Here is our update on the Edmonton real estate market. (Previous week’s numbers are in brackets). For the past 7 days:
New listings: 356 (430, 373, 467)
# Sales: 146 (155, 149, 177)
Ratio: 41% (36%, 40%, 38%)
# Price changes: 357 (376, 375, 471)
# Expired Listings: 150 (578, 279, 166)
# Canceled/withdrawn/terminated listings: 47 (47, 33, 47)
Net loss/gain in listings this week: 13 (-350, -88, 77)
Active listings for single family homes: 3236 (3228, 3362, 3436)
Active listings for condos: 2219 (2221, 2285, 2299)
Sheldon wrote up some thoughts on the numbers this week:
Last month I was amazed by the high level of sales of properties in the Edmonton market in comparison to the activity in the stock markets.
This month though the wheels have fallen off the sales wagon much like they did in September 2007. Sales are down largely due to uncertainty in the economy and the markets. Currently sales are trending similar to what I expect for December – there have been 389 sales so far this month, and at that pace we’ll end around 900 which is more typical for December. Its too early to tell but from week to week you can get large variation of activity and its not surprising that things have cooled with all the negative press out there.
Its too early to tell if November will be like September 2007 all over again, and if sales will bounce up in December like they did in October 2007. I do expect sales to perk up a little bit as the stock markets have stabilized in comparison to their radical free fall in early October.
I personally have a lot of buyers I’m working with that are watching from the sidelines to see what’s going on, and many othes are making their decision based on their own motivational factors. However, all except two of my listings have sold this year and I am currently struggling to maintain any inventory to sell. I also see more first time buyers starting to stick their heads into the market, many are now seeing the opportunity cost narrow between paying rent and ownership.
It kind of reminds me of the 90’s out there right now. We’d go through swings of absolute quiet then rushes of pent up demand would spike sales. Staying in tune with what’s going on is definitely a key to success in this market whether buying or selling. In the short term I expect the downward trend on the average price to slow due to lower activity and higher list to sale ratios. The overall average price so far this month is down approximately 1% to $314k, 1% for single family to $358k and 4% for condos to $227k.
Some interesting tidbits out recently:
• Increase of 15,000 full time jobs in Alberta for October putting employment at an all-time high in Alberta
• Decrease of almost 5000 spec homes compared to last year in comparable inventory.
An interesting side bar that I know will get a fair bit of discussion is a recent release from the conference board of Canada that states Alberta’s economy will be affected by what’s happening in the states, but it predicts that Alberta will fare far better then Quebec and Ontario with a growth rate of 1.2% next year.
