Here is our update on the Edmonton real estate market. (Previous week’s numbers are in brackets). For the past 7 days:
New listings: 516 (523, 538, 528)
# Sales: 276 (310, 262, 296)
Ratio: 53% (59%, 49%, 56%)
# Price changes: 469 (519, 448, 466)
# Expired Listings: 269 (219, 552, 608)
# Canceled/withdrawn/terminated listings: 54 (77, 33, 47)
Net loss/gain in listings this week: -83 (-83, -309, -418)
Active listings for single family homes: 3986 (4003, 3999, 4007)
Active listings for condos: 2643 (2671, 2705, 2708)
The slow decrease in inventory continues…could sales be any steadier?
The other stats…so far 1162 sales this month – still should put us around 1700 sales by the end of the month which will put us well ahead of last year but about average for recent years. The average sale price is $327,886 which is down a bit further from last week ($335 end of July, $329 last week) while price per square foot is basically unchanged.
This week I also had a look at the different areas of the city and how quickly things are selling. If you remember from last month, I did an "absorption rate" study for different areas and different types of listings. The absorption rate is the number of listings currently on the market, divided by the number of sales in the pat 30 days, and it tells you how many months it will take to sell the current inventory if the rate of sales stays the same.
So, Sherwood Park still has the quickest absorption rate, in fact, it’s even gotten quicker than last month and Stony Plain is the slowest, but the pace has picked up, and it’s picked up more than any other area. The $700,000+ market has slowed down more than any other category, and takes the cake with 20 months worth of supply.
Based on the absorbtion rates, everything above 400K seems to take longer to sell than last month.
That makes me wonder whether the steady sales are in part still coming from first-time buyers with 0%down and 40 years amortization.
It will be interesting to watch the absorbtion after October 15.
As sad as it is, I’m sure a lot of people are taking advantage of the less than 5% downpayment option.
Come October, the game changes quite a bit. Not a lot of first time buyers have the $20,000 cash to buy their first home in this city.
The info and comments on this blog are great! Does anyone know of a similar blog focusing on the Toronto market? Thx.
Johnny,
Links from the side bar-
http://andrewlafleur.com/
http://toreal.blogs.com/toronto/
and of course, for the Toronto bear perspective,
http://www.greaterfool.ca
EREB came out with a report reassuring us that we are not in a severe downturn. I dont know about you but that scares me because there in damage control.
I remeber the 80ès when I seen a sign that said PLEASE LORD GIVE US ANOTHER BOOM AND IPROMISE NOT TO PISS IT AWAY THIS TIME… WELL I DONT THINK WE LISTENED.
thats a pretty ominous warning issued by ereb, why would they do that?, i bought a house last year and now they are warning people that prices wont plummet, i dont get it, and it has scared me and my wife
CMHC forecasting near worthless.
http://albertarealestatewatch.blogspot.com/
John,
I just read the report and yes, it sounds like someone is in denial. I’m getting really sick of their cheerleading. We’re in a bear market and nobody will admit it. Everyone is mad because they can’t sell their property for peak prices – must be the same people still holding Nortel stock hoping it goes back to $100!
I am just wondering why you negative forcasters always have soooo much time to preach your poison? This is the 80′s, the sky is falling, blah, blah, blah.
You people wouldn’t buy under any circumstances so what is the intent of your opinion? No body including you can be sure what is going to happen to short term RE prices. Long term ownership is always in the purchasers best interest. If you don’t understand then just zip it until you do. Read both sides of an argument not just the one that suites you.
I’m looking to buy Car27. But I don’t feel like losing equity on bad timing. Still feels like buying a stock on the way down.
Car 27,
Actually Im not a bubble blogger I own 2 properties I bought my first early 2006 and my second Jan 2008, I wish I would have held out for the second one. Look I dont want this to happen to Alberta I really dont, but the writing is on the wall. Cmon can we really stay 50% higher in value then States, yeah yeah your going to say they had bad lending practices, but how about us with 40 yr mortgages and 0 down, talk about subprime. Im not saying we are going to crash but we are going to be in a bit of trouble. Speculation is the worst thing that can happen to an economy
Car27:
“Read both sides of an argument not just the one that suites you.”
That’s (ironically) what sane people said to the price-run up cheerleading bulls during the peak. Some people actually listened to these bulls yip about a $750K bungalow and $200 barrel of oil and bought in at the peak with a 0/40 because the “sky was falling” for them too… “locked out forever” I think they said.
So, no Car27. You can’t silence the bears in the deflation period any more than you could silence the bulls during their drunken price run party. Greed time over. Fear time.
The “long term means housing prices don’t matter” cheerleaders should be reassuring the people they talked into buying in the peak with a 0/40 and facing negative equity and the possibility of an interest rate hike (read:lose everything) that they made the right decision.
The bears? Don’t worry about them – it’s just “their turn” for a while now. They won’t win or lose, because you’re right – they’re not buying. You have to buy in to win OR lose!
Cheers,
E-town
Car27:
P.S. – why be a bearish cheerleader at all when the banks are writing it up better than anyone could?
http://www.td.com/economics/special/pg0608_housing.pdf
Hype spreads. Whether its greed in a price run or fear in a correction, hype spreads, and it really does affect the market, just like Sara said in her You Tube report on how media affects the housing market.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OL6OYzfQgPY
Of course, since selling homes is her game, we never heard these complaints about the media during the run-up – only now in the correction.
So we have bear cheerleaders and bull cheerleaders. Neither one will see “both sides of the argument” Car27 – each one IS A SIDE of the argument, and they often are that way directly because of their personal agendas.
Nobody is bleeding for those who have empty homes that can’t sell, yet decent homes at decent prices with people in them are selling all the time.
Are Edmontonian buyers being vindictive? Maybe! Perhaps specuvestors with empty properties that keep expiring should hire actors to portray a working class family to stage the house so it looks lived in!
Cheers,
E-town
Ah yes, I long for the good old days where builders were honest and would build a decent house for you at a decent price. A house where you paid good money and got a good house, not a shoddy house.
During the peak, I had to stifle my laughter when looking at a *** show home in ***. They wanted $565,000 for an 1800 sqft bungalow but they said that they don’t take on any new clients who did not take at least $250,000 in upgrades. Their “average” client took $350k in upgrades. So, $915k for an 1800 sqft bungalow. I guess there is one born every minute. Looking at their price sheet, they charged $3600 for an 8′x10′ deck (raw materials cost = $300), $76,000 just to build a home theater room, etc, etc. The house came with cheapo hardwood, but any upgrades were at full price. That’s right, no credit for builder-spec hardwood.
I look forward to the foreclosure auction of $915k bungalows in Magrath and to the liquidation of ***. You can only screw people for so long before they won’t take it. So, yes, Edmontonians ARE vindictive.
***Comment edited…direct attack***
Ray, I think were on the same page as far as builders go. We were caught up in the panic back in 2006 – 2007 like many people (move up home), “its now or never, buy now or you’ll be priced out”. Thankfully we went on vacation, gave it some thought and decided this could not last, so we did not purchase. But most if not all our dealings with builders were negative to say the least. I will smile brightly the day I hear a couple in particular our out of business. Pompus and ignorant and if not down right liars is/was I think an accurate description.
Mind you the contractors I’ve hired in the last year or two to do some upgrades on my existing home have left a lot to be desired (does anyone know how to level or make a straight line?).
Oh for the good old days
Have a great week.
Yea the build quality in the mid west of Canada in general is laughable at best.
Not to mention Alberta’s building code is about 30 years behind the times.