Here is our update on the Edmonton real estate market. (Previous week's numbers are in brackets). For the past 7 days:
New listings: 446 (390, 380, 94)
# Sales: 145 (111, 82, 37)
Ratio: 33% (28%, 22%, 39%)
# Price changes: 274 (242, 156, 94)
# Expired Listings: 197 (215, 171,851)
# Canceled/withdrawn/terminated listings: 23 (21, 11, 13)
Net loss/gain in listings this week: 81 (43, 116, -807)
Active listings for single family homes: 2419 (2350, 2347, 2258)
Active listings for condos: 1777 (1688, 1625, 1554)
So far this month there have been 442 sales…compared to last January we may only have half as many sales by the end of the month. The overall average sale price sits at $313k (up from $310 in December), single family homes are at $346k (down from $350k) and condos are at $230k (about the same as December).
We had a question/comment this week from "Jason":
eagerly waiting your response sheldon – will housing prices take a significant hit? or has the market stabilized at this level would you say?
So Sheldon wrote up a thorough response:
What is “significant”? To some people any amount is significant and to some it's a whole other amount. It definitely depends on your perspective. Your questions made me realize I haven’t really proffered any predictions for this year yet. Over a year ago I had a conversation with Bear claw (who runs a very good blog) Alberta Market Watch and we exchanged opinions. Frankly predictions are funny because as soon as they’re made they are wrong:
- I think the average price will come down in part due to lower sales in the higher end properties of 1,000,000 plus.
- I think we’ll see price compression in the 300 – 350 range for single family homes. Due to lowering supply in that category, this will also help the builders gain some footing on starts in the second half of the year as buyers look for more options.
- Certain areas and types of product will have steeper declines, and some areas will remain relatively flat, to the point where I could even see slight improvements in pricing, in some areas and types of housing.
- Employment will be a major factor. We know there will be job losses in the economy. How many will make a significant difference in property values. If overall employment remains stable then price declines will be more or less related to supply and demand.
- Pent up demand. If there is improvement in the economy in the second and third quarters, or the economy shows signs of stability and improvement, I think you’ll see the people who are just waiting for a signal that things have stabilized or are improving, pull the trigger. This could possibly increase prices albeit, in the short term, even with higher inventory. There are a lot of buyers we are working with that are just waiting for those signals.
- Credit. It is really tough to determine how much, from a quantitative point of view, the credit restrictions have lowered demand. In other words, how many buyers that could have bought 4 months ago can’t now due to change in credit restrictions? (I don’t mean the 0 down or 40 year amortization crowd either).
- Obama factor. Although 1 person can’t really make a difference, one person can really make a difference. If he just became the captain of the titanic after hitting the ice berg and the previous captain took the life raft to Texas, then only time and market forces will fix things. The US has a hard road ahead and the past few months have shown the world how dependant on them the world economies are.
- Fundamentals. The fundamentals are better here then down south. Very interesting BMO report out recently (thanks to Tony Baumgautner with the bank of Montreal forwarding that to us).
So my prediction is that what goes up, goes down, goes back up and then to it will go down and in the end it goes on. Have a great weekend!
