Last week we discussed a press release from the Canadian real estate association that talked about real estate market trends in Canada. One of the things the press release mentioned was:
"New listings reached record or near-record levels in Toronto, Vancouver, Ottawa, Regina, and Saskatoon. This more than offset a decline in new listings in Edmonton and Calgary, which continue retreating from peaks in March."
So I was curious to see just what the trend for new listings has looked like in Edmonton over the past few years. I got out my trusty Excel spreadsheet and ran the numbers:
It does appear as though the number of new listings is following the normal trend this year, just about 1500 listings higher than where the trend line usually sits. As for last year though, I knew we had a spike in June, but I didn’t realize just how out of whack things really were until I saw it on this chart. If you want to see the affect on inventory, check this out:
Thank you for all your work and information.
I find the item about the “decline in listings in Edmonton and Calgary interesting”. I follow your postings and from the Friday stats it would appear that the only reason there is a dip in listings is because we’ve had a large number of expirations over the last couple weeks, not due to anything other then that (many will probably re-appear). Would that not be the case? I get the impression that this is being thought of as a turn of tides or such?
Thank you again.
Is there any data collected/available on WHY people are listing their homes? Just curious what caused the spike, and what is in a way, sustaining the spike. I know when I was selling my house, my realtor asked for my reason, to share with potential buyers, but this was an optional piece of information (and depending on what you say, leaves room for different interpretation).
Not having any hard data, would you attribute the rise in listings to baby boomers selling out for their retirement? People wanting to capture the equity rise? Non-permanent residents wanting to go home to their home provinces? This spike in listings is something happening nationally, no?
***There is no specific data, but the main reason the listings spiked is because a lot of people bought second homes when the market was hot, intending to flip them, and when the market started to turn everyone tried to dump their properties. Another reason is net migration – during 2006 and 2007 the migration into the province was very high, and for the past few quarters we’ve been losing population (a lot of people made a lot of money in real estate and realized they could move back where they came from and have little or no mortgage there for a similar home). The other main reason is new home construction – the builders simply went over board and built more properties than the market needed. Demand is pretty normal for our market right now, but supply is much higher than normal. Sara.***
Karin, good thinking good questions. I want to add some more thoughts:
Why or who were buying in 2005, 2006 and 2007 that brought the pricing more that 70%.
Were There investors in the market ? or were people buying for investing ? do they want to offload their investment properties now ?
Anybody has answer ?
Nabil,
I was among the people who unfortunately drove prices up. In 2005, I purchased several rental properties (single-family detached homes). I have no intention of selling them in the next 10 years, unless I decide to move out of the province, myself.
In my opinion answer to all your question is the speculation and havoc created by a team of Realtors, mortgage specialist, builder, investors and, of course, all those novice investor or flipper whatever you call.
Realtors: told to their client market is going up, which creates uncertainty in buyers mind. You will loose property if you do not bid more……………..
Mortgage Specialist: Approved all clients mortgage regardless of weather they are actually qualified…………
Builder: speculate the prices to increase every week price tag on spec homes (remember y2006 and early 2007) to push the market higher (unreachable to masses)
Investors: did the right thing at right time. They purchased the property at low price and cash their investment and moved to Saskatchewan and now to Manitoba. presently, it seems to me that they are speculating the crude gas prices.
Novice Investors: They followed the trend on week foot (steps!)at muddy road and now they are scared of rain and hails. They are spoiling the market presently. They should know the real estate investments are long term investment and not short term. Only riches have the privilege to invest in real estate to grow their money on long run (since they have surplus of money).
Conclusion: we ‘ll see more prices to go down which is good for new home buyers.
Good Luck anyway
You’re right tery. Alberta experienced their boom earlier than Saskatchewan who experienced their boom before Manitoba experienced their “boom”. Inventory is following the same trend so it’s safe to assume that the prices will soften in the same order.
Alberta has seen their prices decline 5-10%, Saskatchewan is in the beginning stages of it and Manitoba won’t be much farther behind.
Just my opinion.
To the buyers out there whom are just waiting for an indication of the right time to buy a new condo….this is it!
We are in the doldrums of summer…I haven’t seen a soul in my showsuite lately and other salespeople are in similar situations.
We will do almost anything right now to get a sale: change possession dates, throw in extras, makes changes to layout and increase selections…
So:
- do your homework at http://www.intheknowcondo.com
- get pre-approved
Then go buy your new home.
\tery…,
You are right,i will wait for more correction in house prices, good points..
Terry,
You hit the nail on the head. During the speculative run, once one house in a neighborhood sold for more than the previous, this rose the bar for the whole neighborhood. Now the opposite is true. As homes keep selling for less and less they drive down prices for all in that area. If we keep adding to inventory like the graphs above show (close to a record # of new listings every month) I wouldn’t at all be suprised if we fall just as fast as we rose.
Love, I agree that you should wait. The trend is your friend, don’t forget that.
I wish these stats included private sale listings. I have been an avid follower of this site for a while and always enjoy the insight. Unlike most members I am an avid believer in private sale. I listed two of my rental units with PropertyGuys.com and from what I can see they are very busy. I have only used Comfree once and was not impressed. My family lives on the East Coast and Property Guys is growing fast. Comfree doesn’t have a chance against these guys. I wish we could compare their stats nationally as well.
Ryan,
Just out of curiousity, what do you find to be the significant differences between Comfree and Propertyguys?
Unlimited photos, better photos, better service, national exposure and PropertyGuys.com gave me a password to access my listing. I have been able to change the photos, price, writeup etc. Comfree nickel and dimed me every time I wanted to change something!
Sorry I forgot to mention they are less expensive and in some areas free.
We just bought in a SW area. Listing price $539, sold for $517. City apprasial $555, so how do you think we did?
We are mover upers so it’s a 10+ year investment.