Here is our update on the Edmonton real estate market as of noon today. (Previous week's numbers are in brackets). For the past 7 days:
New listings: 414 (361, 379, 430)
# Sales: 227 (287, 256, 299)
Ratio: 55% (80%, 68%, 70%)
# Price changes: 205 (220, 204, 214)
# Expired/Off Market Listings: 132 (361, 135, 148)
Net loss/gain in listings this week: 55 (-287, -12, -17)
Active listings for single family homes: 1959 (1934, 2095, 2089)
Active listings for condos: 1587 (1541, 1675, 1673)
Pretty much exactly as expected this week… Here's what it looked like:
The Canadian Housing and Mortgage Corporation (CMHC) released its housing starts press release this week. Highlights from the report:
We expect the single family starts to continue outpacing multi-family starts at least for the near future. Multi-family starts tend to increase when prices increase as single family homes become less affordable. Happy Thanksgiving!
Hmm. Sales are down a bit from previous weeks. However, listings are in line with previous weeks.
Is this it? The traditional seasonal level of activity is catching up?
BTW, PC Financial brought its 5 year Variable down to 2.25% from 2.65% in two weeks…
Do they see sales volume dropping? Or the bond yields are good right now?
Low rates are set to change, MAYBE by spring 2010.
In any case, the SFD average for October 09 was set at $372K.
If you bought in April 08, the average SFD was the exact same price.
Still a good appreciation since Feb 09, when the average SFD was selling for $330K…
What bubble?
I think you need to check your stats. Average SFD’s were not at 330K in Feb 09 (347K). And we are not currently at April 08 values. Look again.
Regardless, I think we will some about 5-7% decrease in prices from Oct to December. Listings remain the same while sales decrease. Pretty easy math.
Just took a look, we are pretty much in line with Sept 08 values right now. Still not bad.
Hey dan, I took a little look at your stats.Average SFD’s look pretty good but I think if you are going to decrease the price then the SFD’s is going fall again.What do you think about that?
If anyone looks at history of Real Estate prices for the last 30 years or so you will notice one thing. Prices for Real Estate right across Canada are VERY high compared to the historic trend. Even if you compare to rents over the same period prices are still way to high. To return to the historic trend prices would need to drop 25% or more! If you compare Canada’s average wage to house price at today’s current value Versus USA average wage to house price when their house prices peaked ( so this softens the numbers even) the numbers are still mind blowing. Canada would need to drop at least 20% off of current house prices to be inline. No matter how the numbers are done Alberta average price is $60-80,000 too high.
The only other big factor here in Alberta is if the USA can recover quick enough then maybe the prices won’t implode here? The other thing to watch is Interest and mortgage rates could rise very quickly if the current recovery turns out to be a false start. This could create another downdraft to housing prices and increase the speed with which home prices fall.
If the USA and Canada can re-inflate the bubble were good for a few more years.
Sooner or later we’ll pay the piper.
Dave,
How are you getting these stats? It doesn’t help, if you just talk about it. Please state the source (i.e. a site, or a book) from where you got this information.
how come there were no prices posted??
The average prices are reset at the beginning of each month, I don’t like to post any averages until there are two weeks worth of data or they can be quite misleading. I’ll post them this Friday. Thanks! Sara.
Ohhh, I see.
Thanks!
Thanks for this info.