Here is our update on the Edmonton real estate market. (Previous week's numbers are in brackets). For the past 7 days:
New listings: 474 (423, 412, 459)
# Sales: 203 (271, 256, 203)
Ratio: 43% (64%, 62%, 44%)
# Price changes: 252 (253, 264, 235)
# Expired Listings: 110 (348, 89, 121)
# Withdrawn/terminated/etc. listings: 36 (40, 20, 32)
Net loss/gain in listings this week: 125 (-236, 47, 109)
Active listings for single family homes: 2486 (2446, 2587, 2570)
Active listings for condos: 1995 (1976, 2057, 2022)
Yesterday Sheldon and I made a bet that the numbers would be lower this week, because it really just felt slower out there. Well, I guess we were right… who knows why? Perhaps some people were getting the feeling it was over heating. Our thoughts are the pattern will repeat for next while – a few cool weeks then a few hot weeks.
Looking at the numbers for the month so far, the Realtors Association of Edmonton is showing 574 residential sales this month which is a much faster pace than last month. The average residential sale price is sitting at $307k, single family homes at $346k and condos at $232 – all down slightly from last month but keep in mind there are only 9 days of data so far.
No pretty charts this week because my laptop crashed yesterday, they'll be back next week. We do hope you enjoy the beautiful weather this weekend! Happy Easter.
Perhaps the holiday / long weekend is part to blame for the lower sales activity this past week?
Anyways, it is good to see a ‘steady’ pace continue.
I think the weather will help things pick up after Easter holiday.
DId anyone read the TD report?
http://www.td.com/economics/special/gb0409_housing.pdf
Thanks Henry for posting this report. I took a quick look, will have to read in more detail later, but are they saying that prices are expected to go down another 20% in Alberta in 2009? Hard to believe, but nonetheless makes it really scary for me to buy currently. I keep going back and forth! One day it seems like the best time to buy, and the next it’s the opposite feeling. Help!!
Hi Julia
Take a look at Bob Truman’s site (under predictions) for last years TD predictions. They were off by over 16%. So I am not sure whether TD is the best source for this kind of information. SOme of the things I am seeing outside on the market i.e. interest rates makes me believe this is probably the best time to buy…
Pretty compelling report. Certainly does introduce increased hesitation on my part to buy right now. 20% is a not insignficant. Would put me in a whole new class of homes or a much better location.
Sheldon & Sara – do you have any thoughts on this? In the first session you do with first time home buyers, can you also help them decide if this is a good time personally for them to buy (e.g., depending on price range of home they are looking for, location, etc?)
Julia,
If you play with the numbers a bit, let’s see, what we have here:
$ 350,000 house prices so far this year, no significant decline until now.
In order to meet TD forecast,
( $350,000- 20% = $280,000 )we have to start to drop about $9000 a month, starting May 1, as we only have 8 month left in the year and keep doing it until December 31 to get to $280,000 average.
And that’s very highly unlikely.
The other thing inmigration, TD predicts 3,592 inter-provincial migration to Alberta this year and we already exceeded that number by many thousands in the first 3 month of the year. (11,125 if I read the chart correctly)
Has anybody noticed that the number of places on the market this year is way less than the same time last year? Sales are relatively normal.
Less supply + equal demand does not equal prices falling faster.
If anything the ‘crash’ is slowing if not nearing an end.
Price/sq ft already already seems to back this up as it’s been basically flat for the last 4 months.
TD is out to lunch, as the big boy’s predictions always are. They basically tell you what happened the year before and since they don’t know if it’ll get better or worse they average it out and say it will continue. It’s ridiculous.
And good point about immigration and interprovincial migration. Last year’s number were way up again which will likely deliver housing demand a year or two later (this year or next). With virtually no new builds this year and ‘excess supply’ trickling away, we may find ourselves undersupplied as early as next year or 2011.
I’d be careful when hoping for that extra 20% off! The best way to get it in my opinion is to go low ball someone selling now who actually still buys this crap that the world is ending, cause you’re sure not gonna get it waiting for averages to come down that much.
Nice article.Thanks for updating the information.Keep it up for your good work..
lol that TD report seems about 12 months too late. Someone had their time machine repaired at Canadian Tire again.
A further %20 drop, maybe, would not totaly discount it. The unemployed usually do not buy houses. Job losses are mounting, more to come. The neighbour accross my alley, his entire family is in Oil (him, his wife and two sons), all four of them have been sitting at home for the last couple months. More houses will be listed shortly (spring season), many many more condoes coming on market.
%20 not that far fetched.
P.S., love the new site layout, nicely done.
To me the forecasted lower inter-provincial migration to AB in 2009 makes sense. Karl, where do you see 11k number you mentioned above? I would agree that fundamentals (employment, oil prices, rent vacancies) indicate further drop in Alberta prices. Historically spring has been often a hot time of the year for number of sales, so it’s not a surprise to me that prices did not drop too far in the spring. According to normal seasonal pattern we could expect sales going down from now (or from a bit later) to December. Wind of speculation could prove any forecast to be incorrect, however. Will see.
The thing that surprises me is why do we have low new listings in Edmonton this year? Some of blog readers indicated it also before, but I cannot find any explanations. Lower house starts this year should not affect beginning of this year yet (in my opinion) because of the time lag between house start and house listed for sale. It seems that people hold to their houses now and I cannot understand why.
Personally I think there are two primary reasons for lower inventory this year. One, house starts were way down last year too relative to years before. And two, I’m kind of thinking a lot of people who were trying to sell have said, ‘screw it, I’ll rent the damn thing out instead.’ A lot of people probably tried to sell before taking a hit on their spec-home but realizing now that they will take a hit, decide that it’s better to try to ride it out.
Job losses will only matter to the degree they affect sales. We haven’t seen any affect yet, though I wouldn’t discount it in the future. Sales over the last few weeks though are on pace to outdo those of last year.
Also, you’re right about more houses being listed in the spring so yes inventory will go up. But what you have look at is the rate it increases, which this year, is a fraction of last. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a peak of around 5000 actives this year compared to a peak of about 7600 last year. That’s almost 35% less than last year.
(P.S. I’m using Edmonton-only numbers. Don’t confuse this with the 10000 listings last year you heard in the EREB’s report; they include surrounding areas as well.)
I have been looking for a new place for the past 9 months and I would guess that there are allot less people fishing this year than last. We have been to numerous mls and comfree houses. Last year there were way more late 40+ somethings trying to get a pie in the sky number for there house so they could retire/work part time ect. Once this dream fell apart and reality set in that they can’t sell thier place for 500k let alone the 700k they originally wanted, they seem to take the house off the market.
The market now seems to have a higher percentage of serious sellers now. And judging from the places we have looked at they tend to fall into two catagories those who bought before the boom and are not highly leveraged and can be flexible and somewhat realistic with pricing and those who bought during the boom who are just praying to get out without a loss, but have completely unrealistic price expectations.
Maybe we havn’t seen the affect yet (Job Losses to sales), but its coming…
Petro-Canada lays off about 200 people in oilsands division
Wed Apr 15, 3:23 PM
The Canadian Press Email Story IM Story Printable View
By The Canadian Press
CALGARY – Petro-Canada (TSX: PCA.TO) is laying off about 200 oilsands employees throughout Alberta.
Spokeswoman Kelli Stevens says the workers were connected to the stalled Fort Hills oilsands project north of Fort McMurray.
The $24-billion project has been shelved since late last year.
Stevens says as many people as possible were redirected to other projects, but some had to be let go for lack of work.
She says it’s a hard fall from a year ago when the company was actively recruiting to find enough people to work when the economy was booming.
Stevens says the layoffs are in no way related to a pending merger with Suncor (TSX: SU.TO).