The Realtors Association of Edmonton has decided to publish stats daily!!! That means I can get our updates online much faster than in months past and will be able to add new info to our weekly stats. I have some concern that the numbers I post today won’t match their monthly numbers that should come out in a couple of days but we’ll have to wait and see.
The numbers show a very resilient market when you consider the inventory continues to rise and prices are holding steady. The overall average is up about 1% over last month:
The real (and continuing) story is inventory. It continues to rise. This is normal for this time of year, but the level of inventory is almost at a new record (I expect we’ll reach this record next month). This means lots of competition for sellers, and lots to choose from for buyers:
New listings don’t seem that high, but sales are pretty flat leading to higher inventory:
Perhaps 2008 is the year of the buyer!
Last but not least, you can see even though we’ve had minor ups and downs in recent months, the average price overall has pretty much flattened out when you compare the annual average:
That’s it for today, we’ll add some more thoughts through the week, especially once the news release comes out from the board.
I have no education in business whatsoever, but even I know, why this is.
It is, because here, in Edmonton we can pay two, three or even more mortgages, in the same time but still won’t sell for any less.
How about this for an explanation?
good for you karl.. this is why my banks shares will do well.
Where’s that RE crash that everybody’s talking about?
5 months of stable sales…
I doubt that those bubble folks will be happy now…
Speculators who got caught owning the house have large carrying costs. Realtors are making a worse living due to low sales.
When will the speculators budge?
I won’t be buying till owning a three bedroom detached house (that requires no repair) has the same servicing costs as renting my 1000sq ft high end condo – after taking into account taxes and lost investment income.
This will likely happen when affordability hits 33% in Edm
To the moon!
You guys are right. Clearly, we’re only going up from here. Time to sell my stocks and buy my own 500k piece of paradise.
Vern and Nate:
You guys have been posting the same sarcastic comments for a while. You bring no evidence to support your rants. Obviously, you make no sense at all.
House said…”
Where’s that RE crash that everybody’s talking about?
5 months of stable sales…”
I guess if you ignore that YOY sales are down ~30% … ignore the fact that March sales appear to be lower then 2007 .. 2006 .. 2005 .. 2004 and are about the same as 2003… Ya they are stable.
Well I guess if you compare monthly sales to only the previous month they are somewhat stable… but that is not a “good thing”.
Stat I would like to see tracked is the price per square foot. With price holding steady it tells me people are getting bigger homes for their money.
Cheers
Price per square foot went up to 287 from 280 last month according to Bob’s site. – http://www.bobtruman.com/Edmonton_SFH_stats/page_1918017.html
Median prices had a significant drop in Calgary. But in Edmonton the average and the median maintained/grew a small amount.
The inventory is a 700lbs gorilla in the room though. Only the cream of the crop is selling right now, so how long will the other investors sit on the sidelines before lowering their prices?
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Here’s the RE situation in Calgary:
“Total MLS listings inventory at the end of March was 12,597, a whopping 167 per cent increase from 4,723 registered in March 2007. The month-end inventory for single-family homes in Calgary metro was 5,957, up 155 per cent from a year ago, while for condos it was up a staggering 283 per cent from a year ago to 2,781 listings from 726.
(…)
According to data released Tuesday by the real estate board, the average sale price of a single-family home in Calgary metro last month was $474,513, down 1.13 per cent from the $479,914 in March 2007. The median price also declined in a year-over-year comparison by 1.64 per cent from $427,000 to $420,000. Sales plunged by 37.6 per cent compared with a year ago — 1,418 in March and 2,272 in March 2007.
In the condominium market, the average price in March for Calgary metro was $312,620, up 0.1 per cent from $312,280 in March 2007. The median price increased by 1.03 per cent in the past year from $290,000 to $293,000. But sales, like in the single-family market, dropped by 44.9 per cent in the past year from 1,026 in March 2007 to 565 last month.”
http://www.canada.com/calgaryherald/news/calgarybusiness/story.html?id=c2fa15ea-05be-4994-a238-973860b23e35
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I just wanted to express my thoughts on our frustrations with our real estate experience so far. We have no idea, at almost 60 days on the market, why we have not had any offers.
****This is not the place to get your frustrations out. Discuss this with your agent. It has nothing to do with us, this blog, or this blog post***
sherwood park:
My neighour sold his house yesterday.
He originally listed with comfree at $485K last fall.
He then got a realtor and listed at $469K and did nothing. Last month, he changed realtor. this guy told him to rip his lino floor and replace with hardwood, paint his walls to trendy colour, have a glass pantry door, upgrade his deck and replace his counters with granite.
he sold yesterday for $425K.
We all knew all along that his house was not worth the original $485K
All depends what you do… Some people really think that they can flip their sty for big $. Not.
According to Bob Truman’s site, SFH has an average price of $397,484 (a 4.2% decline from March 2007) and a medium price of $374,500 (also a 4.2% decline from March 2007).
I don’t see anything resilient about a 4.2% drop in price.
The condo average price went up 6.6%. Those priced out of the SFH market had to enter the more over-priced condo market.
Sherwood Park, there is only one explanation: you priced it too high.
Believe or not, as of right now, there are houses got multiple offers and sold in 3 days.
Bunny – An 8 year old 1600 sq foot house in S.P for under 400K is priced too high? We dropped 10K after 2 weeks and other 10K a week later. Only negative we had was a couple of people didn’t like the layout, we can’t change that and we listened to what we were told to do.
Oh well, sorry to rant. Although I’m not really allowed to do that here.
Any way you look at it, we are in for a deeper downturn than I have predicted. Expect April to be awful – extreme low sales.
The shoe will drop not in April though. In September.
Condos will experience the most painful downfall. Also in September.
I will buy in August but I will put in offers, 25% below market price. Someone will bite.
Vern wrote:
“Any way you look at it, we are in for a deeper downturn than I have predicted.”
If you are so good at predicting what’s the winning super7 combo for this Friday?
Anyway, some bubbleheads have been saying this kind of stuff for months now and their deadlines always come and go.
We know who you guys really are.
Sherwood Park, 1600 sq foot house in S.P for under 400K may or may not be priced too high. But a house without an offer in 60 days definitely is.
I tried to post this a.m. but got deleted as spam. For the record I hate Spam…Spork, Kam and Klik are o.k. though! If my original post comes through I apologize in advance for 2 ramblings.
My observation was, that there are 2 very different markets developing in the Edmonton resale market. Has anyone been following Bob Truman’s stats? There were under 500 SFH sales on Mar22/08, then around 760 on Mar 29, and 878 on Mar31st. That’s a pickup of close to 400 sales in the last 9 days, and 118 on the last 2 days….1 of them a Sunday. Either the stats are off or SFH’s are really heating up. At any rate it’s the best sales month by over 20% since June/07. Maybe Sheldon or Sara could elaborate. Is it really that hot in the SFH market lately?
Condo sales however have been brutal…had they matched the increase that SFH’s had we’de have been very close to the 04/05 total. There were 5 months that were better sales wise since June/07.
My question to the masses is this. Why, if affordability is such an issue, is the ratio of SFH vs Condo sales getting wider? I mean, there is a huge amount of new Condo construction coming on this year, but a very small amount of new SFH construction beginning this fall. I can certainly see the condo market being weak for some time, yet I believe we’ll start seeing significantly lower SFH inventory sarting as early as Aug or Sept this year. Let’s here the theories, as I’de love to be able to figure this crazy market out.
Itchy, flippers like condos. They are relatively inexpensive and thus easy to flip.
With most flippers gone and only real buyers left, SFHs seem to be better values anyway.
we are no different here from the Americans, the easy credit is gone, and its not coming back, ever
35% of potential buyers have now been removed from the equation and on top of that, the past 2 years or so most of the what would be now ” new buyers ” have been also been removed from the equation.
prices will not be able to hold with inventories approaching 11,000
****Respone. Octi, squidly, gary and so I’ll agree with the assessment on the inventory price equation. Would love to see where you came up with the “no new buyers” , cause I happen to be working with quite a few and that “35%” of the buyers would be removed”. Like most of what you’ve posted it has no back bone just like the pseudonym you use eh squidders
Sheldon
Bunny,
But that’s what I’m saying. These are real buyers…people that are going to live in the property and have to pay the mortgage/taxes etc. So if affordability was a big issue the SFH vs Condo sales should be narrowing, not going the other way. My only explanation is that affordability is well down the list on factors that are influencing the Edmonton resale market.
thanks for the comparison, but you are confused : seriously how can prices hold with this amount of inventory for sale ? what caused the massive buid up ? and where do you think all these new buyers will come from ? how about a few good answers ?
Sheldon,
Some names are appropriate. Octopus now has 8 arms to pull numbers out of his ass with!
Itchy, I think affordability still tops the list. However, the economy is still in decent shape and people do have the money to buy half million houses. With a 100k family income at 4.5% interest rate, 500k is not really a far stretch.
At least, a 500k house typically has 2000+ sqft and a 5000+ sqft lot. The supply of such SFHs are ample, but not unlimited. Most of these are occupied before they are sold.
In contrast, condo supply is almost unlimited! Even though a lot of them are pre-sold, they really aren’t. When the condos are ready for move-in, the pre-buyer will either list it for sale, or move in and thus make the rental property he had occupied vacant. Either way, more pressure on the condo sales/rent market.
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The U.K. housing:
“The price of houses is driven by credit
My point? That the price of houses is not about the supply of houses and the demand for them in general, but about the supply of and demand for credit. You can only push the price of something up if you can – and if you want to – get the money together to do so.
So why are house prices falling now? Not because all of a sudden the average Englishman has decided he’d rather live in a caravan than in a four-bedroom executive home, but because house prices are well beyond the reach of prudent lending levels and the banks, paralysed by their new-found recognition of risk, will no longer lend at anything beyond cautious levels.
Got a 20% deposit and want to borrow three times your salary? Then you’re probably alright – albeit at a higher rate than you might have paid 12 months ago.
Got no deposit and want to borrow five times your income? Back to your caravan you go.”
http://www.moneyweek.com/file/44638/home-sour-home.html
A family income of 100k should buy a house priced 300k to 350k with about 20% down. To buy a 500k house the family income should be at least 140k assuming 20% down.
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Bunny,
That’s not bad. I know that both price and sales historically lag the SFH market by a year or so. So if I’m hearing you right, the condo market is basically where the SFH market was a year ago….full of investors that artificially raised demand. So the pain in the condo market may be down the road and then take some time to iron itself out as opposed to the SFH market which has been without the artificial demand of investors for about 10-12 months and is already into it’s sort itself out phase.
Actually, the more I sound it out…the more sense it makes.
Hey Sheldon,
Perhaps you could author a new monthly article, let’s say a few days after each monthly update, on “Super Stellar Cosmically Insightful Comments” posted to this blog. I’d love to see a list of these oh so brilliant comments. You could even rank them. That’s it! How about a top 10 list of the most (un)supported and (least) insightful comments made on this blog? Here is a short list to start you off:
- “…Condos will experience the most painful downfall. Also in September…” (based on what evidence?)
- “…flippers like condos. They are relatively inexpensive and thus easy to flip.” (again.. evidence for this?)
– “…we are no different from the Americans, the easy credit is gone, and it (is) not coming back, ever… 35% of potential buyers have now been removed from the equation…” (Duck and take cover! The end is near!)
- “…condo supply is almost unlimited!” (Soon they’ll be trading their worthless condos for food stamps!)
Please folks… try to keep the comments valid (ie. supported by evidence).
Interesting to see quite a number of houses that are still offered in the current ComFree issue come on the market on MLS at lower prices. Seems the realtors are talking some sense into overly optimistic sellers. One house takes the cake, coming down from $1,290,000 to $998,000. It seems easy to grossly overpay these days …
mdm
That last sentence in your comment should be.
“It seems easy to grossly overprice these days….” I think that is a little more close to reality. Unless of course you actually want to sell it. If your just fishing well then go ahead and overprice it, hell you never know you might get a bite.
If it sat on Comfree and didn’t sell I don’t think any buyer was overpaying, only the seller was overpricing.
How much longer can we go with high inventories and low sales before prices come down?
The ass is starting to come out of this market.
Pete
Prices have come down. Ask prices have come down, sales prices haven’t. Think about that for a while.
As another month goes by, sales remain steady especially with new adjusted prices since last fall.
Then the bubble folks come here and post non-sense like:
“she’s gonna blow”, “I wouldn’t pay more than $130K for that shoe box”, “it’s gonna be a bloodbath” and “everybody is leaving Alberta”, prices will collapse”, etc.
It is very revealing and testifies to their I.Q. level…
MASSIVE DROP: Homburg just dropped their prices. They have up to 1000 condos on the market right now (not on MLS). E.g. 1 Bdrm suite dropped from $220K to 180K overnight. Further reductions by September. If you buy now, you are a fool.
Just look at the graphs produced by Sara/Sheldon. Every graph is predicting a downturn…. only one exception – prices are still holding after the correction last fall. They will give in too. Gravity still exists.
Vern,
If you’re in the market for a condo, I agree that prices will likely be soft as the year goes forward as a lot of new construction comes on. However I’m thinking SFH prices won’t do much as most of the glut of new SFH’s have already come on the market.
One question….are these conversions or new condo’s?
This is all I could find on Homburg on what they have for sale.
Construction projects for resale—a 110 unit condominium tower in Calgary, Alberta; a 44 unit high end condominium project in the Eau Claire
area of Calgary, Alberta; a 154 unit residential complex in Grande Prairie, Alberta; a 10 unit residential project in Edmonton, Alberta;
45 condominium units in downtown Charlottetown, Prince Edward Island; a 75,000 square foot office tower; a prime commercial property in
downtown Calgary, Alberta, that will be redeveloped into a 10 story office tower consisting of 230,000 square feet and a 20 story office tower
consisting of 400,000 square feet; and a one third interest in a 140 unit condominium unit project in Montréal, Québec.
The also have 3 residential rental properties in Calgary.
I think 1000 units is stretching it Vern.
Itchy,
“I’m thinking SFH prices won’t do much as most of the glut of new SFH’s have already come on the market.”
… and haven’t sold. Supply still exceeds demand. That sales prices haven’t moved doesn’t mean much until the inventory disappears.
Home prices continued to rise in Canada in the first quarter of 2008 in every major market except Edmonton, according to a Housing Price Survey report released Thursday by Royal LePage Real Estate Services.
In Edmonton prices dropped for each type of housing measured in the study, with the sale price of a standard condo unit falling by 7.7 per cent to $235,000. The average bungalow fell by 4.9 per cent to $330,000, and the price of a two-storey by 3.7 per cent to $363,707.
“Despite a strong economy, consumer confidence began to waver as global oil prices continue to fluctuate; area buyers have grown weary of a housing market that is closely tied to the oil and gas sector,” the report said. “Employment levels in the area remain at all-time highs, which, when combined with low lending rates, positioned housing conditions slightly in the favour of area buyers.”
The only other city to see a decline was Fredericton, where the condo market saw prices fall by 3.8 per cent to an average of $126,000.
http://www.reportonbusiness.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20080403.wcdnhousing0403/BNStory/robNews/home
rj,
That’s true, and there will likely be high inventory for SFH’s for most of this year….however Jan/Feb sales have been outpacing new SFH starts by about 500 a month,and I can’t see Mar being much different, so after a lot of the Spec and Investor homes that have been coming on the market for the past 2 years get bought up…..burn through on inventory will happen quickly.
Itchy,
I think we’ve discussed this before… but, I’d be leery of projecting future inventory from the difference between resale volumes and new home starts. There are plenty of sales (indeed, I’d guess the majority of them) that do not impact overall demand at all – for example, people moving up to bigger and/or better homes, or moving down to a condo at retirement. Even in a market with a declining population, there’s still going to be a significant number of these sales – but obviously no overall demand for additional housing.
I think the more relevant metric is the ratio of immigration to new home starts.
An interesting item released today by RBC. Alberta is still doing good compared to the most other provinces but (economic growth half of what it was the last couple years) not as good as recent years. I would think this would be a factor regarding the huge amounts of inventories, low sales and the prospect for futher price adjustments.
Plus inflation (same article) According to the report, inflation in Alberta is still running at twice the national rate
Not so much of an Alberta advantage anymore.
Alberta economic growth decelerates, says RBC
Thursday April 3, 5:00 am ET
TORONTO, April 3 /CNW/ – According to the latest provincial forecast released today by RBC, Alberta’s economic growth is shifting into lower gear, as it moves down from its peak of 6.6 per cent in 2006 to the low-to-mid three per cent range in 2008 and 2009.
Itchy,
As it was pointed by rj SFH starts are only relevant with the first time buyers who in fact start the chain of moving up/down. And in reality there aren’t many first timers, maybe with the exception of those who used to rent and now bought a starter home.
It’s not a rocket science to predict the glut of SFHs for a long time to go unless there is a huge interprovincial migration of those who sold their home in Toronto or affordability adjusts to the first-timers needs. And mind this – new immigrant don’t usually have enough income or saving to buy, not temp workers are the buyers.
Hey Sheldon,
Where are the posting the daily stats?? EREB.com, cant find it
FYI,
EREB just released its numbers and SFH prices are up 1.5% from last month and 2% for the year. Sales are still on pace with 2005 levels about 200 off but still variably strong. SFD are going to do alright, i hate to say it but condos and rowhouses are going to be a different story. Any thoughts?? Agree/Disagree<
R and rj,
I stand by my assertion that if you’re selling 500 more SFD than new construction coming on….inventory will come down in a meaningful way, (not by 500, but significant none the less) especially when the new homes actually have real buyers and aren’t being immediately flipped upon possession.
Neil, I would do a bit more than “google” for research. May be you have heard of subsidiaries, shell companies, property management firms etc.
Bottom line, 4 buildings/communities for a total close to or exceeding 1000 units.
Drop in prices real (220K -> 180K) and advertised under the individual communities’ websites.
Itchy- Apparently, I can buy up to $900K (ING website says so). But why would I loose all/part of my down payment by buying now?
If I had bought last May like my colleague, I would have lost $60K.
In fact I bought a house and then pulled out (bad gut feeling). Boy, did I make the right decision!!
Thanks speculators but no thanks.
MASSIVE DROP:
As said earlier, condos ~1000 units all Homburg and only Homburg. Price drop throughtout.
And yes, all with in Edm. (Not Fort, not SP)
One other article sent my way today from the Canadian Press http://canadianpress.google.com/article/ALeqM5jc2PcFs7fcipTmGKFCJcZmens3uw:
Some title, some good comments:
Housing prices rise in Q1 in every major market except Edmonton: Royal Lepage
Enjoy.
I’m at a loss for an explanation as to why this Royal LePage report doesn’t jive with EREB…
It seems to me that someone over at Royal LePage made a mistake in their press release. Either there is something wrong with the numbers in the Royal LePage report or the EREB has not reported correctly:
http://www.royallepage.ca/CMSTemplates/AboutUs/Company/CompanyTemplate.aspx?id=1746
Royal LePage Q1 Average prices:
Bungalows $330k; 2 Story $363k
Condos $235K
EREB avg for Q1:
SFD $383k (379+382+387)
Condos $261k (257+264+263)
In fact, if you go to the Royal LePage “National Price Chart”, the numbers don’t add up to how they were reported in the press release.
http://docs.rlpnetwork.com/hps/2008Q1HPSChartEN.pdf
According to my off hand calculations, the end of Q1 prices should be (based on Q1 avg for Castledowns, Clairview, Riverbend/Tewilliger areas reported in the National Price Chart):
Bungalows: $356K
2 Story: 373K
Condos: 257K
First, this is way way closer to EREB. Second, this survey doesn’t seem to even include all regions of Edmonton. Third, don’t believe the hype folks!
Question: how does this affect pre-sale units? In other words, if there is a pre-sale signed for x amount, and the market changes such that the price goes down, can you get a new cheaper pre-sale price?
Vern
Here is link to there year-end report for Homburg Invest Inc.
http://www.sedar.com/DisplayCompanyDocuments.do?lang=EN&issuerNo=00013330
Click on Annual-Report English. You have to enter in a code for spam control.
Here’s a link to Homburg Canada Incorporated the parent of Homburg Invest Inc.
http://www.homburgcanada.com/AbsPage.aspx?id=2&siteid=1&lang=1
See if you can find any mention of 1000 unit/properties in Edmonton. All I see is 10. You must be mistaken about the name “Homburg”. Could you please supply a link to these MASSIVE DROP: 4 buildings/communities with 1000+ units.
To make sure I wasn’t mistaken I actually googled “Homburg”, both web and news, and I still come up with nothing. So please give me something….
Thanks
Vern is an alias here.
Over at that bubble blog, he is known as Brent or Jim_s.
He is trying to preach for his bubble parish…
Ok… so the question is why with such high inventory, why is the market remaining stable? Where is the big bubble? When is it going to come and crash and burn? It appears by what I read here that those predicating a melt down are doing so under the assumption that the investors are all holding 2-3 mortgages and are paying for these houses by themselves. I guess they assume that when they look on MLS or comfree at homes and see that they are empty, that nobody is living in them… As my name indicates I am an investor and I have a couple houses in this wild and crazy market. All of them are up for sale, all look empty on MLS, but sorry to burst your bubble, I am not in a panic to sell. Why? because they are all rented, my mortgage is being paid by others and in fact I have some positive cash flow. I assure you I am not the only guy in this world who has figured this out. Yes, I would love to sell tomorrow, but I don’t have to sell. In fact I will wait till the right offer comes along, and if it takes 1 or 2 years, so be it.
The rental market is great, I had one unit come open 2 weeks ago and had a tenant for it in 4 days. One of my tenants needed a roommate and had one in 48 hours. On her online ad, she had over 1000 viewings in a span of 48 hours.
I don’t want the bubble bursters to buy, I need them to rent my house and pay my mortgage and make me money. Ok!!! being a little hard or sarcastic, but for all those out there wanting the market to fall flat, think about the whole picture and understand there are options for people other then giving the homes away.
Neil,
Look up Clareview courts. Look up Holland Gardens. That’s a start.
In fact, it is more than 1000 units.
MASSIVE DROP
Ray – Aliases. I think not. Sheldon would know and out me in a second.
Sorry. This proves to me that you are paranoid.
Investor Guy: If you bought before the boom, well before that is then you would have done much better selling it sometime ago. You missed it.
Now, empty houses are not rented houses. And there are 35% in Edm. Just ask Sheldon. Here they are carrying huge servicing costs.
If you bought the house during the boom, you are not having any advantage over investing in a bare-bones savings account!
So the bottom line is, inventory is way too high. RE prices are always sticky to come down but gravity does exisit.
Vern, I think you missed my point.
InvestorGuy,
A few thoughts…
1. Average/median sales price does not take sales mix into account. Last year, over 75% of properties were selling. This year, its about half that. So although the average _sales_ price is holding roughly steady, only higher quality properties are selling – meaning the average value of all homes in Edmonton has likely decreased. From what I understand, this is what occurred in many US markets – sales volumes dropped and inventory jumped (but prices held as sales mix experienced a “shift to quality”), _then_ prices started to decline.
2. Real estate isn’t very liquid, so a “crash and burn” will take time. Unlike stocks, which can be liquidated in a fraction of a second very cheaply, houses take time and cost money to sell. It will take months and likely years for the bubble to fully deflate – anyone who expects a “Black Monday” is likely to be disappointed (same goes for anyone who thinks the absence of a “Black Monday” means that there isn’t going to be a crash).
3. My experience is that a lot of real estate “investors” can’t actually evaluate their investments. Common problems include:
- no comprehension of opportunity cost
- failure to understand the downside of leverage (or, for that matter, what leverage is)
- inability to enumerate all expenses when calculating rental cash flow (eg taxes, insurance, maintenance, sinking fund for capital costs, vacancies)
- failure to include all transaction costs when calculating their “profits” from a flip
The meme that “real estate always goes up” is so pervasive and the stories of quick riches are so commonplace (many true, no doubt), that it will take some time for the collective Alberta consciousness to adjust. In the meantime, some investors will continue to subsidize bad investments without actually understanding what they’re doing.
4. I don’t think anyone is under the illusion that all sellers _need_ to sell. But numbers I’ve seen suggest 35% of the listings on MLS are vacant/unoccupied. Assuming this is even close to accurate, that’s a whole lot of seriously cash flow negative properties, and thus a whole lot of highly motivated sellers. I suspect some of these sellers are willing to hold out for a while instead of crystallizing their losses, but unless something quite dramatic happens (eg massive immigration) – the much hoped for spring bump doesn’t look likely to materialize, and they’ll have to bite the bullet sooner or later.
RJ: The best post I have ever read here.
Vern
That’s better. But now it’s time to pick your 1000+ units apart.
It’s Homburg – Centron Teamwork. Homburg Investment partnered up with a Centron to build 4 projects
Wellington Courts – 216 Units
Holland Gardens – 302 Units
Clairviw Courts – 226 Units
MacEwan Village – ??? Units
Wellington Courts, Holland Gardens and Clairview Courts are classified as past projects on Homburg – Centron Teamwork Website.
http://www.homburgcentron.com/hc/macewan-village.php
So I would say most of the 746 units that were for sale are already sold.
The 4th project “MacEwan Village” is in the rental market. Here’s a link if you want to rent a unit.
http://www.larlyn.com/residential/display1.asp?func=display&resid=111&tree=15#.
The ball is back in your court vern, no-what I mean Vern….
Investor
I agree with you, you have to factor in the economic conditions surrounding the market.
RJ
Your statement about a flight to quality is right, there are only a limited number of real buyers out there right now, so they aren’t going to buy crap, no matter what the price. Investors/Specs will, real buyers won’t. You also assume that most people actually have to sell, I, like Investor don’t and this has every thing to do with economic climate in Alberta. When poeple realize that their propoerty is not selling even after dropping their price they will pull their listing and put it on the rental market. Hell they may even leave it on the market, don’t forget it doesn’t cost them anything. So short term all you renters out there you will not be getting much of a rental increases this year.
If all has to do with human nature, most will rent their property out at a loss rather than lose 20% off the top. It’s easier to take losses slowly, especially during strong economic times. Don’t forget Alberta’s economy is still great, ie no foreclosures, no easy credit, no free money, so there is no panic like in some markets in the US. Yes some will have to sell at discount but not enough to effect the Average/Median price. With the average/median price holding up like it has, it just goes to show what the average person/family in Alberta can afford. If they couldn’t afford it the aveage/median price would show it.
So I would say that for the next year the only properties the will make up the Average/Median in Alberta will be the quality properties. Like I said before: the Ask price has come down, but the Sale price hasn’t. So to me this means a flight to quality, it has nothing to do with affordability.
At least the market is fairly stable and inventory is getting sold. Things look fairly balanced which overall makes for a confident buying public.
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Rolling the bubble…
“However, prices are softening in Alberta as its once-hot housing market continues to cool. And it appears Alberta’s loss has been Saskatchewan’s gain.
Saskatchewan’s prosperous economy is retaining those considering leaving, while a more affordable cost of living attracts skilled workers from Alberta.
Royal LePage predicts Edmonton will have the softest market in the country, with prices having slipped recently after two years off blistering gains and not expected to advance at all in 2008.”
http://www.canada.com/reginaleaderpost/news/business_agriculture/story.html?id=d562c843-22f0-41a3-8b05-c34ec7b25e9d
Manitoba next…
“Despite the continued rise in housing prices, Winnipeg remains reasonable compared with other cities.
“Relative to the Canadian average, Winnipeg homes are affordable,” said Soper.
The national average cost for a two-storey home runs more than $400,000, while in Winnipeg the average price sits around $250,000, said Soper.”
http://www.winnipegsun.com/Business/2008/04/04/5191306-sun.html
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Vern,
Thanks, I appreciate the compliment.
Sheldon, would be interested in seeing you do a blog on rentals, vacancy rates, etc. I have my own numbers, but curious to see someone elses ideas and data.