Here is our update on the Edmonton real estate market. (Previous week’s numbers are in brackets). For the past 7 days:
New listings: 200 (255, 286, 297)
# Sales: 107 (119, 125, 169)
Ratio: 54% (47%, 44%, 57%)
# Price changes: 159 (234, 297, 347)
# Expired Listings: 258 (191, 503, 139)
# Canceled/withdrawn/terminated listings: 31 (35, 46, 26)
Net loss/gain in listings this week: -196 (-90, -388, -37)
Active listings for single family homes: 2804 (2991, 3200, 3188)
Active listings for condos: 1934 (1975, 1986, 2158)
Many of the people we’ve talked to who were considering buying have decided to wait until the new year. We generally find the market crawls from mid-December to mid-January. This year it seems as if the slow down started about a week early. To be honest I’m a little surprised by the low numbers, since things seem to be rolling along quite nicely at our office.
There have been 461 sales this month, it’s tough to say where we’ll end up but it could be less than 700 sales for the month, which would be the lowest monthly sales in at least 5 years – given the current economic climate that is not a shocker. The overall average residential sale price has fallen to $309k down from $318k at the end of November. Average single family home prices have dropped to $349k from $364 and condos are up from $231k to $237k.
For those of you interested in rental information, I forgot to post the semi-annual rental market report from CMHC that came out last week.
The highlights from the report:
- The apartment vacancy rate across the Edmonton Census Metropolitan Area
(CMA) increased from 1.5 per cent in October 2007 to 2.4 per cent in October
2008. - The average monthly rent for a two-bedroom apartment in new and existing
structures in the Edmonton CMA was $1,034, up $76 from the $958 average
reported in October 2007. - In rental structures common to both surveys, the average rent for a two-bedroom
apartment unit increased by 9.2 per cent year-over-year compared with an 18.8 per
cent increase reported in last year’s fall survey.
Happy Weekend!
It that a Oct, 08 to Nov, 08 SFH drop from $364 to $349? Or Nov 07 to Nov 08??
That is Nov 08 to now…
Unbelievable, from Nov to mid-Dec, $15K, in two weeks… I’m about to jump out the window… OMG
I was hoping to buy this winter/spring. But it’s looking riskier every week. Financial Post had an article calling for a $180k average home price in Edmonton by next October. Extreme, but even half that would cause a real financial hell for anyone buying right now.
(article in the financial post)
……Looking for comments from someone who has lived through 1980s and involoved with oil companies..Will the history repaeat itself???? thanks.(Not looking a reply from realtors as I know they will play the same record…buy buy…)
I hope you were able to cash in during the boom, because things are only going to get worse… MUCH worse.
Once the dismal Christmas-season retail numbers come out sometime in early 2009, there’ll be another wave of economic uncertainty and a plunge in the stock market. And when the Oil price remains low for the next few months you’ll start to see layoffs or wage-cuts in the oilsands, forcing fire sales of properties. When all the money printing in the USA actually hits the system 18 months from now, it’s going to get ugly. The USA is on the verge of a currency collapse and Canada will be affected. Do not believe what the EREB says about home prices… they will continue to plunge for a long while.
Hey Guys,
Glad to hear that things are rolling around nicely at your office. From the looks of things they must hardly be rolling at all at other offices. I definitely think we are in for some extreme price drops over the next year. The glut of condos coming on to the market over the next year is going to drive those prices into the ground. Maybe the government will buy up entire buildings for low income housing. We are definitely going to need more dwellings in that category. As an Edmonton home owner, I am definitely concerned by the trend. At the same time, I was also concerned about the upward trend. Average people were getting priced out of the market. It was getting rediculous. Speculators created a totally false sense of demand and inflation. So I have to say bombs away with those prices. I am losing at least 5K/month, but maybe it will be better for everyone in the long run. Thanks to Sheldon and Sara for keeping this blog going.
I bought in 2002, flipped it and upgraded in 2006. I sold that home last spring and moved to Ontario. I pocketed exactly $270K from that sale. If I were to sell now, I would pocket $70 less – if I could sell at all.
What really comes as no surprise is that it went way up, now she has to come way down.
Those $350K SFH have to come down to $225K.
When they bottom up again by 2012 and that oil is back at $100 a barrel, I will be back.
Enjoy living in Dreamland…
I think it’s essential to look at the economy as a whole, in order to understand what’s going to happen in the real estate market. All these outside factors will heavily influence housing prices.
The US dollar is on the verge of collapsing… Canada will be dragged down for the ride. Oil is taking a beating.
Unfortunately, I can’t see Real Estate in Edmonton picking up anytime soon.
With oil hovering around $35, and some suggest its going lower yet, there will be no oil sands or upgrader expansions, then no new jobs, so no in-migration of new people coming to work and BUY UP that excess inventory that is being dumped by speculators.
Too bad you see it that way.
Here’s from FP:
http://network.nationalpost.com/np/blogs/fpmagazinedaily/archive/2008/12/15/how-low-could-they-go-if-canadian-prices-follow-u-s-trends-certain-cities-will-experience-a-major-slide-in-house-prices.aspx
Essentially what is said for Edmonton is:
Edmonton
Ten years ago (Oct. 1999): $120,027
Peak (March 2008): $343,760
Current (Oct. 2008): $317,744
Predicted (Oct. 2009): $184,602
They use March 2008 as a peak because on average that’s when prices peaked nationally.
But the predicted figure of $184,602 if true – only means one thing: chaos.
If I’m living in dreamland, the folks at FP must live in a dreamland as well because we all know that realtors know it all…
The FP report is just one way of looking at things. Its pretty obvious that things are changing.
Chaos eh? Interesting since your chaos theory is what you’re forecasting please explain to me how you are going to escape this chaos or is Ontario immune to your chaos theory. Btw thanks for pointing out REALTORS don’t know everything. I think that helps clear it all up. Cant wait for your next theory.
Hey Sheldon,
Nice work on the Ontario guy. The future certainly is not any brighter over there. Seriously, why would he even consider coming back to Alberta if prices went down….oh yeah, for a job. Enjoy being mortgage free and job free in Ontario buddy.
Canadian Press Dec. 20 by Garth Turner
“His alarmist book about collapsing housing prices in Canada – “Greater Fool,” which he began writing last December when the sky seemed to be the limit – has turned out scarily bang-on.”
“As well, he expects housing prices will plunge another 30 per cent next year – on top of the 11 per cent drop so far this year.”
Seriously, some so called experts predicted the oil barrel to reach the $200 mark… Easy to make predictions, but in this global economy, it is harder to hit the target.
On a personal basis, I don’t believe the average price of a house will drop that low! Yes it will go down, but never that much amigo, no shit!
I like to look at both sides of the medal and I would not base my opinion solely on a prediction made by the Financial Post.
My beef is to see that bailout for the automobile industry. This is probably the stupidest investment ever for the Canadian government! Why give 4 billions to an industry that is already dead in North America? Asians took the competitive advantage long ago and this would have been the perfect opportunity to invest in new development of technologies. For the workers of that industry, the government could have used part of that 4 billions to relocate the laid off workers in different sectors…
Why GM, Ford and Chrysler… and not the local convenience store? Why GM, Ford and Chrysler… and not the home owners that will go in foreclosure in the next couple of months? Why GM, Ford and Chrysler… and not the low income families? Why GM, Ford and Chrysler… and not the education system? Why GM, Ford and Chrysler… My tax money will be going in the share holders pockets!
The government should do us a favor and use that money in projects where we would have a real competitive advantage and the money would serve canadian interests!
Let me get back to my first thought… Average $184.602 in Edmonton next year? Keep dreaming amigo. To believe this shit, I need some more solid evidence!
Gerald Celente’s predictions for the next few years:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=46MEqEgdLTg
I know these are predictions for the US, but Canada won’t be too much better off.
Don’t get me wrong…
I have nothing against you.
I find the economic transformation of Alberta VERY typical in these times: vulnerable.
One day we built tons of homes. The other day, nobody’s buying.
Who could have predicted this?
Anyhoo… to get back to my dream world, Edmonton prices have fallen HUGE since May 2007.
Now, sales are also down HUGE.
Prices fell 5% this month alone; the biggest drop since November 2007. (http://www.bobtruman.com/Edmonton_SFH_stats/page_1918017.html)
Bob’s site had a typical average SFH at $451K in May 2007. Now it’s at $357K so far for December.
In 19 months, $100K slump.
That’s a $5000+ monthly LOSS.
Chaos eh?
You’ve got the obvious commission-sales driven propaganda going, dude.
Merry xmas and beware of over charging your credit card!
Where’s my propagand dude…Noone and I mean noone spews more propaganda and fear mongering then you. I hope santa brings you a pooper scooper for Christmas but I think you’re probably on the naughty list.
Anyways I’ll do my part to help keep the economy going and I hope that your matress stuffed with cash doesn’t end up in smoke.
How much do you think the media is to blame for the doom and gloom? I don’t even turn the radio or the TV on anymore…it’s so depressing. It makes me want to find a little log cabin and hibernate in the bush somewhere…I’ll cut up my credit card, ditch my SUV and plant a garden and eat venison. Good news doesn’t sell…but the bad news may be our own demise.
Squid and Alberta is done,
Dont try to convince sheldon…I am reading him for the last 1.5 years …he has been saying that there is no bust …it is just a correction..prices have fallen by 80 to 100 k for an average hosue and his tune is still the same…I believe all the people who got lulled by his lullaby and he sold the houses would now be needing diapers.
Thanks, no surprise given the time of year and of course, the overall state of the economy.
I am surprised to see avg residential sale price drop by 7,000. My guess is that this is the result of two things: 1) Price concessions to make the sale and 2) The types of units sold (ie. older units, smaller homes, etc).
It would also be interesting to see what areas of the city are ‘hot’ and ‘cold’ with respect to sales and price thresholds.
What’s up ? I can’t read the comments. Too much negativity or what?
I’m not sure, there seems to be a problem with the comments. I’m working on it.
No surprise here given the time of year and overall economic conditions.
Interesting to find that the average price decreased from $318k to $309k, does this have more to do with the type of product that was selling or simply good deals being brokered?
It would also be interesting to illustrate the specific subareas of the Capital Region that are ‘hot’ and ‘cold’.
a
Test
Next update?
Hi,
Ever since your site update to this new format, I have to refresh my page about a dozen times before I can load your comments, anyone else having this issue? Really bloody annoying.
Yes, you’re not the first person to point this out. I’m looking into it, thanks for your patience.
hi
I cannot read comments but can type. Anyone else experiencing this? I guess fencesiiter doesnt count anymore as I jumped in. I think we got a good eal though my fellow bears may be disappointed.
Shucks I ccannot see my own comments after posting too!
I can’t see the comments.
How come I can’t see the comments???