Here is our update on the Edmonton real estate market. (Previous week's numbers are in brackets). For the past 7 days:
Busy busy week! We thought our office was busy but it looks like the market is picking up. 62% sales to new listings ratio – that is technically a seller's market. I wasn't expecting that. Is it the start of a trend or just a blip? Only time will tell.
You know times are tough when you can’t get an inspector. Starting yesterday morning we set up the first of a few inspections for the weekend and by last night three of the inspectors on my list were all booked with no availability until Monday. I can’t recall that happening since mid 2007. Talking to Terry Fikowski – the owner of the HouseMasters franchise – at almost 10:30pm last night you could almost hear him smile with relief.
Looking at the board stats (not just Edmonton but the whole real estate board) there have been 1152 sales so far this month which should put us well over 1300 sales for the month. The overall average residential sale price its at $311k, single family homes at $349k and condos at $233k – all about the same as last week and up from last month.
P.S. Unfortunately I've had to change the format of the weekly stats to an image, because there are still lots of people out there who think it's cool to copy our work and publish it as their own. I'm sorry it's a little tough to read – if anyone has a better suggestion for me I'm all ears!
Sheldon, could this be because there are better deals to be had out there; sellers are more willing to negotiate or list at more reasonable prices?
To be honest, I’m also feeling that this looks to be a seller’s market, though I konw that sounds like a stretch! But I’ve been watching listings in a few good, more central neighborhoods (read: not windermere, hamptons!!), and it looks like as soon as a property is listed or reduced to a decent price the listing goes pending or sold almost immediately!! I’ve been amazed at how quickly those properties move!
The stats in image format are fine, Sara. I am pretty happy to see that things are picking up.
I am watching closely what’s happening at the higher end, where I want to buy, and there seems to be still a lot of room for prices to come down, with sales relatively stagnant.
So, the increased activity you report must happen at the entry level and in the middle, and that’s good news for our rental properties and the house we are in, right now. That’s comforting
I think high sales in condos indicate activity of first-time home buyers. Lately there were more positive news about stock and oil prices and house activity down in USA. Most of good news was driven by speculators, which could be not sustainable. Now oil and TSX slowly revert back and may stay at this level as there are no fundamental reasons for further growth.
My thoughts cover only the sales part of the market. I cannot understand the new listings part. Does anybody have a good reason why new listings come much slower this year compared to 2008? That seems to me an important driver for higher sales to listings ratio and average sale prices at the end.
New viewer. Just wondering if someone could explain the meaning of the stat categories; “Ratio” and “Net Loss/Gain”. Thanks.
Also, I have been watching one of the other blogs which definitely falls into the “negative outlook” category. Some of the charts and comments on there are very frightening to someone (like me) currently trying to sell. Who should I believe ?
According to Alberta Finance Statistics;
“Alberta population grew 2.6% in the fourth quarter of 2008…Still a desirable destination…”
http://www.finance.gov.ab.ca/aboutalberta/economic_bulletins/current_economic_review.pdf
You can’t compare to 2007 – The only reason it’s tough to get an inspector today is because half of them lost their jobs last year.
Sara – I believe as the website administrator you can disable the right click mouse function so that people can’t copy and paste your work
people can still copy and paste by using the print-screen function
Just make some of the stats totally wrong… then they’ll look like idiots when the copy it!
Bob Trumans site still shows Edmonton SFH prices dropping.
http://www.bobtruman.com/Edmonton_SFH_stats/page_1918017.html
Are there any support groups in Edmonton for people who bought in 2007 ? Not joking, this mess is keeping me up at night.
Wounded, become a realtor and you will only see the good. That will make you feel better.
Wounded, I really feel sorry for you man. Why don’t you ask the realtors that run this blog to see if they can heal your wound.
Wounded,
Join REIN every month they will tell you how great real estate is. Don’t worry time will heal your stupidity in buying at the wrong time. Just look at the bright side someone sold at the right time. I did as well but I should have sold them all. You will survive. If you bought a house you felt that it was worth what you paid so whats the problem?
Maybee volonteer at the local Salvation Army I am sure you will find a few people worse off than you. It will make you feel rich
Wounded,
Maybe write the city a letter thanking them for handing out building permits like crazy, causing most of this mess…. They definitely don’t control things like Ft. Mac does…. The city was the only entity that truly should have seen this coming, and had the power to control it. I hope you all challenged your tax assessment, and hope you include a letter of disgust with your property tax payment. Nice how they de-value our homes then are surprised they get less tax income… brilliant! city of Edmonton…
Our city council is a joke. They waste taxpayer dollars with monolithic behemoths like the art gallery that look horrendous and are a waste of taxpayer dollars, yet cant fix the potholes and clear the roads in winter. Between them I’m sure they couldn’t power a 5 watt bulb
I definitely feel that what I bought is not worth what I paid for it. It’s junk, THAT’s the problem. Now I can’t get rid of it. In the mean time the house I really want is passing me by.
Interesting stats for this past week. I believe it’s safe to say that the spring ‘buyers’ are now out.
There is no doubt that many of the first timers who have been saving over the past few years and waiting for the market to cool are taking advantage.
@wounded – Unfortunately this is the reality of participating in a market-based commodity / product. There are those who bought in early and have reaped the rewards and there are those who bought at the pinnacle and are not. At the end of the day, real estate eventually goes up. If you’re prepared to wait it out then holf tight. One has to ask themselves: “Is it worth the loss?”
If Wounded is “stupid” for buying at the peak, what words do we use to describe those who TOLD HIM to buy at the peak? Those folks with the grins that threatened “being priced out forever” and caught people like Wounded must be very proud of themselves indeed. Pure unbridled Oilberta capitalism at it’s best. There is something called Karma.
Hi folks, I think this is just a blip in the market.
Anyways has anyone heard of Trensdetter homes, this is an offshoot for pacesetter homes. Their prices are much lower and are poised to bring the market value of double attached garage homes down quite a bit. I imagine they might not have all the upgrades but are good for first time buyers that will do upgrades on their own.
I currently have a double attached garage home 1434 sqft, 3 beds, 3.5 baths in Rutherford for $300,000.00. This deal was struck just a couple days ago. I think this will be a good seller for first time home buyers that would rather have a double attached garage home.
I’m glad all my previous offers fell through and that I gave new homes another shot. I lucked out.
If anyone has any opinions about them please let me know.
My feelings on the recent upswing in home sales is the same thing you see in the stock market, its called a “dead cat bounce”. Just a bounce up before it continues its path down.
Unfortunately some people will lose a few dollare (if they sell) but for the majority this is great. Prices continue to drop, life gets more affordable all around, and more pick me up trucks on the road out of town.
Keep it coming…
One would think deals like that would put downward pressure on the resale market. Then again, with resale, you’re moreso paying for the land than the house sitting on it. For people that are not attracted to the location or style of homes in the established neighbourhoods, driving a bit further to newer communities on the outskirts may be the trick for value. The only concern (I find) is that when you compare a newer house to an older one in the same price range, the newer one may not have the same build quality despite being newer. Some people are leary of newer built homes, others think paying as much for used and walking on other people’s carpets is silliness. It depends on the buyer, right? Myself, I prefer a rock solid bungalow with hardwood over plywood rather than newer homes with less cross bracing, “structural wood beams” (clapboard I-beams) and sparce cross bracing.
Someone once said that if a house was built like an old bungalow was nowadays it would be 1200 square feet and cost $1,000,000! Maybe an exaggeration, but it shows you can’t compare apples and oranges.
Cheers,
E-town
^ Is it a dead cat bounce? Who really knows, I know that I don’t. Maybe its the first ‘upward’ movement in the market, maybe it’s not..who knows. And if you do know, the I sugges you get out there and capitalize on it.
Sorry for the spelling errors
Fred:
Your post made my day. The uptick might not be entirely dead-cat-bounce though. There may be people with townhomes or condos looking to move into houses that are not going to benefit from waiting for further price drops (price wash scenario). If these folks are thinking it’s wise to “beat the rush” and buy while there is more selection and hungrier buyers, then even this old bear can agree: that’s just smart thinking. First timers? Might be okay to wait a bit yet for them – so long as they watch interest rates as closely as they are housing prices!
Cheers,
E-town
No soup for you! ONE YEAR!
Hey there, pretty sure this is the wrong forum for this, but thought I’d give it a try! I’m preparing to put my home on the market, it’s a family home in a good SW neighborhood in Edmonton. The kitchen is dated, kind of a bleached oak from the early 90′s. I was thinking of repainting it in white and adding some moulding etc to spruce it up and replacing my original appliances with stainless steel – though it seems that dark woods, granite countertops are all the rage now (but redoing all of that would cost too much). Are white kitchens considered outdated if done nicely? Would you pass over a house that has a white kitchen? I’d really appreciate some advice, or a referral to where might be a better place to post this….
Thank you all!
The people who told him to buy at the peak should be called criminal. The people who sold should be called brilliant. But us Bulls did not really realize how bad things would become I sort of thought we were at a peak but did not think it would last for years. I never thought my wage would be divided by five within 1 year. Maybee this is what you call Karma. There are still alot of bulls out there just take a look at http://www.myreinspace.com so maybee the people who told him to buy just made a mistake. Unfortunatly for wounded he is the only one to be punished
E-Town you shouldn’t put all new home builders into the same bucket. There are some smaller builders (not speculators) that know how to build a quality house. Ryan you should look at some of the things E-Town is saying because they are true. If possible you should consider quality as well as price. as with most purchases, cheapest isn’t always the best option.
Did anyone go to the Full House Lottery show homes? I went yesterday and the “workmanship” was pathetic. Whoever painted the homes managed to get paint on the floor to ceiling cabinets in one home and in another couldn’t keep the roller off the ceiling.
They “value” these homes at $1.2-1.4 million, yet with what they have put in them you could build the house for about $600K. On the sign on the way into the area lots start at $276,900. What kind of idiot pays that much for a standard city lot?
There are currently so many overbuilt condos in the city and spec homes that have been on the market for over a year now that eventually the whole mess is going to crater on itself when builders start having their credit ratings dropped.
I actually like a white kitchen but only if it is done to look old fashioned or antique. I stayed at a bed and breakfast once and they had a white kitchen. It went well with how things were set up. Anything can look good if you think it through and decorate it tastefully.
Being that your house is this old you have solid wood well built cabinets. This is a bonus, all you need to do is upgrade your hardware and fixtures. I would definitely change counter tops to maybe a newer laminate.
If you have fluorescent lighting in your kitchen you should take it out and use rail lighting or spot lighting. Fluorescent lighting is usually a dead a give away that a house is old.
Bottom line there are many upgrades you can do yourself for cheap, shop around for prices and provide the labor yourself. Examples are switches, light fixtures, cabinet hardware, door handles, laminate flooring, paint the list goes on. I think a well landscaped backyard with a nice colorful flower bed would probably add value. Think about it, newer homes have such small cramped backyards. There is no gardening space, or space for a gazebo, hotub, water feature what not. If you want a bigger yard you end up shelling out an extra 50,000-100,000 for those corner pie lots.
You never know after all this work you might have a new found appreciation for your house and might chose to live in it. Newer houses are horrible, and the land is small. If I could afford it and if my parents were willing to move onto a retirement type property I would buy their house and do the upgrades. Nothing like a solid well built house from back in the day.
I did, I never really looked at the detail work I was just stunned by all the fancy stuff. I was ooohhh and ahhhhh lol!
I do notice that the showhomes for most builders lack the attention to detail.
This being said with housing starts being so slow, builders are starting to get rid of contractors that did shotty work. Builders know whose work caused them to go back into a house for warranty repairs.
Hopefully this slow down signals a time where builders pay more attention to the finer details.
Mike even with the shotty work, would you not take a house that you basically bought for a 100 bucks? So what if there some minor issues it is still worth a whole lot more than you paid.
“The people who sold should be called brilliant.”
Whether it was brilliance or just dumb luck in some cases, a win is a win. Maybe some kids will get to go to college or own their own home because their parents had good timing.
“The people who told him to buy at the peak should be called criminal.”
I don’t feel sorry for them that much. The bears were on the forums begging people to cool their heads and consider what will happen if price gains were not sustainable. A lof of bears called the bubble very closely. Even most bears were conservative about the price oil would crash to. Everyone was cheerleading “$200 oil forever!” and “No more busts! Just one crazy hyper-speed boom from now on!” Sounds ridiculous when you hear it now, but that was the pitch back then. People were extremely bullish here in Alberta – and many said we were an economic island and poised to weather the storm and even uniquely immune to a global recession.
Face it. People were foaming at the mouth with greed.
Cheers,
E-town
you know, i’ll never understand it either – in some of those new areas that are so far out in the middle of nowhere, lots start at just under 400 k! Not to mention many many lots for over that price. I’m really confused – are people actually spending that kind of money to live out there???
(sarcasm on)
Haven’t you heard? We’re out of land here on the Alberta prairies(again), and they’re not making any more! (again)
400K is nothing. It will be worth 10 million in the year 3021. Gotta think LONG TERM man!
(sarcasm off)
Cheers,
E-town
E-town, your posts really make my day. I missed your posts, and am glad to see you’re back!
My next door neighbour painted their cabinets white. Looks good if you do a good job and if you keep them clean (which they don’t). Looks like hell if they are dirty.
What I’ve seen is you pay one way or the other if its out of date, you either get a lower selling price or you pay to upgrade it.
Best of luck.
But E-Town space travel is nearly upon us. Better sell now because when we can build on the moon land prices here on earth will plummit.
Sorry. I already bought the moon on the Soviet black market – it’s now just another line item on my REIN portfolio. I’ll rent you a nice 2 acre lot in a quiet crater with a view of the Earth for $250,000 per month. Last I heard, they found oil in the moon’s dust, called “tardust” (like stardust, sans “s”) so I will be leasing large portions of the moon to Syncrude – Space division. Nice thing about the moon is you don’t need to do an environmental impact study because the place is ALREADY moonscape, unlike the poor Boreal forest which is being turned *into* moonscape as we speak.
Ah, capitalism. I’m so great.
Cheers,
E-town
The strongest year-over-year average weekly earnings of employees growth among the provinces was reported in Alberta (+7.9%) and Saskatchewan (+6.3%)
The average weekly earnings of employees increased 1.1% from December to $823.71 in January
http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/090331/dq090331c-eng.htm
Hey JJ:
Yeah, been busy with work. Like everyone else, I am eagerly watching how things are about to play out this spring – should be an interesting time. A lof of questions that have been on people’s minds will soon be answered. Ah, now where did I put my crystal ball…
Cheers,
E-town
I wish housing prices would drop already. The land developers are holding their land prices and this isn’t helping.
I just found out that if you buy cheap relative to todays market you get even worse crap than the crap that is already out there. Builders are accustomed to their large profits over the last years and to keep profits they are just cutting more corners. In the end the average consumer is not going to benefit from these price declines. Only time they will benefit is when the economy actually completely goes into the gutter.
Anyways I’m watching the market closely. My company builds equipment for power transmission. Big circuit breakers, switches and motor starters and what not. We are doing good. This is only because we are getting work from small upgrades or replacing old equipment. We have not seen much for large oil patch expansions. There is stuff in the plans but nothing solid. I have heard through the many engineering firms about all the layoffs and all the cancellations. These firms are the first in line to get hit, the blue collar force soon follows.
Last but not least this is my fifth offer that has fallen through. I have been very close in 4 out of 5. I think I’m making another offer this weekend. Getting right back on the horse. Its like dating, eventually one works out for ya. Every time I look at another house I learn more, I think I’m going to end up being one of the most educated buyers out there.
Anyone know anything about the new fire codes? Is this going to cost people that have their house under construction?
Just want to put this out there, curious how people are thinking….
Do you want to live in new neighborhood e.g., Rutherford, Hamptons, Windermere?
Or would you prefer to live in a more centrally located established neighborhood but can’t afford to?
My sense is that people are being forced out further and further out of the city to lower quality homes cookie cutter hoems with small lots (and if you’re lucky a nice powerline overhead) simply because homes are so much more affordable that way. But perhaps I’m wrong and these newer neighborhoods are attractive?
Again just out of curiousity….