Some days you just need to stir things up. Why not, since September I’ve listened to shitidiots cry wolf about crashes and other crazy musings as to why the market is going down. Unfortunately for most of them who can barely scratch any credibility out of there nose it hasn’t happened. Oh but they do try… Then there’s those hopless optimists who feel the market is full of helium thereby rising to new heights for ever and ever.
Fortunately I live in the real world. Certainly there is doom and gloom out in the world today; I can give you at least 15 reasons you shouldn’t step out your front door in the morning. A couple of weeks ago I could have given you -36 reasons.
I don’t very often respond to threads but today (being the "awards" time of year) I feel like giving out some oscars and razzie’s:
- Inventory plays a huge role in the market place and it does affect pricing. The strength of sales in January, (this is where I hand out the first razzie to the bonehead comment on the weekly market update) which was reported correctly by the Realtors Association of Edmonton as the second best January ever for sales – beating out January 2006 was nothing short of impressive. It makes you wonder where the market would be if the inventory was half of what it is now. Why was it so strong? September 2007 sales sucked. October rebounded. November was so so. December was actually impressive but January was blistering considering all the negative media happenings in the states and the sizeable inventory. My thoughts on it are that many people are looking at the fact that the prices haven’t tumbled like some have predicted and are looking at the opportunities as they relate to them. I just sold a home for a family and they moved closer to their kids’ school. So all things relative they are and have been in the market for the long term. So my razzie goes to the clown who said the REALTORS association was lying.
- My Oscar goes to the comment about the "ridiculous discounts" offered on another Edmonton blog. This is incredible acting – best supporting role in a farce for certain. Think it through – if 10 units sell for $150,000 whether or not the sales are reported on MLS their values establish the value in that complex. If a buyer wants to buy another unit in the complex and the last 10 sales were at prices $60,000 lower they’d have to be crazy to buy. Automatically if they had to resell they face a SERIOUS disadvantage in marketing their properties against the 10 other people who paid $60,000 less. In addition, what data will the appraisers base their values for buyers bank on? Oh yeah – those 10 sales previous sales. Seriously do you really think the developer will raise those prices? I doubt it but I’m a skeptic. What happens if the developer doesn’t sell them quickly enough? Will he reduce them 10 grand making the 10 people who paid 150,000 stuck? So hopefully common sense will prevail. Quality and good value are irreplaceable, not even by gimmicks. Shop wisely. If you are a first time buyer or not immersed in the market use the services of a REALTOR. They are in the market full time and can help you sift through the crap and give you information and advice that you just can’t pick up reading a blog, this one included.
Sheldon, I think that terms such as “crash” or “tumble” are really vague. Instead, we could use more quantitative arguments.
For example, according to Bob Truman’s site, on average, for a SFH in Edmonton:
Feb 07, $384,207 buys a 1387 sf;
Jun 07, $442,817 buys a 1350 sf;
Feb 08, $396,409 buys a 1468 sf.
The SP/SF has declined 17.7% from the peak. Crash or not, do you think that SP/SF will further decline in the next few months? By how much? When will it stabilize? Thanks.
Hey Sheldon,
Thanks for the oscar.
However, I encourage you in the future to actually read, understand, and then think about what was written. I didn’t once state anywhere in the comment:
“Have them post the discounted rates”
In actuallity that would be suicide as they stated on their blog. Nothing of the sort was mentioned to that, what I was actually pointing out, was the remainder of the units in conjunction with the other 300 units for sale through that site would actually futher reduce the overall average price on a condo if they where put to the MLS site which this site bases all its monthly stats on.
But cudo’s again, and thanks.
Saab, I’m so jealous you got an oscar and I didn’t.I think I bother Sheldon more than anyone thus I deserved the oscar.
Oh laura, well you just gotta put yourself out there, and take a chance it seems.
One day you too can have someone read what you write, and then comprehend 1/10th of it.
Guess the morale of the story is don’t assume people will fully understand what you write, and be extremely verbose on your explinations so there isn’t any misunderstandings.
The MLS stats are never correct as they do not include the FSBO #’s.
It is absolutly impossible to have correct stats when 1/3 are missing.
Sorry laura your facts are incorrect and unsubstantiated garbage. FSBO’s may account for 1/3 of the inventory but not even close to that in the sales.
Comfree for example has no verifiable stats and they were so embarassed by them in October – November they pulled their sale stats and the months previously recognizing that they don’t want to have people looking at the sales.
btw you don’t bother me. Your inability to get past simple concepts fascinates me…
So when did you start working for comfree?
not sure how to comment on that Sheldon as how can you calculate supply and demand without all the supply. Talk about not being able to get by a simple concept… no sense to argue with you as you would say anything to take a conversation off of comfree. Please reread your comment so you can see how ridiculous it is.
Readers I do not work for comfree. Please consider Sheldons motives for his comment.
***You can’t possibly calculate the entire markets sales, but you can extrapolate the most likely numbers by the 80 – 90 of sales that take place through MLS that are verifiable. Not even the large percentage of Private sales that are sold by REALTORS can be verified because they can not be cross referenced.***
Sheldon should have another look at his competitions website as all the stats are there for each month. Where he got they pulled their stats from I don’t know as it is not true and they are there for all to see. Also they speak of pricing your property correct.
I will direct your comments to Comfree Sheldon, they should know what you are saying. Perhaps you should be more careful with your comments. At least throw in a half truth every now and then.
Don’t like to keep insulting you but you keep asking for it.
***lol…laura you can’t insult me. I’ve been worked over by experts and you are certainly not that. They were listing their list to sales ratio, then they pulled it when they started to sink like a stone, then they renamed it success sales or something like that but they never add up. None of its verifiable. There is no reporting requirement and no way for them to verify what is reported to them. So come on now…is this the best you can do to insult me…***
Laura, on some less respectable blogs, the activities you engage in here, would be described as trolling. In case you aren’t aware that is not a compliment.
Geez I think you’re right Laura, you should have gotten the oscar considering Sheldon’s reaction to your comments haha
Correction, given the “new comments” you just made Laura I think you do deserve the oscar. haha
thanks saab that to me is a compliment
A fun day blogging!
agree with and given thought to laura’s points.
Sheldon I think you should deal with real estate investors. You have a good take on the market. I listened to rein and bought in October not a great move I should have bought this aprill.
I thank you for your blog it is informative and entertaining (bears)
***My comments to investors would be simple. There are good fundamentals on a variety of very good investments. Obviously right now short term investments are going to be riskier, but there are some very sound investments for those who their research***
I think I could count the number of times I’ve agreed with Laura on one hand. If I had a hand with no fingers and thumb. But I’m enjoying how she has become the Darth Vader of this blog…
Comfree had something called “sold-to-listing” ratio which I couldn’t make any sense of. They changed this to “sales success” then pulled it altogether.
http://albertarealestatewatch.blogspot.com/2007/10/edmonton-comfree-mystery-stats.html
I should read ALL the comments before a shameless plug
***My comments to investors would be simple. There are good fundamentals on a variety of very good investments. Obviously right now short term investments are going to be riskier, but there are some very sound investments for those who do their research***
And this is why you’re a salesman not a market analyst.
This is the most ridiculous post yet
Pete,
Thanks for your comments. Sheldon often comes across as he is qualified in all things $$ to make his comments. And thanks for reminding all that he is a salesman.
John, thanks for pondering my opinions.
I think if Comfree became more transparent, better regulated, and charged a little more for their services, say 1.5% of the total sales price of a property, which would be a reasonable $4500.00+ GST on a 300,000 property, and provided a dedicated sales rep (who didn’t work soley on commission) who acted as intermediary and showed your property and did the paperwork, then they would corner the market and obliterate MLS.ca.
Just my thoughts on the fact that the current commission structure is very flawed. If I’m selling a well kept property at a reasonable price in a desirable location, then it’s like cake to a Realtor. On the other hand, if I’m trying to unload an old dump in a less desirable area, the Realtor has to work much harder to sell it, but the end result is the same. The commission is based soley on the sale price and not the amount of hours put into the project. No other profession bills it’s clients this way.
here are my totally unprofessional thoughts on the current Edmonton market. New listings seem to be coming online at asking prices, which reflect recent sales. I’ve seen comparable properties in the same area priced $20,000 apart depending on when they were listed. I think everyone, including myself underestimated investor momentum and how it can push up a real estate market (just like a stock price). Edmonton was the flavour of the month back in 06, but the big money seems to be shoring up property in Regina and parts of Ontario and Eastern Canada. Vancouver seems ready to tip over the edge like Edmonton did last summer ($385,000 for a 500 square feet condo in Yaletown!!) crazy!
The talk around the water cooler is that LOTS of Canadians are starting to snap up bargains in Florida and parts of the States. Compared to Edmonton, $400,000 buys a beautiful 4000sq feet home with outdoor pool in the Orlando area. I still think the Edmonton market could take off again at any time. There are lots and lots of people on the sidelines waiting for the “BUY” signal!
Lol…laura you make me laugh…you sound as if this is your blog…
I am certainly not an expert in ALL things $$. I have Never represented that.
In all my investment articles I try to point out that investment real estate is very broad and diverse and is affected by a multitude of different factors. I do have a qualified opinion in investment real estate but do not claim to have an expert opinion.
What is the basis of your opinion. Your experience as a new home hostess. Post your resume. You have no problem trashing my experience and education, let see how yours fares.
My guess is you won’t because there’s nothing to see there.
You often accuse tenants of being bitter renters but most often its you who is bitter. You failed in real estate as a new home sales person is that where your bitterness comes from.
At least its easy to see why a tenant might be bitter in this market.
your opinions have no basis in fact, and you have to result to insults to try and make a point.
I a salesman. I guess that’s suppose to hurt. At least I’m something. xxx
Ken, good points except if comfree became that transparent they would be realtors.
I think most often it is forgotten they are simply a marketing tool. Part of their beauty and success is they don’t sell your house, you sell your house, they support you with advertising.
If the realtors are looking to blame something on the comfree issue, they should blame technology, just like the tax prep business and the travel business and many other industries that have taken over the prehistoric ways of doing business.
The issue is not comfree, it’s FSBO. People have just had it with the 50% raise realtors have received. People had a problem with their cut b4 the 50% raise.
I think realtors need to focus on their industry more and less at comfrees if they want to recapture the lost revenues. These lost revenues are millions and millions and millions, right here in our little city. Divide that by the # of realtors and I am thinking it would be 100′s of thousands of $ each.
Well Sheldon, you do get a little hot under the collar when the comfree issue comes up. One would almost think you live in fear of the comfree concept. If they’re as crappy as you say then they really shouldn’t threaten your business.
I have bought and sold property per fsbo and all went well. Got a few appraisals, hired a lawyer and saved a ton of bucks.
I have listed with realtors who really did nothing except list the property on MLS and wait for the phone calls to come pouring in. That is just too much money for too little work.
Currently, I have two properties for sale and I have negotiated a commission of 5 grand each with a realtor. These are 300,00 dollar properties. This in my view is a little more realistic than the sratospheric commissions realtors are currently enjoying.
I would encourage other readers to do the same.
In my opinion, the public’s perception of Realtors has shifted significantly over the last decade — from viewing realtors as a necessary evil, to viewing them as an unnecesary one.
From my experience, dealing with Realtors has largely been a negative experience — not because the Realtors have been unlikeable, and certainly not because they’ve netted me inferior profits on the sale of my homes.
It all boils down to perceived value for the services being purchased — and every time I’ve dealt with a realtor, I’ve walked away feeling that I paid far too much for the services that were provided to me — regardless of the final sale price of my home (or the amount of profit I made).
Do I believe that a Professional Realtor could consistently secure a sale price that would exceed the price I could get using a service like ComFree? Absolutely.
But regardless, I’m always left feeling like I’ve paid the Realtor far more than their effort deserved. And I’m willing to sacrifice a bit of my own profit to eliminate that negative feeling.
It might be cutting off my nose despite my face, but it’s human nature. And the success of services like ComFree has revealed this to be somewhat of a universal truth.
Which scenario would make you feel better over the long-term: earning $50,000 a year in a company where everyone else is making $50,000 a year — or getting $60,000 a year in a company where everyone else is making $120,000?
When Realtors arrive at an honest answer to that question, they’ll perhaps be better equipped to evolve their business model — and start recapturing some of the market-share they’ve lost over the last few years.
***Fair comment. I am surprised that you’d bite your nose off to spite yourself. The beauty of doing it on your own is you only have yourself to blame. Honestly the problem with the business model is simply that consumers won’t pay me up front or hourly. Otherwise It’s a no brainer. This isn’t an Edmonton only issue. To have my knowledge and experience working for you I have to be compensated. I have 4 different marketing packages for clients that are based on different service levels and exposure. Pretty novel compared to most of the industry but even still.
It seems like its easy to you but when I show your property 7 or 8 times and nothing happens most people don’t want to pay an hourly wage in that case. They want to pay for success. We are pretty innovative in our marketing and fee structures but that fact of the matter is that there is a difference in abilities of parties to conduct business on their own and represent themselves plus even those who are more than qualified recognize certain nuances and subtleties that can be of value to them and reduce their risk on a very significant investment.***
Sheldon, noticed you slipped your comment ahead of mine.
Pete called you a salesman, why don’t you direct some of your energy towards him.
Have you looked over your last 6 posts. You insulted me in your previous article, thats what got me going, this time. You have insulted me in every response.
Clearly I threaten you with my firm opinions regarding FSBO and unfair realtor fees.
I don’t care to even respond to the last rant, you sound foolish all on your own.
Sheldon,
I hate to say it but I think you achieved your goal in this topic.
Unfortunately your doing exactly what you’re claiming posters are doing to you, and really aren’t any better than them, and are quickly moving this whole blog in a downward spiral. No you aren’t the only one doing this, but you are facilitating it.
Ultimately whatever sling fest you wanted to start is working, but you’re doing so at risk of damaging the image of Coldwell Banker even though you have a nice little disclaimer stating this is an opinion based blog.
Even with that disclaimer, new viewers of this blog may not come back, or appreciate threads like these.
Before you cry foul on this, yes this is your blog, your sandbox, whatever you want to call it, but I can’t help but feel this needs to be pointed out before anymore foolishness continues.
Man up, be the bigger guy, but don’t continue enabling the pointless posting.
$0.02
Saab, thanks for your two cents. I have thousands of posts in which we have presented logical fair minded article information based up articles. I guess if you don’t like it you don’t have to visit or comment. Just my $0.02
Nice post Dax. I agree with you entirely. It has been a problem I have wrestled with. I just feel for the most part that enough is done to earn those pay days. I haven’t ever used an agent for that exact reasoning and don’t know if I ever will. That being said I think Sheldon and Sarah move a fair distance in closing that gap. If you look at the exposure and work they have put into marketing for their clients, a listing with them would be getting pretty decent bang for your buck.
“Stirring it up…”
The title definitely fits the post/comments so far.
Real estate investing in Alberta has obviously moved away from the flippers market of the last two years. Anyone that has bought in the last ten’ish months has probably lost several thousands of dollars on their investments so far, unless they were able to bargain for some special pricing.
Despite this, real estate investing is still the flavor of the month. Can’t escape the advertisements for real estate investment firms fighting for all the last minute rsp contributions.
The whole FSBO debate between Laura/Sheldon seems pretty silly. I don’t think that realtors are any different than financial planners. Half of them are providing a service to people that need some experienced advice for an upfront fee and the other half are just sales guys trying to make some commission without much regard for the clients seeking their help.
As per Sheldon above, I fail to see the mystery in realty.
Basically, you establish a value, which an appraiser can do. Then you advertise and do showings. For most, advertising consists of MLS and newspaper ads. Big deal. You take offers, negotiate a few fine points and send it all off to the lawyer. In most cases, none of this is so complex or time consuming that a fee of 15 or 20 thousand is deserved. Hello? most people put in many months of full days of work to earn that much. If you make a modest yearly income because you only sell a few houses a year because there are too many realtors, how is that my problem?
I have realtors most helpful when buying, especially when in a hurry. Last time though, I had everything I wanted to see picked from MLS and the guy just drove me around all day. This was nice, but I could have driven myself and met the listing realtors.
***Sounds good Alberto but overly simplistic in that you just put the ads in the paper and it sells.
As for working with a buyers agent. If you know and are certain about values, history, timing issues relative and the ALL the factors purchasing your property then go for it. Some people I know who are extremely well educated recognize the value a true professional can bring to them in a transaction. If you don’t see the value you have the option to go it yourself….Sheldon****
“Saab, thanks for your two cents. I have thousands of posts in which we have presented logical fair minded article information based up articles. I guess if you don’t like it you don’t have to visit or comment. Just my $0.02″
I’m guessing you’ve never heard this expression -
“A good name, like good will, is got by many actions and lost by one.” Quote: Francis Jeffery
BTW I never said “don’t like it” as you seem to think I have, but rather the post was intended to bring things back into your defined “logical and fair minded” posting practices before things began heading down the road of brawl-hall.com
***Lol…We’ll if I’ve lost it (goodwill) it was never worth having if it can be lost so easily…Quote Sheldon Johnston.
***
why did saabs last post disappear?
***I’m not going to deal with personal insults. It was deleted.***