This was the scene at the West Edmonton Mall this past weekend when we mistakenly thought we could take in dinner and a movie:
(I know the pic sucks I… took it with my cell phone).
Anyway, what we found was a waiting list at every restaurant of at least an hour, so it was off to the food court where we could hardly find a seat. At the movies the line was right out the doors winding to the top of the mall stairs and there was hardly enough room to pack everyone into the concession line ups.
The most recent consumer confidence numbers I could find were for January at 103, up from November's 99, "reflecting increased belief that the housing and retail markets favour the consumer," said the survey by PricewaterhouseCoopers. Perhaps Edmontonians are even more confident than the survey suggests.
This is the only place in Edmonton especially during winter.
It is a great picture. I was there that day, and picked up a 20kg bag of basmati rise.
Analysts except that consumers enjoy the small luxuries of dining out (>20 dollar entrees) and movie-going instead of gourmet dining or chalet getaways. So, in fact, this photo may be evidence consumer non confidence.
Hey, did you get the number of the guy on the stairs with the purple shirt?
sorry should have been <20 dollar entries.
I’ve noticed that there have been a lot more people at West Ed during the day…
I’ve come to the conclusion that more people have lost their jobs and are hanging out at the mall when they’d usually be working.
How exactly does people going out for dinner provide proof of consumer confidence?
Maybe everyone has decided to stop saving for a house, since they’ll never be able to afford one anyways. That would leave them with disposable income for a night out.
Title should read “Consumer Unconfidence in Edmonton – Evidence we’ve given up on owning a house”
Things are getting crazy lately…
What’s happening in the past 12-18 months is crazy. Oil was at $140+ a barrel, the Canadian dollar was at $1,10 US, gold was at $1200Us an ounce, anybody could qualify for a 40 year, $0 down mortgage…
Last year, at some point, all was well everywhere. The economy was good, everybody worked, etc.
Now all is doomed…if you believe what the media tells you.
My point is that I believe that the media has a very important role in twisting facts and spreading disinformation.
We all know that everything right now is super volatile. One day the TSX is down 300 pts, the next it is up 200.
If we look at the WHOLE picture, things are not all bad. The media focusses its fear mongering on all is over because in Florida home prices are down 60% or the tar sands are finished because oil is down at $40 a barrel.
If I look back 4 years, oil was at $40 a barrel and Ft Mac was doing extremely well…
Anybody has a clue of why we are where we are now?
Besides the media spin that seems to decide agendas, who is pulling the strings?
Please don’t mention that wacko Garth Turner and his dooms day cult…
Well, some homeowner thinks that house prices will be picking up.
Put their house on the market in November 2007, for 729K, then reduced 5 times to 635K, by August 2008.
Now the house is back for $659K.
Either they are hopeful that prices are going up, or they are trying to get back a 25K investment in recent renovations …
Most of the other homes that make a reappearance are coming in lower than when they dropped off.
…because we live in a society that is full of chicken littles who believe everything they hear on TV. People with no critical thinking capabilities, including those chearing for the old overheated market as well!
Unfortunately, it is easier to believe the schmoes on TV that pretend to have the ultimate answer… the same schmoes that predicted the oil barrel to reach the $200 mark in 2009…
To me, medias information is as real as these “Doctocs” that endorse products in Infomercials!!!
Remember Orwell’s Ignorance is strength and you will remain sane my friend!
line ups in Edmonton … who knew.
The media report on what HAS happened. They will then try and crystal ball by extrapulating what has happened and modeling what the effect would be if it continued for years ahead. The truth is that by the time you read something in the media (boom or bust) it is too late – it has already happened. By the time you start reading about property price increases and the market being better you would have missed out on the opportunity to participate in the recovery.
Edmonton consumer is confident because there was lineup at restaurants in WEW on a weekend? oooook… I’m curious to see what other evidence they throw at you
I now work and live in Ontario in a large city where the manufacturing sector is absent. There are mainly government jobs and retirees.
The housing sector is normal: no prices reductions and no flooding of listings. Actually a new subdivision of 75 homes is being built and “sold” signs are going up on a regular basis. Last week end our Costco parking lot was as full as it was back before Christmas and there are no floodings of retail store sales. I spoke to sales folks at Sport Mart, etc and they have notices a bit of a slowdown, but similar to last January.
What I have described above is exactly the opposite of what the mainstream media is exploiting.
There are actually big cities in canada that are doing well, despite of what the media tells you.
Remember: when the media announces that – for example – Nissan laid off 20,000 employees (in fact 9% or their payroll) they send a message of panic and the TSX, etc go down. What they should say in these dire times is that 91% of their payroll are still working.
But that could be too positive, right?
Edmonton Expat – I totally agree with you.
Well i just came across a very interesting article on that point. It appears that the CREA is fudging the numbers in reporting home sale prices. No doubt to pull prices back only to have the market rebound once commodity prices improve.
Have a read: http://www.househunting.ca/buying-homes/story.html?id=3fa72bda-a578-465d-975d-32e898ed81af
Wow Mike, so you don’t believe CREA but you believe some clown who has no knowledge of real estate and works for Canwest, a company that is going broke and has hundreds of millions of dollars of debt and no ability to pay. What other words of wisdom can you share with us oh wise one?
I spoke to some of my competitors today and they are making sales. One was a highrise downtown and the other a townhome project. Both are immediate possession. Product is moving and spring is around the corner.
I’m finally feeling a little optimistic.
Poor Sheldon.
Doesn’t matter what he posts, there are a bunch of people foaming at the mouth, keys poised over the keyboard, just dying for their chance to post something negative to prove they were right in not buying a house yet.
Someday soon they’ll be kicking themselves because house prices are going up and they waited too long.
Such is life.
That should have read, “fingers” poised over the keyboard.
I’m sure that he appreciates the heated discussions that drive up the traffic on his site.
As long as people don’t resort to personal attacks.
Hey, the difference of opinion is what makes this blog fun to read. Everyone just relax and go to the mall this weekend. Let’s meet by the skating rink and then pose for a picture for next week’s posting. I have to admit, I am a little surprised by how many people are in that shot…..then I realized that I couldn’t actually find one person who was carrying a bag. There are a couple of purses and man satchels, but no bags from stores. LOL….consumer confidence on the rise!!
ps anyone looking to buy condos please come down 111th to buy. The remax signs are becoming an eyesore.
My mistake,
If you look really hard there is a boy with a sportcheck bag…….where’s waldo?
Obviously you didn’t read the article Car – the data isn’t compiled or analyzed by Canwest. The data was collected & analyzed by National Bank. Thanks for pointing out your own ignorance. Might want to check the facts next time.
The answer to the ultimate answer to the ultimate question is 42, everyone knows that.
(reference: Hithikers guide to the galaxy)
GM: you’ve made a good point. It’s like this fellow Garth Turner and his distinguished legion of followers…
Speaking of Garth turner…
This guy is being acclaimed as some Messiah over at his blog. His followers talk like they’re in some cult. The guy is not a prophet; he only reports the obvious, (it’s everywhere in the media) puts his own doom style spin on it, writes a book about it and makes dough on the back of suckers.
In all honesty, he is more wrong than right. His first book (2020: New Rules for the New Age) he predicted that the TSX would surge to 50,000 pts by 2010!!!
If you need a house, buy one. The same bozos that state that they save money by renting will never own anything. Where they put the extra money? The TSX? Mutual funds?
The only thing that would cause the TSX to surge to 50,000 would be a devaluation of the currency… which is quite possible!
But then again, in that case, it’d probably cost $20 to buy a can of coke. haha
This has been an awful week for the DOW. I’m guessing that it could get even worse tomorrow.
Tumbling home values boost mortgage defaults in Calgary
http://www.calgaryherald.com/Homes/Tumbling+home+values+boost+mortgage+defaults+Calgary/1279897/story.html
More Calgarians are defaulting on mortgages and losing their homes in a toxic stew of rising job losses, falling house prices, the credit crunch and ill-timed investments.
Up-to-date statistics on foreclosures are hard to come by, but the number of Albertans who have fallen at least three months behind in mortgage payments has jumped to 1,771 from 649 in 11/2 years.
Since November, lenders have begun 949 foreclosure proceedings at Calgary’s courthouse–more than in the six months before that, according to court data collected by Foreclosures Canada Information Systems, an investment company. And increasingly, those proceedings aren’t ending in the borrower’s favour because their property value has eroded, says company founder Wade Fenner.
“They’re going to throw in the key or walk away,” Fenner said.
The most prominent foreclosure law firm in Calgary said business roughly doubled from 2007 to 2008, and that growth hasn’t shown signs of relenting.
Is Edmonton different?
http://www.calgaryherald.com/Homes/Tumbling+home+values+boost+mortgage+defaults+Calgary/1279897/story.html
Tumbling home values boost mortgage defaults in Calgary
‘We have never seen this many foreclosures’
“If I look back 4 years, oil was at $40 a barrel and Ft Mac was doing extremely well…”
While you’re looking back, why not also compare the cost of doing business between now and then. Conventional oil has seen 250% increases in well servicing costs in Alberta in recent years. I think the tar boys also got hit by hungry workers with REALLY big mortgages and pay expectations. I am failing to see how going back to 2004 oil prices means 2004 level profits without returning to 2004 level business costs.
Your math is broken.
Cheers,
E-town
It’s still a reasonable number, considering that we have witnessed the biggest boom in Calgary’s (and Edmonton’s) history and the subsequent worst recession in the world’s history.
One can not seriously think that such events will be completely victimless.
The mild increase in consumer confidence is actually a consequence of falling prices. The same PWC survey had confidence dropping through the “boom” as housing became more and more unattainable and fuel hit $1.40. So a house that wasn’t percieved as a good buy at 500,000 now doesn’t look as bad at 400,000, my sense is people are still in “wait and see” mode when it comes to major purchases (hence record low auto sales, air line routes being cut ect and indeed slow home sales)