So the Realtor’s Association of Edmonton released their monthly report yesterday emphasizing the strong sales in July (just like we did on Friday!). The official release always fills in a few missing pieces of the puzzle and although it took me a bit longer than usual (we were working until 1am last night) I’ve got it together now.
So, looks like inventory is on a downward trend, lets hope it continues that way:
The price drop in July was felt in the condos more than in single family homes. Condo prices were down 3.5% from June with slower than normal sales, and homes were down .5% with stronger than normal sales.
As you can see, demand has been quite steady since April, and don’t expect this to change until September, when sales tend to drop:
I posted this chart on Friday, but the inventory was adjusted so I thought I’d post it again with the final numbers.
All in all it’s been very busy for the past week and a half. Perhaps the buyers are coming back from sitting on the side lines? Maybe it’s just a fluke but a number of Realtors I’ve talked to have noticed an uptick.
HERE COMES ANOTHER BOOM!!….Just Kidding, but these stats bode well for SFH, condos not so much, there is just too much inventory everywhereI look there are unfinished condos, wait till they actually come on the market, who are they going to sell these to, unless investors re enter the market but some are still trying to get rid of what they have right now. Im an investor my self who had a choice to buy a condo or a house for an investment a few years ago, I think I made a good choice with the SFH even though they wont do great but not as bad as what is going to happen to the condo market…listen Im not a bubble blogger but I cant see a good outcome for the condo market. If anyone disagrees let me know but the writings on the wall we can choose to ignore it but its still there.
These is a great showing of exactly what the local market is doing, I think the trends of suppy vs demand will obviously have a direct inpact of pricing power for sellers. Here in Tucson Arizona (just an hour south of Phoenix) we have a very serious imbalence of supply and demand which has lead to a price drop of roughly 30% over the past 2 years.
Sorry if this is a dumb question, but how does EREB tally up their grand monthly total of SFD sold? Their official figure of 1176 from here http://www.ereb.com/pdf/MonthlyStats.pdf is not the same as the total you get from page 5 of the same document which is 939.
(The latter figure is closer to the one on Bob Truman’s website, which is why I did the calculation.)
John, I totally agree. I remember the lineups for Century Park phase 1 were stupid. The first phase was sold to tradesmen (40%) and the balance sold out in 4 hours. Phase 2 was took 5 days to sell out. Then, Icon A sold out in a week and Icon B sold out in about the same amount of time.
Edmonton doesn’t have a huge market for high-end anything. The $1.2MM penthouse at Icon A will be a doozie to unload. So will the penthouse at Icon B… assuming a 5k premium, that penthouse probably sold for at least $1.3MM.
If Jayman is having problems getting rid of 650 sqft condos for $200k, I can’t imagine how long it’ll take to sell a $500k 650 sqft condo at Icon A or B, even if it is on top of the new Urban Sobey’s…
It would be nice to have to quarterly high-end stats. Say, 750k-1000k, 1000k-1250k,1250k+ or something like that.
Some condos in the south end are priced very very well and even then they are not moving all that fast.
Those people who picked up an 850sqft 2bed 2 bath for under 200k back in 06 are now selling for like 215k-230k. I guess they figure its a good time to get out. Peak, those places where selling for 260k-290k.
I wonder what affect these new builds will have on the prices?
Condos, I hate to say the following because I can’t find the article that had the information…
But I read an article recently that said there was a “fear” that many people will find that the condo they bought (being built) is worth less then the mortgage once the condo is finished. And if that happens they will not be able to get financing and you will find many people walking away, which would/could have a huge price impact.
The condo fees will be shooting up in these empty complexes as well for the few that are in them.
Anybody see the Calgary daily stats for SFH’s and condo’s going into August, it’s ugly man!
I posted it today but on August 1st topic. So here it is again
I don’t know of a real estate agent that offers these daily stats for Edmonton but if Calgary is tanking you can bet Edmonton is too.
http://www.findcalgary.ca/index.jsp
I’m sure prices are going to drop Brent, but since when do 5 days of sales, ESPECIALLY OVER A LONG WEEKEND, carry much weight?
I guess time will tell, but the prices are still the prices!
-
In the U.K.
“It seems that much of the nation is finally coming to its senses. Proof? A press release from Metlife saying that there has been a huge reduction in the number of people idiot enough to think that their homes are their pensions.
It was always mildly nonsensical to think that you might use your home to support you in your old age. (Where do you live if you are renting out your house to provide an income? And why would you want to downsize to “release equity” just as you hit retirement and have to spend your whole time at home?) But now that prices are falling at speed and – on HSBC numbers – one in ten households is either in or near to negative equity, it seems even more ridiculous than ever.”
http://www.moneyweek.com/file/51743/your-house-isnt-your-pension.html
Are we coming to our senses?
-
“if Calgary is tanking you can bet Edmonton is too.”
Not exactly Brent. According to Bob Truman’s website, for SFD’s, Calgary RE is down 4.8% the last 2 months and Edmonton RE is only down 1.0%.
Give it time
We were lucky to buy last month and to sell shortly after listing. Now we don’t care if values go down 10%, as our old house would have depreciated as well.
The bottom is going lower.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20080808.wrealestate08/BNStory/National/home
http://www.reportonbusiness.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20080808.wjobs0808/BNStory/Business/home
I am bit confused by the numbers EREB.com is expressing. EREB.com as per July stats says “the unusually high inventory level dropped to 10,501 properties as of July 31, 2008″
But when I review the PDF for july 08 in more detail for total listing VS total sales on bottom of page 2 what I see is
total no of properties listed to date is 26508 less
the total no of properties sold to 11071
which brings the differnce to 15437 which should be current inventory for 2008.
What I am trying to understand is have 5000 mls listings been withdrawn or just expired and fell off the mls system ?? Anybody have a clarification for me??
I see
I think when it comes to condos, you have to look at the big picture. When we bought in the Oliver section a few years ago for our son and school, our thoughts were ‘keep it for 5 years’. I still think condos are a sure thing, there will always be students, young couples, and retirees looking for the simple place to live with no yard work and maintenance. So, if your willing to hold a condo 5-10 years , the market will undoubtly be back up , even a small amount.
Boog,
I couldn’t agree more – I have a 18+ condo behind Oliver Square that I expect to start renting out in 2-3 years…
To add to your thoughts – I am waiting for the downtown arena/entertainment centre, along with higher energy prices – at that point I believe that I will be able to command a rental price close to my $2100/mo. “all in” nut….