Here is our update on the Edmonton real estate market. (Previous week's numbers are in brackets). For the past 7 days:
New listings: 390 (380, 94, 107)
# Sales: 111 (82, 37, 65)
Ratio: 28% (22%, 39%, 61%)
# Price changes: 242 (156, 94, 75)
# Expired Listings: 215 (171,851, 184)
# Canceled/withdrawn/terminated listings: 21 (11, 13, 17)
Net loss/gain in listings this week: 43 (116, -807, -159)
Active listings for single family homes: 2350 (2347, 2258, 2722)
Active listings for condos: 1688 (1625, 1554, 1878)
Last year at this time the sales to new listings ratio was at 30%, so we're not far off last year. I was expecting to see more sales this week, simply because things seem busier out there (more showings, more offers etc). One thing that could be slowing things up a bit are conditions – it is harder to get a mortgage these days, so the condition dates are being written for a longer period of time. Sales are not reported until all conditions are removed so the start to the year could be slower because of longer condition periods.
So far the overall average residential sale price is $310,040, almost unchanged from December. The average sale price for single family homes has dropped again to $340k (from $350) and condos have increased again to $237k (from $231k).
So, is it too early to say EREB’s projection of ‘SFH’s levelling off around $350,000 in 2009′ was a little on the high side?
If I were the EREB Prez, I think I would just stop projecting home prices. The conflict of interest results in price projections that are just too embarrassing.
Travis,
I don’t think anyone listens to ereb anymore. I mean he just pulled the $350k number out of you know where with nothing to back it up. I think there’s enough negative press out there that the average person will not be fooled by their projections/news releases anymore. In a years time he’ll look like a fool just like last years prez.
There are way to many variables right now for EREB to legitimately predict anything. What is the size of the government stimulus, how will it be applied, how will the american’s do, what will happen to the oil sands, etc, etc?? Their intent is to stimulate sales, they are not fortune tellers.
“Their intent is to stimulate sales” Exactly, because their nothing more then salesman.
Sara,
is there a cut-and-paste error in your stats? The active listings look identical to last week’s numbers.
The bottom line is Edmonton is loosing more jobs than anywhere else in Canada. Jobs = sales = price increases.
Mdm…thanks for pointing that out, I did forget to update the inventory numbers on the post and I have corrected them.
@Les – first off, where did you get that stat from???
Maybe he got it from here:
http://www.cbc.ca/canada/edmonton/story/2009/01/09/edm-alberta-labour-stats-dec.html
There were 3 articles in the Calgary Herald today about layoffs (one oil/gas, one call centre and one manufacturing). The one in the following link (oil/gas related) is I think the first of many many more to come.
I think now all the signs are in place that we are headed for some very difficult times, for many layoffs, for continuing house price drops and maybe years of uncertainty. The pain is about to begin for us. Best of luck.
Opps forgot the link:
http://www.calgaryherald.com/business/True+energy+slashes+head+office+workers/1201680/story.html