Sheldon, Nathan, Derek, Lisa and I (and over 800 other people) are at the annual 2009 Housing Forecast Seminar presented by the Realtor's Association of Edmonton this morning at the Shaw Conference Centre. This year there were a record number of attendees, probably because we're all looking for answers in the time of "economic uncertainty." Sheldon and I always attend and always come away with our brains full of useful information and this morning is no exception.
Ron Gilbertson, President and CEO of the Edmonton Economic Development Corporation just finished his talk on the Edmonton Business and Commercial Climate, here are some of the key points:
- Edmonton has the second lowest unemployment rate in Canada
- Edmonton is 5th in Canada for full time employment (a significant improvement)
- We are the lowest in Canada for business bankruptcies and fifth lowest for personal bankruptcies
- GDP growth per capita is 25% ahead of Calgary, Vancouver, Toronto, Montreal and Ottawa
- GDP growth per capita has increased almost twice as much as Calgary over the last number of years
- RBC and CIBC both projected an increase in GDP for Alberta in '09
- Conference Board of Canada projects Edmonton to lead all Canadian cities for GDP in '09
- While many projects in the Oil and Gas sector have been put on hold, there are still $172Billion underway
Patrick Adams, Chair of the Home Builders Association talked about trends in home design:
- The three hottest styles are Pre WWII (Arts & Crafts bungalows, Victorians, Tudors and Colonial), Mid-century modern (flat roofs, open floor plans, geometric shapes) and Mediterranean (stucco, tile roofs, grand entries, central stairs, wrought iron accents
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Buyers today are looking for "Ensuite spa retreats", kitchens as gathering places, modern clean lines, new colours, and spaces to eat, work, relax and entertain
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Green is hot and it varies in degree:
- Dark greens are very eco-conscious, motivated by sense of responsibility to the planet, mid-upper income, strong sense of community pride
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Medium greens tend to be young parents concerned about children's future, affluent and key values include hope. convenience and prevention
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Light greens are less eco-consious, emerging middle class and 20-something city dwellers, embrace eco movement because it's cool (eco-chic)
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Non-greens – all ages, focused on survival or material gain (depending on level of wealth)
Current technologies in demand by home buyers include home theatre rooms, home health care installations, micro display based TVs, lighting automation, security systems, iPod products, smart sound systems
Ian Glassford, Chief Economist Servus Credit Union was "realistic, but optimistic" looking at Edmonton's economic situation:
- Before 1985 the global economiy averaged a recession every 4.5 years that lasted 15 months and impacted the economy b y-3.25%
- After 1985 recessions globally have occured every 11 years, lasted 8 months and impacted the economy -.9% on average
- Our current situation is not over yet and there is potential for more shocks but the good thing is the problem was recognized quickly with strong coordinated action and no sign of protectionism and other mistakes of the past
- In Canada we are in better shape than most so far but we will be affected, commodities are a concern
- In Alberta we are quite solid so far, with a strong long term case fo oil investment, we will see improved in migration but we will be affected
- His forecast is that we are not done yet, the recovery will be longer and less robust, more shocks are likely. We should see rate cuts in January and March, deflation is a concern for some time
- He pointed out some positives for Edmonton real estate – new purchasers are coming over time, new supply is dropping to match demand, rates are coming down and improving affordability (he did up a great chart I'll post when I can)
- He urged us all to remember that while there is pain in recession there is also opportunity. What we are going through is nothing new, we just haven't seen it in a while so manage intelligently and remember after recession comes recovery
Richard Goatcher from CMHC presented the quarterly stats that we've already discussed on this blog. Charlie Pond, the new President of the Realtor's Association of Edmonton closed out the seminar with stats about Edmonton real estate that I'll post later today. Ciao for now!
