Friday is Christmas I'll be pretty busy that day and will probably end up posting the weekly report on the 26th. We wish everyone a Merry Christmas, Happy Hanukkah, Fantastic Festivus or happy whatever you choose to celebrate next week!
PS – We will have a special "Year in Review" report with forecasts for the new year for our subscribers soon – don't miss out, subscribe today!
Re: Averages.
The week to week changes in sales, listings, and average prices are largely random. A moving average smooths out things like business days, weather, special events, road closures, sales mix, and delayed reporting of sales and listings. If you want the graphs simpler, keeping the averages and dropping the weekly numbers would be a more informative choice.
I think it gets ‘mucked’ up because your colors were too similar. Moving average is good to have, but try plotting it with a thin black line instead.
“Either way, something tells me that trend will come to an abrupt stop in the near future… ”
You mean due to the Christmas season, or the interest rate hike?
Tara – I meant due to the Christmas season… increasing interest rates will certainly affect the market but so far that looks like it won’t happen until Q2 or Q3 2010.
I think moving averages clutter the chart. It only averages 4 points. Maybe moving averages and also 4-week prices would be good on separate chart.
Q1 will probably be pretty good just due to momentum and it being a spring buying season with lower inventory. I expect at least some period in the next 1-2 years with an abrupt slowdown in sales, rise in inventory and price reductions but which quarter is a wild guess.
Based on what you are expecting a bust in next 1 – 2 years?
Gee I would have thought your whole assumption that there will be a slowdown is a wild guess as you don’t provide any rewasoning for your opinion.
I think some of the sales volume is due to the reduction in interest rates and from people taking the plunge after some of the worst of the financial crises passed. That created a increase in sales but I think without these factors sales would be more reflective of the overall economy (worse).
That’s not to say it’s a “bust”. We have had two periods of abrupt sales slowdown recently – one in late 2007 after the boom and another during the financial crisis. The reason for the wild guess is I have no idea how much steam this current interest driven recovery has left.
It really depends on how one sees it. One may say that the increase in the sales volume is due to decrease in interest rates but the other may say that people were may be waiting for the right time (i.e. more balanced market) to buy and less interest rates are a good incentive to buy.