Here is our update on the Edmonton real estate market. (Previous week’s numbers are in brackets). For the past 7 days:
New listings: 627 (757, 660, 608)
# Sales: 257 (280, 287, 245)
Ratio: 41% (37%, 43%, 40%)
# Price changes: 628 (617, 671, 572)
# Expired Listings: 202 (625, 103, 205)
# Canceled/withdrawn/terminated listings: 62 (62, 73, 57, 55)
Net loss/gain in listings this week: 106 (-210, 197, 101)
Active listings for single family homes: 4382 (4287, 4371, 4303)
Active listings for condos: 3105 (3061, 3233, 3210)
If the pattern holds up that we’ve seen over the past few months, we should see even fewer new listings next week and sales somewhere between 250-280. We may be nearing the peak of inventory. The new listings to sales ratio for the month so far is 42%, just like the past few months.
The average residential selling price so far for June is $343,547 (up from $340,499 in May), and the price per square foot is also up from last month (keeping in mind of course that there is less data to work with so early in the month and these stats do not necessarily indicate a trend).
Happy Weekend!
Attention! The bottom bubble has burst!
Ok… just had to get that in. seriously though, I am seeing that things are picking up and invetory appears to be dropping off. At least that is what I am noticing.
I was wondering about this price per square foot. How is the square footage arrived at. Say if a 1300 sq ft bungalow with a 1000 sq ft basement developed would that count at a 2300 sq ft dwelling for the purposes of this graph. I guess what I am asking is how is the square footage calulated when coming up with this statistic. By the way I read your blog every week and I find it very informative. Keep up the good work
***Only the area of the home that is above ground level is included in the square footage. So in your example the bungalow would count as 1300 square feet. Thanks for reading!
I’m a Toronto real estate agent but I like to keep myself informed about all the major areas in our country. Weekly stats like yours are very helpful. I guess, I just wanted to say thanks.
it’s really good to hear that our inventory is probly at its peak. I just cant wait to get rid of my new duplex. It sucks me up.
Investor Guy, are you looking just at condos for signs of dropping inventory?
For single detached homes, we hit a new record today, with an inventory of 4073 (Edmonton only), which is 10.2% above the highest volume in 2007, at 3696.
Granted, the volume is not climbing steeply, but it only drops off periodically, as listings expire, and then comes right back.
I would guess that there is a lot of latent inventory out there, where sellers tested the market, didn’t like what they saw, and decided to wait before relisting.
I just had to throw some sarcasm in the other way. There seems to those who always see the bubble bursting on us investors. I know the inventory is still high, but I am seeing signs that this inventory is peaking and will actually begin to drop off and I think we could see the inventory cut by 50% in the next few months.
Thank you for the weekly stats.
Inventory peaking? Edmonton is still getting over twice the number of listings as sales each and every single week, including this past week. Even if it did peak, its still record inventory, and thats just MLS listings not including Comfree, propertyguys.com, private listings etc..
A very good article today on yahoo finance about Canadian housing, they mention Edmonton/Calgary see below (link and part referencing Edmonton). Happy fathers day.
http://ca.pfinance.yahoo.com/ca_finance_general/727/the-new-way-to-make-money-in-real-estate/
A recent housing affordability report from Royal Bank proclaimed “easy money no more,” and warned that prices in both Calgary and Edmonton have “soared well above their fundamentals to unsustainable levels.”
From that RBC Fred’s post is referencing.
No U.S. style correction
Canada’s housing market is on much firmer footing than the U.S. market. Although the arrival of slipping house prices in markets like Calgary and Edmonton are raising concern that Canada might be headed for a U.S-style correction, the recent softening in house prices is part of a natural end-of-cycle slowdown that is expected to take hold through 2008. Several factors support our view that Canada’s market is simmering down but still in healthy shape, including
Canada’s more conservative lending practices, healthy household finances, tight labour markets and a manageable inventory situation.
http://www.rbc.com/economics/market/pdf/citytrend.pdf
I just visited Edmonton after being gone for a year after moving to Kelowna. I want to give my view as a very well versed outsider now. I was AMAZED with the amount of infrastructure going in.
-New downtown towers; a lot of new concrete
-The Anthony Henday
-The interchange at 23rd Avenue going in
-The LRT and development near Heritage
-New development near Fox drive
-Whitemud expansion
-Tonnes of roads getting twinned or new lanes
-At least 5 new Save on Foods and small plazas like that
-Business park expansions especially on 50th Street
The infrastructure yells out “Edmonton is an extremely vibrant and healthy city”.
However, the amount of spec homes, new sub divisions and apartment buildings was shocking. I know the city very well and was stunned at the new sub divisions. No wonder there’s so many on the market. Those just have to find a home and now Edmonton is getting the infrastructure to house thos people, it just may take a few years and lower prices will see that this downward trend will correct itself. A city with a bubble about to burst doesn’t boast this kind of shocking development in infrastructure. So much change in a year. Lets just say that all the development took me by surprise that I may be looking to move back to Edmonton from Kelowna in a few years.
To the nay sayers: pull your heads out of the sand and look at all the change; it’s easy to become jaded when you live in a place and see the change on an ongoing basis and not note it.
Both Edmonton and Calgary have reached records for listings… People are selling to go back home with equity. Saskatoon has now reached a comparable level of high (peak) prices and climbing listings whereas Regina is showing signs that they will peak too within 6 months (going on trends seen for Saskatoon last year).
Now the only city left for appreciation seems to be Winnipeg.
Last month, 67% of sold listings sold at or over asking price!! Also, the sales to listings ratio is at over 80% for the past year and the YOY appreciation is at 15% and climbing. Reportedly, many Alberta folks are moving there now. Maybe it will be soon when the Saskatoon specs move there too?
Winnipeg seems to be where Edmonton was in the summer/fall of 2006.
Any info if investors/speculators are now buying into the Winnipeg market?
***Knockin down the house…I took your comment down on the other thread. You don’t need to post the same stuff on 2 different articles. This thread relates more to your post so I left it up. FYI for what its worth. I’m seeing the reverse in terms of migration. My guess is net migration is stable to positive. However, I wouldn’t dare to assume based on my activity which is about 50/50 that it mirrors the actual migration.
Sheldon
I was going to buy into Winnipeg – but it’s a rip off to what you can get in many US destinations right now.
I was certain Winnipeg was going to be the next, but I think it’s going to get ripped off as usual due to juicy US prospects. It will attract entry level buyers that are unable to participate down south which leaves out some of the crazy prospectors.
Saskatchewan dodged the bullett and climbed crazily before the collapse down south. Otherwise you can be assured that some would have chosen a nice house in a place like Palm Springs, for example.
For $100,000 I can buy a 3 bedroom/2 bathroom house in the suburbs of Phoenix.
Babyboomers are going to start attending to their retirement homes and this is perfectly timed – most don’t aspire to retire in Winnipeg, Manitoba.
I’m just saying a certain piece of the puzzle will be missing in Winnipeg: major prospecting as the US steals the lime light.