Stop the presses!!! The stats we reported the other day are completely different than what has been released by the Realtor’s Association of Edmonton in their monthly release. I’m not sure why, and I’ll try and find out but I thought I’d get the correct info up as quickly as I could.
Saturday September 6 update: I goofed!!! Big time. "BAD" was correct and I reported the total sales the other day, as opposed to the residential sales, which is what I normally report. I am extremely sorry about the confusion – Sheldon and I are trying to tie up all the loose ends before we leave tomorrow for two weeks and in the midst of all the rushing around I made a mistake. Here are the correct charts (which are what I originally posted on Monday):
Again, I do apologize, this was just a mistake, not a conspiracy or anything else. I have gone back and double checked all the numbers for the past couple of years and they are correct.
Inventory dropped again this month – significantly this time – and we’re finally below 10,000 listings for the first time since March.
Looking at this from a supply/demand perspective, you can see inventory has a long way to drop before we are likely to see significant price increases:
One last look at inventory:
I think next month I will save my full analysis until the board releases their monthly stats. The average price matched in both reports but sales and inventory were totally different. Thoughts?
Have prices really stabilized or are our friends at EREB in damage control
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Aren’t we comparing apples to oranges here? The 1713 sales ARE TOTAL sales for August whereas the previously reported (by you) 1541 number is RESIDENTIAL SALES. The EREB always shows both. Judging by the graph the sales here always have been reported as the RESIDENTIAL SALES. In July there were 2037 total sales and the graph is showing something that is close to the 1784 residential sales.
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Prices seem to have taken a bit of a hit (according to the Real Estate board) during August:
Average prices* for all types of homes were down slightly from the previous month. Single family detached homes were off 2.65% to $369,190; the lowest price in 18 months. Condominium prices were down just 1.1% to $251,048 in August after a 3.25% slide in July. Duplex and rowhouse prices were down less than half a percent. Overall, the average residential price (which includes all types of residential property) was $329,207 (off 1.8%: the same as the month previous).
BAd, as per the EREB site: “Residential includes SFD, condos and duplex/row houses”
brocoli your wrong, look here
http://www.ereb.com/MarketActivity/September.html
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alberto broccoli ,
That’s correct and the residential sales are reported by EREB as 1541 for August and 1784 for July. The “Total MLS sales” is reported by EREB as 1713 for August and 2037 for July. The graph definitely does not show 2037 for July so it should show 1541 for August. That’s where the “apples and oranges” came from.
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I like the black magic of inventory drop. It went down triple digits the last day(s) of the month yet sales weren’t in triple digit land. It must be triple digit delistings. Sellers couldn’t get their pie in the sky price so the hec with it.
Amazing that just over a year ago when the inventory first started to spike, so many thought it would get better soon.
Well sorry to say this but a 10-year credit binge is currently unwinding and it won’t be done in 18 months. Canadians are just starting to experience what is to come. Look at the venerable Vancouver market
Banks all over the world are reigning in their credit exposure and that is deflationary; nevermind inflation.
When house prices were skyrocketing, it was due to an exploding supply of credit…now it is in reverse and the average Joe does not understand what that means for asset prices.
Those who do understand the gravity of current financial events will be saving to reduce debt-loads and saving some cash for rainy days or future opportunities.
On the opportunity front, it is wayyyy to early to be snapping up those “bargains”. The price of housing is only starting to correct. But in an environment of wealth destruction, you need some wealth to be destroyed and I would rather not volunteer my down-payment for that purpose.
I will instead watch it grow every month while watching the prices continue to fall which effectively increases my savings.
To think that the tap for 40 year mortgages and 0% down hasn’t even been turned off yet; prices are already cooling. The bathtub is about the get very cold, and many will be reaching for the toaster.
Its a national story now.
http://www.greaterfool.ca/2008/09/03/illiquiditys-a-bitch/#comment-5209
sharon,
Are you kidding me? Having Calgary bubble bloggers posting on another bubble blog makes it a national story!
Following the market for houses, there are a couple of simple things that are important to note.
1. The large pool of brand new spec/investor sfh that had been coming on 100′s a month is empty. Look at Bob Truman’s stats and you’ll find we’re adding about 500-600 fewer new listings a month than last year starting in May/June. That’s not a coincidence as that is 12-13 months (length of time to build a new house) from the last of the spec rush of early 2007. Inventory has peaked at it’s highest point (and it’s not all a plot by those evil realtors).
2. I see a lot of posters who migrate over here when things get slow on the bubble blog, to trumpet rapidly falling prices, and fail to connect the dots. Does anyone think that the fact sales have stayed higher longer this year isn’t due to people being pushed off the fence after the announcement of the coming suspension of 0 down. Where do you think they’re coming in….at the high end of the market, or at the low end? I don’t think it’s a cooincidence that after that announcement, a sfh market that had been trading between 390,000 and 400,000 since Nov/07 suddenly drops 17,000 dollars in July/August. In Calgary The drop over the exact same time frame was 33,000 after having been up every month since Dec/07. By the way the announcement was made July 9th.
We are over the hump as far as inventory goes and now it’s a slow ride down to more manageable levels. If I’m right about the surge of low end buyers connected to the suspension of 0 down, then we should see a rise in prices back to the 390,000-400,000 range as that crowd gets thinned out over the next 2 months. How’s that for sticking your neck out?
3. With an average 850 or so sfh sales a month since Jan/08 and new builds of maybe 250 a month…..inventory simply has to go down.
4. Has anyone been following comfree listings. I find it interesting their inventory has fallen 25% in the last 4 or 5 months. Maybe people realize that houses aren’t selling themselves anymore and that’s keeping the mls inventory from falling even faster.
It’s too bad there are no stats on recreational properties. Flipping through the Comfree magazine’s recreation section and the MLS recreation section makes me giggle at how many specu-vestors have $700k+ cottages out at Pigeon Lake. The $2,800,000 listing takes the cake. I can’t imagine spending 400k+ for a rec property for use a few weekends a year, but I’m just a poor working stiff.
The Oilers only have so many players and Eskimos don’t make that much, we don’t have many tv/movie stars here so the market is rather thin.
Too bad there are no pictures for E3159865.
Another interesting item to note. The August employment numbers were released today, and if I read it right, most of the new jobs were created in the East, not in Alberta (even though our unemployment is very low, few if any new jobs created).
http://ca.news.finance.yahoo.com/s/05092008/2/biz-finance-employment-rebounds-15-200-new-workers-jobless-rate.html
the stats above are wrong. your sales numbers are wrong. you have taken july SFH then august total sales.
the stats and graphs are therefore useless.
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Actually, up to and including July the graph shows RESIDENTIAL SALES (SFD, condos and duplex/row houses), but the August figure of 1713 is the TOTAL MLS SALES which includes land and commercial sales. That’s where the mistake is. The RESIDENTIAL SALES number for August is 1541 as Sarah did report correctly in the first place (now removed).
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****Hi BAD. Thanks for pointing this out. I have double checked the numbers and you are correct. I have (as you can see) re-posted the correct chart with an explanation. Thanks for your patience. Sara.***
I can see how that graph for listings will continue to go down. Two houses I had my eye on recently had price reductions and then disappeared from MLS shortly after. I drove by both of them yesterday and again today, and they still have realtor signs on their lawns. They disappeared from MLS over a week ago. I can understand why so many people do not trust this industry.
atskid,
just wait a few days, and you’ll see those two houses reappear, with new MLS numbers.
They probably simply expired at 60, 90 or 180 days and might relist with the same realtors…. that’s why the signs are still on the lawn.
I witnessed the same thing with one house 5 TIMES ! over the last year and a half.
I will never be able to trust this website again, why did they change the sales information, are they trying to trick us? like,why would people want to do that?
****Tony, relax. I made a mistake, I’m sorry. Thanks, Sara.