Here is our weekly update on the Edmonton real estate market. (Last week’s numbers are in brackets.)
For the past 7 days:
# New listings: 319 (378)
# Sales: 207 (206)
Ratio: 65 (55)
# Price changes: 214 (325)
# Expired Listings: 157 (558)
# Canceled, withdrawn and terminated listings: 158 (117)
Net loss/gain in listings this week: -203 (-503)
Active listings for single family homes: 3223 (3309)
Active listings for condos: 2183 (2252)
So sales are steady…basically the same number last week as this week. Not as much of an overall loss this week as last week. I expect the inventory to continue to drop until the second week on January when things should start to pick up again.
Know what I like?
Sales are steady.
Price changes are lower.
New listings are down.
YOU HAVE TO MARKET your listing.
Edmonton and Alberta’s market are VIBRANT AND VIABLE.
I am from Edmonton. I see this everyday.
Where are posters from?
Florida?
Ontario?
How would you know about this market, PICASSO?
If anything, Alberta will become selective about its new residents. Don’t earn $100K? Stay in Ontario. Period.
Ray, don’t you think it is interesting that Picasso bought in Rio and claims he rents in Calgary. He commented that he bought several years ago for $50K US. His value has increased 0%. Had he bought in Calgary and just rented/vacation rental or hotel in rio I wonder how much he would be ahead of the game. Now I don’t like to take sides but as you are ultra right wing and most of the others on this blog are extreme left, I find myself sensing alot of sour grapes from the left. Wishing for “end of days” is good to keep the right on thier toes but how serious can you take someone who is negative ALL the time? You just keep up your fight as I am starting to lean your way, based on facts not ” Black Sunday” doomers.
Oops, my mistake. I meant Carioca Canuk. Piccasso seems to have a fan club all of his own. He should start his own website. By the way, welcome back to E town Piccasso. So did prices drop enough for you while you were gone?
car,
Thanks car, yup back in sub zero snow land, thank goodness it’s not -30 C. No they haven’t dropped enough but I don’t think it’s relevant for me anyways. I don’t work in Edmonton so why would I buy in Edmonton, let alone the crap climate and inflated prices. It was pretty slick and quick coming from YEG on East Anthony Henday to Sherwwod Park.
car27…..
It is not a claim…it is a fact….and $60K CAD (R$120K) is the correct number. Ask Sheldon or Sara to source the IP address I am curently posting from for proof. I hav ebeen down here 22 times in the last 7 years……at $1K a week for a nice hotel and 3 weeks at a time rougly per trip…..that number works out to be well in excess of my purchase price.
I rent in downtown west end Calgary for $1,100 a month all in except for internet and phone.
As many others here probably do, I ´DO NOT´ consider residential RE an investment….but shelter….and a neccesity not to be speculated with. Insofar as politics are concerned I lean so far to the right that I sometimes walk in circles.
Since May prices went down by 10% for SFH’s. That’s still up 8% since January. I anticipate that homes will go up at inflation from hereon.
There were 50% more listings in 2007 than for the previous year. Bear in mind that some listings out there will never sale at the list price because those house don’t show well and were not properly maintained over the years.
Overall the market seems all right. The good homes priced right are still selling. It’s a natural selection of what’s offered out there. I’m gonna list mine in late spring and see what happens. If it sells I am aiming for a nice river view condo.
This is very revealing:
http://www.oilweek.com/news.asp?ID=13188
The article mentions $200 Billion in investments in Alberta.
Ooohh they also go on comparing Alberta to Dubai and Shanghai as far as economic outlook and development. However they do not mention anything about a bust or other negatives.
Kind of puts back in perspective some oil companies scaling down and whining about the royalties.
BTW I read some posts here about Venezuela… are people here seriously thinking about Venezuela as a safe and sound oil investment alternative to Alberta? Man, thinking about drinking Kool aid!!!!!
Guys,
I am working in this Oil Sands Industry, I do not know a lot about companies but the major EPC companies have started laying off people. The numbers are not very high but the thing is this the current work load is way less for the manpower on board.
Lets hope for the best…and again the prices of the last year were fluffed to incorporate a big speculative factor. It cant stay here…if in any case it stays here it grow minimal in the next decade..provided another speculation takes place.
There is a disconnect between what level of investment is proposed in Alberta and what is happening in the stock market.
The iShares CDN S&P/TSX Cappd Enrgy Indx Fnd XEG is at:
http://finance.google.ca/finance?q=TSE%3AXEG
This index has increased by only 3.6% over the last year. This is not a sufficient demonstration of investor support required to pull off major capital expenditures by O&G companies. A lot of O&G companies I know are sitting on land but unable to develop due to not enough investment capital.
So while people on this board talk of the amazing opportunities of investment capital in Alberta it certainly is not being reflected in the stock market. The media stories at the bottom of this post are pretty telling as well.
I have yet to see a housing cycle that traces backwards 10% to only reach new highs in the new year, I don’t see this as being any different. It’s more likely we will see slumping house prices for the next 4-6 years.
“Oil patch faces spending drop”
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20071212.wroilpatch1212/BNStory/energy/home
“The name of the game is Survivor”
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20071211.wrjrsmain11/BNStory/energy/home
Everybody here must bear in mind that for 2006 when Edmonton’s GDP grew at some unsustainable record rate of around 7%, we couldn’t do that again.
Very unhealthy for a society. Economists were screaming for a necessary slowdown targeting a range of 4% GDP hike. We seem to have achieved that. For sure, the infrastructure is not present to sustain huge GDP hikes.
Of course it may mean either layoffs or slowdown in oil industry. The oil is still there.
Alberta is still the place to be. By April-May, housing sales will go up again. Crappy homes probably make up 30% of the listings.
The nice homes will find takers at close to list price.
Builders are projected to slow down as well.
Good balance!!!
Now if we could only find more folks to fill jobs in the service and R&D areas…
What a dream come true this bubble must have been for those that dumped their crappy homes early this year. Probably some specuvestor wannabee bought them too. To bad so sad.
Hey picasso. Since you are so brilliant and are sure that there is going to be a crash why don’t you cash in on it? The average price of a SFH in Edmonton right now is what $415k? Why don’t you advertise some contracts and go into them with people promising to build them houses in 3 years down the road for say $400k. So basically go short on Edmonton real estate market. FYI, I will be your first customer, just tell me where to sign. So unless you wanna put your money where your mouth is either offer some useful information, engage in cordial conversation or shut your big yap.
What really makes me laugh is guys like Carioca and Picasso don’t even live here in town but love to slam edmonton because it is claimed that edmonton will crash so it makes them happy?!?
I wonder if those two were posting here when we rode the high in May…
Back to RE. I very much doubt analytical capabilities from some EREB folks. Mrs Pratt has said lots of conflicting statements (i.e. her price assessments) in 2007. What’s her background?
Jesse, where are you getting your numbers from? Average price is $376 for SFH!
The gig is up Jesse or haven’t you noticed. If you want to pay $400+ G’s for a 2 story card board box with no garage in beautiful balmy Edmonton with the hope it’s going to increase in price. Go for it!
If you want to take your bull blinders off for a second, here’s a good read
http://tinyurl.com/2gforp
As I said, I didn’t know what the average price is. I ended the statement with a question mark. Once again Picasso, lets enter into a contract then. I will agree to pay you $400k for you to build me a house 3 years from now. Since it is only worth on average $376k and it is going to go down then you can make some money here. Other than that just shut your big yap.
Interesting article. Forecast for 2008. Note that Alberta will go up modestly.
http://www.thestar.com/Business/article/286287
I believe that a “modest” price hike would be 1-3%. range… Which means that the average SFH priced at $377K in November may go for as much as $387K in a year from now. As long as December stays put.
Nowhere did the article mention the words bubble, bust or crash.
BTW: All successful sales recently in Edmonton (info from a RE agent) is because the house showed very well, was welcoming, TIDY, had desirability, landscaped and was priced well.
The garbage listings with lino floors, lack of upkeep and derelict fences will not sell.
That RE person also told me that emotionally, a house will sell within 90 seconds of a first impression in that house. That seems to be the when the trigger’s pulled.
PICASSO:
If you and your buddy CARIOCA don’t live her, laugh at the RE situation in Alberta and bash Edmonton, what are you doing on this blog?
Don’t have friends?
Are you just a guy that got priced out of this market and now are envious of others? Can you answer me why you bash Edmonton every post but you keep coming back ???
Royal LePage ‘forecast’ a 1% price increase for Edmonton next year. Worst of the 10 cities in the report. And if that is what the REALTORS are forecasting it’s likely to be worse than that. Prices are still overshot their fundamentals a good 20ish%. It could be years before prices and sales start to pick up again.
I am not probust..just proreality. Based on the assumption that the houses that show well are the only one selling and that we agree that the average price reported monthly is the average value of those that sold is not curious then that when you go into MLS, most houses that show well are over $380 with most in the 400s. Sara, Sheldon, does this mean then that those that do sell are taking huge slices off their list prices?
For the Edmonton and surrounding areas covered by Bob Truman’s stats, avg SFH price down a further $6,000 from Nov 30th.
See for yourselves.
http://www.bobtruman.com/Edmonton_SFH_stats/page_1918017.html
Ray,
“Interesting article. Forecast for 2008. Note that Alberta will go up modestly.”
Here is the full release:
http://tinyurl.com/2pct72
I’m sure everyone on this board recognizes that Royal LePage is a biased source (not sure why the Star feels it is necessary to reprint their release as news).
Edmonton has the lowest projected increase, at 1% (which of course is actually a real value decrease). The next lowest is 3.5%, which is perhaps a bit better than inflation. Apparently (and somewhat remarkably, imo), no market in the country will see YoY nominal declines – reminds me of the euphemistic “Strong Buy/Buy/Hold” rating system of equities analysts.
A 1% increase is a joke. If that’s what their forecasting, then the eternally optimistic EREB is way off, again! One thing I’d like to know is, Where have all the listings gone that didn’t sell in ’07? Have they just been erased from existence? Have some of these sellers decided to carry two (or more) mortgages forever? Were these sellers just listing for the hell of it? These market forecasts are historically positive, and looking back, EREB never forecast even so much as a modest increase in inventory for ’07. Yet, the reallity was a HUGE increase in homes for sale…..The most listings in the history of the city of Edm! There is no way there will be any growth in ’08. It sure would be nice if a forecast or two came close. Why even have them?
The only thing we don’t know is what percentage of these unsold listings from ’07 will show up in ’08, as well as what are the number of new listings for ’08. I do not believe that people list their home for the heck of it….I believe ’08 will be a tough year.
Oh, but wait…..we have a 200 billion dollar upgrader planned for Prairie River Flats, 800 km North of Fort McMurray. Ya, that will solve all of our RE problems.
Anyway… 200+ SFH are still selling every week so far. So… I think that I will do well when I list mine in May.
I agree that only 1% for an increase forecast in 2008 is funny but it definitely beats a -5%.
I am just baffled that people slam Alberta’s prices when other weaker provinces with less to offer are catching up price wise.
BTW a RE agent friend of mine told me twice now that what is “showhome quality” , he sells at very near list price here in E-Town.
That alone is encouraging!!!
Fencesitter,
I have been hearing that houses in the $275,000 – $325,000 are selling quicker than others because of affordability (not sure if it’s true, but that’s what I’ve been hearing). If there are more houses in this price range selling, then that will be reflected in the average prices.
We also know that if a lot of high priced homes sell, then it drags the average up, which isn’t necessarily a good indication of what the market is doing either.
My point is, don’t solely rely on average price, but also consider the median price (which probably provides a more telling story of what the market is actually doing). You’ll see in Bob Truman’s post that the median price rose over $8,000 last week.
I periodically check working.com to see how many advertised jobs are available in Edmonton. I just noticed there are only 16,500 job postings – this number has been steadily dropping since the spring/summer when there was over 22,000 jobs posted. I’m just wondering if people think this is an irrevelant analysis of the strength of the economy (could just be seasonal) or if this is a tell-tale sign of the times. Let me know.
Ray,
“Anyway… 200+ SFH are still selling every week so far”
According to Bob Truman’s site, there hasn’t been over 800 homes sold in a month since June. And his stats include Sherwood Park, St Albert, Stoney Plain, and Spruce Grove. Sara’s weekly update shows a little over 200, but I believe that is total sales – SFH, condos, and townhouses.
“I am just baffled that people slam Alberta’s prices when other weaker provinces with less to offer are catching up price wise.”
According to Royal LePage’s figures, Regina and Winnipeg are about half of Edmonton. Montreal and Halifax are around 65%. Ottawa is about 75%. Seems like they have a fair bit of “catching up” to do.
Ray:
That is very true….if a home looks good, kept well, shows well, it definitely will sell. I sold mine on my own in 2 days….albeit it was 8K under market, as I was motivated and had no agent.
There is always going to be people moving to, from, and within Edm. There will always be homes for sale and activity.
The quick flip, though, is over. Just don’t know how many flippers are waiting in the wings to list. That’s what has spoiled the market.
Jeff;
There is a general slow down in the service sector within the O/G sector. I can provide first hand proof of that (although you’d have to then come by my office, view our financial statements, talk to my laid-off nephew, etc…).
No, I’m not saying this is a bubble, all of you eternally positive folks. And I’m not saying O/G will leave AB forever. There is a slow down. It is real. It exists. It is happening NOW.
This could be partially what you are seeing in those jobs data.
Seeing a drop in Job postings at this time of year does not mean anything. I would think this is normal for the season. I have spoken to more than one headhunter in the last week to see what is going on. They also said this is normal and they expect activity to pick up by quite a bit after the New Year.
What is happening with Real Estate in Edmonton and Calgary? To me it appears the market is balanced at this point. I don’t see much of a price swing either way from here. Averages are dropping a bit but medians are rising a bit so it seems the bigger more expensive homes are not selling as well. I’ve seen around an 11% drop in new 2 storey home prices since the peak and less of a drop in duplex prices since the peak. This seems to fit with the argument that higher priced SFH are a harder sell at this time. On the other hand homeowners seem to be driving the market now and not so much speculators so things should be stabilizing. Just my thoughts. Next year should be good for both buyers and sellers.
Anon, can you explain further what you meant by “next year should be good for both buyers and sellers”. If you mean this from a purely financial perspective, I’m not sure that I understand.
All I mean is prices in Edmonton are good for buyers and sellers. Sellers are not going to make as much but they are going to do OK. As long as they did not buy 6 months ago and are trying to sell now. Buyers are also getting a good deal as prices are rolled backed by 10 months or so. I don’t think the crash scenario is valid but neither is 20% gains next year. I think we are close to prices being balanced. Alberta is still on firm ground going forward. We needed this break in the insanity but things look better overall going forward if you ask me.
I say it’s a good to bad time for sellers (depending on when they bought in the cycle). With some people losing money, and some people making lots of money.
It’s still a bad time for buyers when affordability is still near record lows, and price to rent ratios don’t exactly make a financial incentive to buy. If house prices stay flat for the next year, it’s not that great of a speculative investment, and it’s not that great from a rental yield perspective either? Who exactly is buying good for then? Perhaps the Suzanne’s and REALTORS of the world?
http://youtube.com/watch?v=Ubsd-tWYmZw
Please convince me why buying is so great right now when there is not enough value in the market.
Love to all (even the bulls). ‘Tis the season.
Anybody know what % Royal lepage forcasted for Edmontons Real estate increase for 2007? Just curious if they are usually conservative with their forcasts or not, and I cant seem to find it anywhere.
Thanks.
Hi Red,
I can’t find it either at the moment – but I heard on the radio this morning that Royal LePage is forecasting a 1% increase for 2008 in Edmonton.
However, I take this number with a grain of salt – it would be suicidal for a realtor company to suggest a negative number. I would argue that is why Carolyn Pratt can’t say anything negative (or maybe she’s only using the positive-side of her brain). When I see a realtor company predicting 1% – I see a company that is compromising between their bearish outlook and trying to save their own skin. If prices are down 5 or 10% at the end of 2008, Royal LePage can brag that they were closer than the agents who would say “Edmonton will be up 3-4%”.
To the jessie and rays of the world…
You ask why do I bash when I don’t even live in Edmonton?
Why do you pump when you do live in Edmonton?
Emo;
No one can. Price still is too high and makes little sense. If it returned to Jan/06 levels, you could say things look more normal.
But, to others out there, a question to you:
Price and value increases are very desireable from a personal equity point of view, but how do you feel about interest climbing to 9 or 10%? What would that do to you?
If price keeps rising nationally, damn straight inflation will rise and so, too, will interest rates.
Price just simply can’t keep climbing. It’s a global financial world — at some point, no matter where you are, price HAS to reflect affordability and demand.
Both are still out of balance in Edm.
I don’t pump. I discuss various aspects of the economy, real estate and percieved consumer confidence. I try and understand where people are coming from and what information they are using. I then offer an “opinion” based on my perspectives and try and contribute with providing sound reasoning if possible.
You on the other hand come in here with baseless comments and doom and gloom statements and insulting comments about the city in general. Sometimes you throw in a link.
Jeff- I have seen real estate $$ forcasted on the negative side for the following year before, so that is not neccessarly true.
I think a 1-5% increase next year is a fairly safe bet. We will see.
Red;
R U buying a house in the next month or so?
I’m not either….’cause it’s going to drop further.
5% is a huge increase for 8,000 or so listings. At current absorption rates, we have 6 months of inventory. That’s half your year, which means the second half would have to increase substantially.
Royal LePage = 1.0%
http://www.royallepage.ca/CMSTemplates/AboutUs/Company/CompanyTemplate.aspx?id=1684
Re/Max = 1.5%
http://www.remax-oa.com/MarketReports_PDF/Oct07_MarketOutlookRptPR/MarketOutlookRptPR2007_RPT.pdf
ray said “Anyway… 200+ SFH are still selling every week so far. So… I think that I will do well when I list mine in May.”
ray, I always thought that you are a bull who intends to buy a property.
And now you reveal your true identity: a real bear who intends to dump your property into the market in 2008.
If the RE market is going to improve substantially, shouldn’t you start applying for one more mortgage and invest heavily?
I would, if I keep telling people that the price would recover.
Put your money where your mouth is, please. Be honest.
LOL!!!
Bunny: I am simply trying to move downtown in a condo with a river valley view; just about to retire. OK?
I actually have lots of faith in this market. BTW I am not “dumping” my property. The term “dumping” is best suited for other people here.
Maybe some people are reading WAY TOO MUCH in the present local RE situation.
I just wanna sell so I can move up.
“It’s evolution, baby.” (Pearl Jam)
Red,
Have heard of lots forecasts of negative gains in realestate. None north of the border though. All these predictions are for markets in the US (florida, phoenix, etc.). I have read anywhere from 10 to 30% drops in these markets.
From a legal liability perspective, it would be irresponsible for any company (such as RBC or TD) to inflate their real estate forecasts.
From the article in the Edmonton Journal today, Royal LePage says “residential sale price is expected to rise only one per cent to $341,000 in 2008 from the projected 2007 average of $337,500.”
“But November prices averaged only $325,060, so the forecast actually is 4.9 per cent above those recent levels.”
4.9% above current levels is a significant amount of money. At an average price of $325 K this would be ~$17,000.
Again, these are forecasts, so they can’t be taken as fact…However, if any of the major research or bank companies really thought we would see negative price growth, then we would hear about it.
M – I 100% agree with you.
Year over year sales are down 20% but listings have seen double digit increases. The wheels could very well come off this wagon next year.
Remember, patience is a virtue!
This is what happens when lendors make dodgy loans to people with poor credit who have bought houses at high valuations.
http://csimac.com/blog/uploaded_images/northernRock-Lines.gif-725922.png
M,
From the Journal article:
“But November prices averaged only $325,060, so the forecast actually is 4.9 per cent above those recent levels.”
Looks like inept reporting and arithmetic gerrymandering to me. First, he assumes that EREB and Royale LePage numbers are calculated using the same methods. Second, the salient aspect of Royal LePage’s projection is the percentage increase – the projected 2008 average value is calculated from it (not the other way around). Finally, _if_ the EREB numbers and Royale LePage numbers are indeed calculated the same, then Royale LePage’s 2007 projections are already 3.9% off the EREB’s November numbers (and possibly even more off the year-end) – and he should be asking why.
“Ken Shearer, broker/owner of Royal LePage Noralta Real Estate Inc., predicts that the current oversupply of listed homes will start to tighten in February as more properties are sold and others are pulled off the market”
Where are the houses that “are pulled off the market” going to go? And what about all the homes that are currently under construction? (And why don’t Journal reporters ask these questions?)
Price Sensitive Emo Guy – IM assuming your renting right now and hoping the wheels will fall off…
Good luck with that one, you could be waiting a long time.
SFH prices are coming down, I remember looking through the MLS a few months ago and you would see these zero lot line, 1200 sq ft 2 story, Archie Bunker specials with no garage asking $400,000 +. Now I can’t find one.
Still a whack of MLS pictures with no snow.
M,
Bank forecasts can basically say whatever they want with little or no legal liability…there are always disclaimers dismissing any research reports as opinion only:
-We make no representation or warranty, express or implied, as to its accuracy or
completeness. This publication is for the information of investors and business persons and does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy securities.-
So if you are a major Canadian bank whose total asset base contains a large residential mortgage section, would you want to put fear into the market? And if you were a major Canadian real estate firm who relies on real estate sales for revenue, would you want to put fear into the market?
Unfortunately, everybody has their own agenda and it’s often those who rely on information they see as reliable who are left holding the bag at the end of the day. Take everything you read in the news with a grain of salt and realize that news reports often tell only one side of a story…yes major news agencies also have their own agenda.
RJ asks a great question with his view of the sub-par reporting being carried out by the Journal.
In my mind, there is nothing wrong with flat real estate prices for the next couple of years to allow incomes to catch up. By big city standards, sure, Edmonton is still affordable but Edmonton was not built on the same foundation as places like Toronto and Vancouver. Edmonton is still a small market that needs to be affordable to thrive.
Central banker,
Agree that banks, etc. always add disclaimers to limit their liability. That’s become part of doing business.
Tell me why any bank would make statements that they know are inaccurate. Let this happen once, and I can tell you that a large number of investors in that company would be divesting their money or assets. It’s bad for business as customers lose faith in the companies reliability and accuracy in how they collect and compile data.
Changing the wording to a report or press release to give it a +ve or -ve slant is one thing…but to misrepresent, or not include data that is pertinant to an investor is corporate suicide.
Do you see this piccaso1881 ?So,..cold or not…prices will go up, period!!!!
Come Q1 of ’08 we’re going to see a surge in listings again. Those ’07 listings that didn’t sell didn’t just vanish. Their existence needs to be rationalized — which so far has not been mentioned by any of these RE agent (biased) forecasts.
An 8 year old can answer what effect that would have on price.
Where does Royal Lepage get their info to perdict anything?
Real estate agent info quiz?
Jim_s
Look back, there has always been more listings than sales. Where did all those go?????. If you want to look a numbers take a look at average monthly active listings for the last couple of years you will see a bottle neck starting in 2006. Once this bottle neck is worked out of the system things will return to normal. When??? I have no idea, but I would bet the fall of 2008 at the latest.
O.k, I do not understand one thing, why Royal Lepage things that
all other markets have some room to grow in RE prices and in Edmonton
we hit the wall and they predict a 1% increase only.
If we are overpriced, how come others are not???
M,
If you hold so much faith in banks and real estate companies as prophets of future real estate prices, why can’t they all agree on one number? It’s because they have different methodologies, different levels of investment and their economists have different opinions. The optimistic sellers would argue that the banks all agree that prices are going up – but don’t underestimate that these agencies are also considering the expectations they create. They know that a negative report during such a volatile time could significantly impact expectations and could cause the negative report to come true. The banks and realtors have a lot more to lose if a negative market is created versus making a prediction that is off the mark.
Red,
Just out of curiosity – can you show me the report that had a negative prediction in Alberta’s real estate market. I suspect it was during a time when the market was not as unpredictable as it has been lately. These reports are released to the general public because the companies who write them understand their strong influence on the market and have a profit to make from that influence. In spite of their influence, prices will land elsewhere if current conditions persist.
OH NO!!
I need to buy a house in the next three months – but I want to pay December 2008 prices…
Are there are any bulls out there with a house to sell that want to make a bet? How about I pay an agreed price (based on current values) +/- the percentage change of the average listing between now and December 2008?
M,
I agree that intentionally mis-representing is not in the best interest of any corporation. But in the case of banks and real estate firms making price predictions, it’s really a fool’s game and they know this. The real estate market is far too complex and all I’m saying is that when it comes to these price forecasts, researchers can make the data and methodology say whatever they want through their choice of assumptions. In the end, a bad prediction from any one of these firms can be defended. I’m not saying TD or RBC or anyone else will come out with a +15% price forecast for a market just to make business for themselves, but the assumptions they chose may just rule out the -15% scenario and rightfully so, they are looking for middle ground.
Now research reports on equities and more traditional investment vehicles are different. Screw up here, and you’re definitely right, there is a steep price to pay.
We haven’t deleted any comments today. We only delete comments that are offensive. A number of people have said they’ve had trouble commenting. I’ll take it up with out host Typepad. I’m sorry for any frustration.
Just went into Typepad for a little more info and found this message from Typepad:
“Thank you for all of your comments letting us know that the spam service is being overaggressive in categorizing your blogs’ comments as spam! This is great feedback. We’ve heard you and have made a change to the service that will help direct legitimate comments straight to your comments folder.”
Hopefully they’ve fixed the problem.
Yogi, as I just said TYPEPAD is having a problem with their spam filter. We haven’t blocked you, we haven’t deleted your comments. Chill dude.