A recent poll commissioned by Royal LePage found that almost half (49%) of Canadians surveyed agree that the economic stimulus measures anticipated as part of tomorrow's Canadian federal budget announcement will have a positive impact on Canada's real estate market.
Based on the comments on this blog, I'm not sure if they included any Albertans in their poll… just kidding…
82% of Canadians agree that the inauguration of Barack Obama will have a positive impact on
consumer confidence in Canada.
According to Royal LePage's "Home Price Survey ," in late 2008, the combination of a global economy in recession and shrinking employment figures did much to dampen consumer confidence, diminish home sales and cause house prices to drop.
Of the housing types surveyed, the average price of detached bungalows dipped by 4.8 per cent to $319,640, followed by standard condominiums, which decreased by 5.2 per cent to $233,230, year-over-year. The average price of standard two-storey properties fell by 6.3 per cent to $376,140, year-over-year.
The larger cities that have seen the greatest increase in prices this decade, including Toronto, Edmonton, Calgary and Vancouver, recorded declining house prices.
Accoring to Phil Soper, president and chief executive, Royal LePage Real Estate Services: "The balance of 2009 should see gradual and continuous improvements as the effects of low mortgage rates along with efforts by governments and central banks to get the economy back on its feet again begin to take hold."
*Photo Credit, Canadian Press.
Well, if a shill like Phil Soper says it, it MUST be true lol
Considering that we haven’t seen the peak of the layoffs here in Canada or the foreclosures in the states, I have to question the validity of this report. Especially when it’s claiming things will settle in 2009, not 2010 or 2011, which the most positive economists are forecasting.
“The balance of 2009 should see gradual and continuous improvements as the effects of low mortgage rates along with efforts by governments and central banks to get the economy back on its feet again begin to take hold.”
So he’s calling the bottom?
Does anyone honestly think that with the tens of THOUSANDS of layoffs happening in Alberta’s energy sector right now that things will improve over the next few months?
If we’re lucky, I think that we’re maybe halfway towards the bottom. Another 10% across the board seems realistic.
It seems to me that there are people out there who are rubbing there hands together because things are going badly. Didn’t get their fair share in the boom? Happy that the people who did are losing some of their gains? Whatever…
Real estate can be a great investment. Just like any investment however, caveat emptor!
But keep the sky’s falling comments are tiring.
Guys, just remember, first the temporary workers with the 2 year visa will be sent home, before any Albertan loosing jobs so do not panic.
Things will improve before any serious layoff happens here in Alberta.
Oil is already $ 45 US and the new President just started to work a few days ago.
Anyone I talk to, business as usual everywhere in Edmonton.
Only a fool would believe Royal Lepage after their 2008 forecast. Royal Lepage needs to stop serving their self interest give credible information.
Royal Lepage 2008 forecast: Edmonton prices to rise by 1%. Actual 2008 Data: Detached Bungalows down 10.5%. Standard Two Storey down 8.9%. Standard Condominium down 14%
http://www.newswire.ca/en/releases/archive/December2007/17/c3567.html
http://www.newswire.ca/en/releases/archive/January2009/26/c2563.html
It sounds like you’re allowing emotions to decide how you see the current housing market instead of the facts.
If you’re going to suggest real estate as a great investment, why not look at it like you would a stock or business market? And I don’t mean by trying to pump and dump.
In response to Nate…
I think the negativity is where a lot of the emotions are. The way some people talk, capitalism is going to be a thing of the past. Are we headed down? Yes but how far is anyone’s guess. My question is only why your type seems happy about it.
Real estate is not a good investment? I think it has been and will likely continue to be so Don’t assume to know my style of investment.
http://www.greaterfool.ca/
This site is more realistic and having more readers than Royal LePage forecast.
Polls…….yeah right.
I can word a poll whose results will show that 75% of the respodents believe that the man in the moon is made of green cheese, and that his one bedroom condo on east Jasper Avenue will hit $750K in 12 months.
It is all in the wording of the questions…..and where you ask them. Looks like “manufactured consent” is the latest tactic these clowns are trying.
I’m not happy about people losing jobs or life savings, my business thrives when customers are spending.
I didn’t say that Real Estate wasn’t a good investment. But you have to do your due diligence. If a company was misleading the public and hyping their own stock despite obvious trouble ahead, like this report, they would get heavily fined.
…half (49%) of Canadians surveyed agree that the economic stimulus…will have a positive impact on Canada’s real estate market.
That just tells me 49% of people in Canada borrowed too much against bubble-driven equity gains and MUST remain hopeful.
Classic. Sometimes people become optomistic about recoveries just because it feels like we have been in a down turn for so long and naturally the upswing must be coming. Well in some down turns that might have been true. BUT this is a different kind of down turn. The financial system nearly collapsed! This is no ordinary correction, this is a fundamental rebasing of everything from the price of copper to the price of housing. Property might be a good investment but don’t expect the days of 20%p.a to return any time soon. Same goes for the stock market as well. Put your hard earned into your mortgage. If you don’t have a mortgage pay for some extra education. You will probably appreciate in value quicker than you think.
http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/01/06/the-gospel-of-phil/
I have stopped reading Royal LePage articles after their outrageous forecasts last year. They try to manipulate information to serve their own interest.
There are tons of financial institutions out there that give unbiased opinion regarding econonic and housing outlook for free. For example, TD bank:
http://www.td.com/economics/qef/prov1208.pdf
It just makes me upset to see this.
People sure do want to see Alberta fail. I can honestly say, I have seen no change in buying or spending habits in Alberta. The housing market has definitley be slower (much due to the daily doom and gloom) forecasts which have frozen people as they wait for the sky to fall. We’ll all make it through this a lot better if we refuse to believe the garbage we’re fed every day in the media. Once people stop spending (out of media fed fear) then we’ll truly have problems. This is a “super rich created, and media fed” recession. They want your assets for cheap and they’ll do and say anything to make that happen.
Stop believing what you see and hear on the news, it’s all paid commercials that are put there for propaganda purposes. Remember who owns the media…and remember what their one agenda is…Money! They wouldn’t give you any real advice that had any value to your pocket book. If there’s money to made, be sure you won’t be told. Just like the $147.00 oil barrel was a joke. They got suckers to believe you could still make a fortune…the price was going to break $200.00 (boasted the media on the front pages of papers and any media available). Do you think the super rich were selling at or about $147.00? Think about it, any mainstream media tip which tells you how you’re going to make money is simply misinforming you so the “super-rich can clean your wallet.
But, don’t underestimate the power of the media, they can make anything happen if enough people believe them. Fortunately more and more people are starting to understand this. The simple rule always is and always will be..”follow the money”.
Don’t buy the recession, buy goods and services and we’ll all be just fine.
That is the message that any responsible media would put out.
“It’s only paranoia if you’re wrong”
“First the temporary workers”, not sure if thats the whole storey, maybe more so in the oil patch, but we have to remember that the economic situation is expanding beyond the patch. Although oil/gas may take the brunt of it, we’ve (tech) started layoffs, the government is hinting at it.
There are many Albertans and people from other provinces that have already lost their jobs and thousands more to come. We almost made Alberta a one trick poney, but there are still other industries and they are feeling it to.
There is little chance in hell that things will start to bounce back in 2009 for Alberta, I would think we will just be hitting bottom by the end of the year
I think we’ve seen the end of this “boom that would never end”, oil won’t see those highs again, at least for many a year if ever. The prices rose on manipulation and speculation not on any fundamentals. That run like the tech bubble etc. is over. People will be fine, they will move to other jobs just like after the last oil boom. It will take a while, but hard workers always seem to land on their feet.
Good comic in the Sun this weekend. Two bumpersticker on a car, one from the last boom asking for another, promising not to waste the money. Another from this boom saying give us just one more and this time we really mean it, we won’t wast the money.
Feel greatful for the last few years of fantastic wages, those days are gone for many people now, I doubt they will return. Remember many people did not even benefit from the boom. So be grateful you were part of the party, because its time to clean up and move on.
All the best.
So what you’re saying is, Obama is a Cylon?
believethetruth your views are nothing if not passionate. I’m not sure the media are trying to propel a negative slant so they can buy our assets on the cheap. However the majority of finance journalists are just journalists and know no more about finance than the taxi driver who chews your ear off about the sky is falling. Someone told me that once it gets into the papers it is already old news. The papers in general will report what happened yesterday or in the case of finacial data (employment figures etc), what happened 6 months ago. If the papers start to talk about things getting rosey and everyone making money again – you will have missed the boat. Make decisions based on your own analysis or someone you really trust and respect. I would suggest that excludes anyone writing for the paper.
Nate,
Ever heard of Houston, it’s another oil town albeit a tad bigger then Edmonton.
http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/10830-Opal-Ridge-Dr_Houston_TX_77095_1105521198
Seriously – how do you all manage to purchase property here? I just moved to Edmonton from Ottawa, and my wife and I are both making good salaries and are having a very difficult time finding a decent sized home in a good neighborhood for our family at an affordable price! I never expected that I would have to lower my expectations for a home so much to afford these prices. Seriously – what is one to do – just keep renting? I’m really astonished at this market.
Checking the MLS, prices in Ottawa are not that much cheaper,
unless you reside on the Quebec side.
Are high real estate prices a good thing for Edmonton’s economy?
If you are selling and downsizing, you would think so. Also, on paper, if you are a home owner, your net worth looks higher and provides more opportunity for leverage (to be used wisely or foolishly).
On the other hand, if you must buy at the higher price, or if you choose to borrow against your home equity line of credit, your now more limited cash flow will impact the economy.
While the financial institutions may be benefitting from the higher mortgage or interest payments, you are left with less disposable income for years and years.
That means fewer renovations, fewer purchases of consumer goods and services, all of which could stimulate the local and global economy.
Obviously, it’s not just higher home prices that are squeezing people’s cash flow. Many have done it to themselves, when they charged purchases on high-interest credit cards and are pretty much maxed out at this point.
Falling prices may not help these people much, while being disastrous for those who bought high and have to resell low.
Did the media contribute significantly to the mess we are collectively in? I would say Yes.
We are continually bombarded with ads for products and services, creating articifial needs and wants.
Reality shows set lifestyle standards few of us can live up to.
Home Improvement shows have made us believe for many years that real estate prices will go up, with quick profits to be made (even with rather amateurish upgrades)
Shows like “Til Debt Do Us Part” and “All Maxed out” now start teaching us the basics that previous generations lived by, before easy credit became available.
But these one-hour shows can’t adequately portray the pain of the lifestyle changes that are required, and the very hard decisions that need to be made to get out of debt.
Achieving a balance between responsible spending, savings/investments, and smart use of credit would get this economy back on track, but I doubt that all of us currently have the skills and tools to get there.
believethetruth: My boss agrees with you. He thinks people should stop being so stubborn and keep spending money. Trouble is, even those that WANT to spend right now can’t because of credit constriction. And those with cash (which is king again – sorry speculators) are in no hurry to part with it and catch any falling knives.
From Ontario: Let me get this straight. People from out of province came here for high-paying tarstruction jobs and between them and speculators the cost of housing (and everything else here for that matter) has been driven through the roof. Now you and your wife come here (for work) and are whining about the high prices? The irony there is just killing me.
But hey don’t worry. When the recession gets into high gear, everyone “from Ontario” will be going back “to Ontario” and housing will be affordable for regular working Albertans again (not just overpaid tarstruction workers).
Ah, I knew there was a silver lining somewhere!
Cheers,
E-town
Hello from Ottawa, welcome. I used to live there, very nice City. I have a very nice house that you may be interested in looking at. It is Sherwood Park. We have it listed on Comfree, but due to bad pricing (and possibly poor marketing. The Comfree model does not work in this environment any more)we have not generated very much interest. The house did not shift it in the fall, so we decided to leave it priced as-is, as we do not need to sell and we have school kids. Our tax assessment last year was 585,000!!! so we listed the price at 509,000 (which was the high end of the Comfree assessment). I will lower the list price soon , realising that the house we are interested in has also reduced their price and the current market conditions. If that does not work I will probably relent and call Sara and Sheldon. I appreciate real estate agents, who “put it all out there” for scrutiny. We would like to move before the summer so that our kids can get adjusted and settled before the start of the school year. Have a look, it is the house with the blue garage door. Sara, Sheldon, sorry for the blatant advertising. Please delete if I have stepped out of line.
That’s a fantastic prediction, E-Town – everyone out here who is from Ontario is going to pack up and flock back to Ontario and get all those wonderful, high-paying jobs there that are going to magically appear.
Jobs like those in the high-paying automotive industry that are going to magically appear when everyone realizes they want to buy GM and Ford crap instead of the high-quality Japanese vehicles that they have been buying over the last 20 years.
Yup. Ontario is going to boom. Ha Ha Ha!!!
GM:
You’re putting words in my mouth. I never said anything about a boom in Ontario. People who face unemployment in this wind-swept tundra known as Alberta might just go home to collect EI in their home province where their family, friends and their local watering hole is situated. They’re not called migrant workers for no reason GM.
Yes, people can cheerlead Alberta’s RELATIVELY low unemployment rate (for a few more months anyhow). So what if we have the best unemployment rate while laying off the LARGEST number of workers anywhere in Canada? Yep, trades will be wandering the streets wondering where their next $2000 mortgage payment is going to come from while the perma-bull spinsters cite low unemployment rates.
Sort of like bragging because your friend is drowning under 10 feet of water while you’re only drowning under 3… brilliant logic there…
From Ottawa:
1) You should have made a projected budget and checked living costs like housing before you came. Our price advantage has been badly eroded in recent years and you could have known this going in.
2) If you didn’t come here to Toil for Oil and make major bucks, you’ve probably also realized what a lot of newcomers have: Not all jobs are worth coming here for even with two incomes.
3) Although it is definitely a contradiction in terms for a province to BEG people to come here in a labor glut and then have citizens bash newcomers, look at it this way: For about 70% percent of “Oilbertans” this boom has done one thing and one thing only – raised their cost of living.
So when you come here and gripe about the prices because we’re no longer the “land of good jobs and cheap housing”, well I guess all I can say is “Join the club man!” And shine up your snowshoes because we’re all going to West Edmonton Mall!! Yaa hoo!
The government will help all of those newly unemployed in Alberta and elsewhere, so do not panic, everyone will be able to make that mortgage payment for a long, long time and it won’t be any panic selling and foreclosures and prices will not go down, so relax.
This is a recession, even a mild depression, but this time lots of help is on the way, unlike in the ’30s.
Sorry Karl:
Governments bail out banks. Not homeowners.
You’re thinking 1930 when you should be thinking 1980…did those people that walked away in 80 get a bailout? I know some of these people – are you old enough to know some of these people?
Here’s a very sobering chart for the “can’t happen again this time, it’s a new world financial order” cheer squad.
http://inflationdata.com/inflation/images/charts/Oil/Inflation_Adj_Oil_Prices_Chart.htm
Sorry, but “prices will not go down” thats just not going to be the case. Less demand, more supply, prices have been going down for months and thats before the majority of the layoffs.
Prices will go down further, people will lose their homes, money will be lost. Unfortunately thats going to be the rule, not the exception.
Take care.
The way the Canadian economy is going, I don’t think anyone in Alberta will leave back to their home provinces, especially Ontario. The only ones leaving will be the temporary foreign and domestic workers.
Jeremy:
So because the economy is bad everywhere else, the people no longer needed for tarstruction jobs are going to stay in a city that no longer has anything to offer them besides boom-town inflated prices and bad weather? Ever hear the term “lesser of two evils”? If I lost my six-figure tarstruction job and had a limited amount of EI to spend each month, I sure as heck would not stick around in E-town and give the entire check to the bank just to keep an overpriced house. I’d move back home where there was no boom to triple the price of everything and have some money left over for beer! It’s not like the “For Hire” signs are for big dollar jobs – the bulls always yip about all the “For Hire” signs in town, but you can’t pay off a 40 year $420K mortgage on a shoebox working at Timmies now can you? Well, you can – if you don’t eat, take the bus and work 80 hours a week. But somehow I don’t see our latest herd of steak-fed tarstruction cowboys making the adjustment to such a third-world lifestyle. These guys have wives that need a $100K SUV just to drop Tyler, Tucker and Tyson off at school!
But you never know. Maybe they really really like it here and will make the necessary sacrifices. Just the other day, a white female under thirty poured me a cup of coffee – I guess anything is possible when you see THAT. When oil-wives have to get jobs again just to keep the house you know the economy is in the drink!
‘ve been reading E-town’s comments and i think he really hate Edmonton and is a prophet of doom!i wonder what does he do for a living aside from bashing Edmonton if you hate Edmonton and have nothing positive to say pack your things and get out of here
Hey Smyth:
Leave? No no no… that’s what oil-toilers do after booms are done. They leave – a big mess behind for the CITIZENS of Alberta to clean up. 70% of Albertans polled admitted that the boom did not benefit them at all – but just caused their living costs to skyrocket. You see, a lot of us (70% I figure) loath these boom bust cycles and the fact our inept government STILL has no clue how to start diversifying the economy of this province. It makes it very hard for working families (who are set on actually LIVING HERE) to PLAN for any kind of future with this kind of instability. And Albertans wonder why people come here for a quick buck and then get the hell out! We’re a one trick oil pony and we’re at the mercy of a volatile energy commodity. Having recent “out of towners” tell me to leave because I don’t like my home town they’ve help to wreck is just laughable. I was born here and will stay here to help clean up the mess long after the migrant “come for a quick buck” workers have gone home.
Fact is, 70% of Albertans didn’t benefit from this boom but they’re likely just afraid to speak up for fear of being ridiculed and called a socialist and told to leave.
Fact is, this city WAS nicer before the housing bubble and this last boom – just ask ANYONE who lived here all their lives like me. Fewer accidents, nicer drivers, fewer drug dealers and liquor stores too. And far fewer murders!
Fact is, we’re not leaving. We’re waiting patiently for folks like YOU to leave Smyth. So we can start the cleanup and move on. And when I mean cleanup I also refer to the toxic waste dump and environmental holocaust formerly known as the Boreal Forest which is just collateral damage on the way to getting rich for big oil and their oil-toiling sheeple. And by cleanup I mean getting our accident rate and highway death toll back down from double the national average. And by cleanup I mean less people who booze and do drugs and more people who know how to shave.
You’re asking 70% of the province to leave Smyth, so little bully oil-toilers can take over the show. Who’s going to pour their coffee at Tim Horton’s? Keep the sewer system running? Civil infrastructure? Government? Law enforcement? Food and entertainment biz? Teach their kids at school? Ah, but oil-toilers don’t think that far ahead. They think that “everyone else” is just a socialist and can just blow away and world can eat oil – that’s how incredibly blinded by big oil some folks are.
Survey says: I’m STAYING! And I’m just getting started. So get a helmet kids.
Cheers,
E-town
so E-town want to keep Edmonton for himself,what a sesdlfish attitude why just help and contribute for the betterment of your beloved Edmonton.encourage more people to live and work here ,theres enough place for anyone who want to make this place their home.We are all immigrant here Ecluding you you!
Smyth. You are correct. Every Albertan is either an immigrant or a Native (or born of one). And yes, when we were struggling to find people in the middle of the labor glut, I myself interviewed people from out of province. And yes, we all encouraged people to come here to help with our labor shortage. And yes, a lot of decent hard working folks have joined our ranks. But that does not mean we have to celebrate the fact that not all people that came here are community minded law-abiding citizens. Am I prejudiced? I hope so. Our entire society is PREJUDICED against drunks, druggies, drug dealers, gangsters, murderers, johns, and hookers. That’s why we have laws especially for these kinds of people – to protect everyone else from their shamelessly SELFISH behavior.
So before you go and start deciding who is SELFISH in this society, I’d suggest you take a closer look around you. Since this boom came, we have more crime, more drinking and driving, more drug use and drug dealers, and more murders. These are the selfish ones, Smyth. And I don’t want the kids I am raising to be anywhere NEAR these types of people and as a parent I reserve that right. When these folks run out of “boom bucks” and can no longer afford their “lifestyles” I’ll be happy to see them go and I know for a fact that I won’t be alone.