So here is a bit of a closer look at what has happened to real estate prices in Edmonton. The chart below shows the average price per month for the past 10 years. As you can see prices in Edmonton were on a long, gradual incline for many years. Then all of a sudden 2006 happened. No one could believe how much their home was all of a sudden worth, or how much it was going to cost to get into the market:
This brought about a bit of a frenzy: buyers who wanted to get in for the first time were rushed to buy before prices went to high, and home owners started to invest in more real estate to take advantage of escalating prices. This continued for half of 2007 as well. Many people didn’t notice the inventory that had been steadily increasing since February, until later in the year:
Once people did start to notice the mood shifted from "buy, buy, buy" to "sell, sell, sell!" and the inventory continued to climb. What continued to surprise Sheldon and me was that prices didn’t significantly drop when inventory was at record levels, and sales were nearing record lows.
With our clear hind-sight goggles on, we can see that prices didn’t immediately drop, because the good properties were still selling (those that represented good value for the asking price). Many properties that were priced too high, or were less desirable for other reasons such as location, competition, or layout did not sell. As sellers became more motivated we’ve have seen asking prices drop. Now those houses are selling at a lower price, and their sale prices are reflected in the monthly stats.
Many people are asking for proof that prices will rise in the spring. I can’t provide that proof anymore than I can provide proof there will be snow on Christmas, although there are many signs that there will be 
What I can say is something we all know: prices will depend on supply and demand. There are many buyers who have been holding off buying, waiting for prices to drop. Prices have dropped. Are they going to jump in now, or wait until spring, or wait until next fall? I can’t say for certain. As for supply, inventory is dropping, but much of the decrease is due to expired and terminated listings. When will those listings come back on the market and how many new listings will come on? I can’t say for certain. I do know the builders are scaling back. Most have dropped pricing on their current inventory, and many have filled in or capped a significant number of basements, which means new construction will have a less significant affect on inventory than once thought.
So, we’ll keep watching sales and inventory and try to get an idea of what to expect on month at a time. For December, expect fewer sales and lower prices – that is the seasonal norm and I don’t see any reason why that won’t happen this year.
Amazingly unbiased from a Realtor.
That was a good right up Sara……I have just one commment….as you said, you have supply……you have demand…..but you also have value.
Value has to be present in the market before you have demand. And at today’s prices….there is no value when compared to renting.
Carioca,
The market will decide in the coming months what is good value for Edmonton real estate. The frenzy of the pyramid game is over. Flippers and specuvestors are not running the show anymore.
Sara, would you know how many sales happened from May to Nov, what was the ratio of sales verses expired/terminated, so people know how much more will come in the market in spring, so they buyers have the benefit of knowledge.
anon: Go to ereb.com
My guess is that prices will stabilize around the early 06 level as the Edmonton real estate market was undervalued before. The early 06 level seems to be a reasonable price point and it is what an average Edmonton family income can bear.
pivotal:
who are you to decide “The early 06 level seems to be a reasonable price point and it is what an average Edmonton family income can bear.”
A lot of surprises are in stores for the spring… 1200 buyers a month for the past while is huge for a time where prices are uncertain…
if we see from may to nov, looks like more than 10000 homes sold, so why is still such a big inventory.
Ray,
Who are you to decide that the prices won’t fall to early 2006 levels or even lower than that? The world’s going to be in a mess in the next 8 months due to what’s happening down South. Even the new Bush and HP proposal plan won’t help anyone, there are too many restrictions and most won’t qualify. US recession is imminent.
“A lot of surprises are in stores for the spring… 1200 buyers a month for the past while is huge for a time where prices are uncertain…”
1200 buyers for the month is not huge at all. Sales are at all time lows in the “hottest economy in Canada.”
Funny, you must drink from the same Kool Aid stand that Alberta Advantage does.
Speaking of Alberta Advantage, he’s been noticeably quiet during these times. Has he run out of sludge to type?
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/b/b0/Graph-house-prices-1975-2006.gif
If year over year declines are established, it is likely there will be further price corrections in the cards.
I agree that early-mid 2006 price levels are required as it is what the average Edmonton family can afford.
It is interesting how ‘peakish’ 2007 is starting to look. Given that only 2006/2007 saw ‘strong’ price growth due to demand outstripping supply, I am skeptical if there will be little to any Spring bounce this year as there is now way too much inventory.
Agreed, flippers and speculators are not running to the show anymore, but the show must go on. Many of those that bought to flip will someday need to sell. And I wouldn’t think they can all hold out until the market turns around.
I think, we will go through the same cycle again as before, that Calgary real estate prices are so high, that becomes unaffordable for many -mainly newcomers- than these same people will drive up the Edmonton market.
Let’s see, their average prices for the month of November is $462.000 and going up, ours is $376.000 and going down.( not for long )That’s close to a $100.000
difference.
And remember, that disparity HAD EXISTED before the first run-up of our prices. The pre-existing condition of our real estate prices to increase is a run-up in Calgary real estate prices first.
AND THIS HAS ALREADY STARTED ALL OVER AGAIN, LADIES AND GENTLEMAN!
poor alberta advantage, you guys did not like it when he wrote and you don’t like it when he is not writing. Leave him alone.
Ray,
It’s just my opinion. I formed my opinion based on what the average family income is and having home expenses take up 30-40% of net income. Ultimately, however, the market dictates where it will go.
From the USUAL patterns, prices may go up in the spring relative to November prices as the people who have been waiting on the sidelines since summer 07 may decide to jump in. However, again, one has to have an open mind when it comes to the market.
Inventory is sometimes misleading in that it does not take into account the asking prices. I suspect that there are a lot of homes out there for sale that are priced at absurd levels and are just fishing for a buyer. Some of the homes listed are priced a bit more than summer 07 levels. If the prices come down to Jan/Feb 07 levels we may see more sales and decreases in inventory. This may explain Sara’s view of a busy November.
What a great forum. It has been refreshing to hear someone else’s perspective on the housing market besides Carolyn Pratt’s and the Holowach’s. Why doesn’t the Journal interview anybody with enough spine to tell the truth? As far as I am concerned, I have not heard one realistic argument as to why prices will go up instead of down in the near future. Like a broken record, the optimists keep saying, “the economy is strong, the economy is strong”. Please wake up, smell the bubble bursting, and realize there is currently very little correlation between the provincial economy and the direction of house prices.
I can predict with 100% certainty that someone will misread my statement and provide another empty argument – please understand my point. My point is, the economy has been great for the past six months, and yet prices have tumbled. Why should our “great” economy prevent prices from falling even further in the next six months or a year? (Especially considering how much of our “great” economy is built on over-borrowed credit already – if you drive a Lexus that the bank bought for you… I’m talking to you)
I will repeat myself that prices will fall in the medium-term as long as there are more than 4,000 listings.
Summer 07 prices were too high and thus the market has adjusted to reflect that. However, there may be many buyers that are qualified to buy and may see a $20-50K drop in house prices as incentive to buy.
In my opinion, the market has support and resistance points and November prices may reflect a support point. It is obvious that this great economy cannot support summer 07 prices but it may be able to support Jan 07 prices. However, many listings out there are still priced at summer 07 levels and thus the high inventory.
If we haven’t reached the peak in edmonton real estate, we are close. How dare real estate agents continue to claim that prices will increase this spring. You mean this spring, when we have the largest supply on the market in 5 years. I expect this spring will show us the truth. Supply is outpacing demand and prices will come down. That is logical
How is it feasible for prices to rise in the spring when Edmonton experienced unprescedented gains of 50% in home prices in the past few years?
For the price of a ‘shoebox’ in edmonton, you can buy two similar sized brand new homes in sunny florida.
How is there value in the current home prices in Edmonton?
How can realtors make this justification?
The economy is hot? Is that their justification?
One sector of the economy might make it feasible for those with jobs in that sector to afford a $400,000 mortgage.
But last time I checked, not everyone who lives in Edmonton works for an oil or gas company.
If I was a realtor I dont think I could represent a seller or buyer in good conscience in this type of market.
To be perfectly honest Pivotal, I am one of those people who want to buy a house. My first house in fact. But why would a $20-50k drop be enough of an incentive to get in? I’d have to ignore that there is no credible information to say we’ve hit bottom yet. Don’t underestimate the negative expectations out there. I would agree with the statement that more people can afford a house when prices come down. But I cannot agree that there are ten thousand buyers who will jump in while there is a downward price trend.
At some point in the future I will buy a house. But I will be staying on the sidelines and building up my down payment until you’ve convinced me that I should jump in with two feet for the next 35 years.
Hi all, good discussion here with valid points from each end of the spectrum (optimism/pessimism)
The reason I went ahead and bought a second property (my first was in sept ’05) was I felt that we are finally experiencing the correction we were looking for – I bought my condo at about the same price they were selling for about a year ago ($312K list – settled at $275K – others units had sold in the summer for $320+) I agree I could have waited a little longer and saved a few more $$$ but it felt right to move now.
As for the spring, I agree that the inventory levels will be seasonally high, however, with many jobs to fill, I think we will see a return to normal growth – no more 50% YOY increases – just consistent 3-8% YOY returns.
If you consider the 5 to 10 year projections of our country, province, and city – anyone buying now is still going to be fine long term. The nay sayers all point to the interest increases of the 1980′s – however, due to the high dollar, the slow down in the manufacturing sector in Ontario/Quebec and the looming problems in the US – we should not see double digit interest rates. Also with the expansion of foreign countries and their growing need for resources such as energy, this translates to a long period of prosperity for all albertans…
Sorry to ramble, but that is just my $.04 (a little more than $.02)
Rhetrro,
Do you not read the posts? You sound like Alberta Advanatge.
The Edmonton ecnomy has been red hot over the last 6 months but yet housing market is STILL correcting and will keep correcting.
Your argument that there are many jobs to fill doesn’t float the boat anymore. Because currently, there are jobs to fill and accodring to all bullish mindsets, prices should have gone up and up.
So how do you correlate a hot economy now with decreasing prices?
Yeah, I saw the bubble economics of Edmonton and I decided to get out of Edmonton and buy a mansion in Anaheim. Even my wife noticed it and asked me to move the family after one season even though we almost won the cup. It’s just not worth it.
The ponzi scheme is up!
Give it up bulls!
LOL – Chris, I thought your wife left you?
Besides – her dad has way more money than you – I think he paid for your move to Anaheim!
Rhettro said,
The Edmonton ecnomy has been red hot over the last 6 months but yet housing market is STILL correcting and will keep correcting.
Your argument that there are many jobs to fill doesn’t float the boat anymore. Because currently, there are jobs to fill and according to all bullish mindsets, prices should have gone up and up.
So how do you correlate a hot economy now with decreasing prices?
———————————-
Bingo!
Cheers,
Piccaso
Interesting how my handle doesn’t show up anymore on my posts.
To funny!
Cheers,
Piccaso
Phonics boy – perhaps I should forward my instructional set to you so that you can learn how to spell as well as I can… or just use spell check!
I’m not discounting the fact that we have had good economic growth – even most recently – my point was that we still have room for more people (and they are arriving daily) and the housing supply is ample (hence some ‘equilibrium’ in supply/demand). Winter months are always slower and you are seeing sellers who NEED to sell and savvy buyers who are trying to time the market (I emphasize ‘trying’) Most units for sale are vacant meaning these people are living on 2 mortgages – which most people cannot do – however because they bought at the peak and in order to minimize their losses – sellers have been asking for all the money and then some for their property. Then after 2-3 months of 2 mortgage payments they realize that they HAVE TO sell at a loss or risk another 2 months (Dec/Jan) of 2 mortgages. This translates to the price drops we are seeing. With a correction cycle ultimately completed in Feb/March ’08 the market will return to a balanced market in the spring…
Now I don’t have a crystal ball and I can be completely out to lunch, however, I am willing to put money where my mouth is – unlike some ‘armchair quarterbacks’…
In 5 years time – one of us will be right and the other wrong.
Piccaso – that was Phonics boy with those comments…
Rhettro,
Did you trade up, or are you intending to rent one of the places? If the latter, what is the cash flow?
Renting out my first condo – a 3 bedroom townhouse in the NE – moving to the downtown condo (most recent purchase).
My ‘nut’ on my first place including condo fees is $750/mo. – am putting it up for $1100 per month for rent – could ask for more based on what I see around here but I am willing to take a little less and have a good selection of tenants to choose from…
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/071206/usa_economy_housing.html?.v=3
Moody’s Investor Services expects US house prices to drop 30%……….no reason why we are different.
Boardwalk and other property management companies are giving incentives to rent.
I guess you now what does this mean? More pressure on sellers to sell or rent cheaper to beat boardwalk which is a good sign for buyers to stay still and wait for prices to go down.
I have a building and I have 4 apartments that I am trying to rent and no hope yet for more than 2 months. Maybe I should start giving incentives too, otherwise they are sitting empty.
I am smelling something in air guys.
Carioca – I think we are different than the US because our canadian lenders did not extend these “interest only” mortgages to the same extent as their counterparts to the south. Also as a resource based economy, as long as oil and gas stays high – we are in good shape.
Becareful not to fall into the trap of listening to the ‘noise’ of the daily headlines – look at long term key indicators that effect our (not someone else’)economy.
Carioca Canuck, who cares about the california market? This is Edmonton… Major analysts are predicting Edmonton to increase by 7-10% in 2008..Not drop 30% like california. Apples and oranges.
You guys kill me… Just keep renting.
lureho – yes get some incentives or lower your price – people everywhere are complaining about rent hikes – having someone at say $800/mo. in your 2 bedroom apt. is better than no one at $1000/mo.
Rhettro,
Thanks for the reply. I was hoping to see a comparison of 2007 cost of ownership to 2007 rent, but that is not your situation.
Sorry – my rental unit I bought in 2005, IF I was renting my newest condo downtown – my nut would be $1850 including condo fees (is a little lower than ‘normal’ cause I’m putting 20% down)
Rhettro,
Thanks again. Any idea what you could rent the new place for?
No worries RJ.
I could not give an educated guess as to what downtown could bear for rental prices – just hasn’t been a focus, one could assume that it would be higher than the north side…. LOL
Rhettro…..
We are a world economy as you know and Canada is tied directly to the US, regardless of how much people and media try to spin that it is not. I own a company that does $4MM a year of sales….$3MM a year of my inventory is US sourced…..you cannot tell me that what happens down there won’t affect me.
We didn’t need exotic mortgages to do us in……we had hyper property inflation instead……and “liars loans”…..40 year amortizations…zero down….110% LTV ratio mortgages…..
Wifey and I got pre-approved for a “no doc…stated income” 90% LTV mortgage of $225K back in 2004…..but we backed off the market because at that point the value was gone.
The resource economy you speak of is hurting, gas is non-existent and oil companies are being careful…….and there are still billions of cutbacks to come…..
All my clients are business owners, investment bankers, brokers or other high end executives…..many are my friends….and friends talk.
Time will tell……
Red……
Do you mean those same analysts who said ABCP was a secure buy for companies, banks and pension funds in Canada ? Those same analysts that cost those organizations tens of billions of write offs ?
Those same analysts like “Liar” Sing Louie from CMHC….who has a vested interest in keeping things high because they will loose billions when it comes down. I’d bet that the CMHC insured mortgage portfolio is underwater in the billions already….the defaults just haven’t started coming hot and heavy yet.
He is predicting $550K average prices here in Calgary…..but we are down to $425K already from the November stat of $462K….and it is just the first week of December. Hmmmmmm……..
I was the manager of lending for National Trust Company here in Calgary from 1982-1984…..”been der….done dat”.
How about those anaylsts with the banks whose very jobs depend on their saying what they are told…..the “Chinese Wall” that is supposed to be there between sales and analysts does not exist because they have too much to lose.
Ignorance is bliss….and if you believe that, you’ll buy a property in today’s market…..however, knowing what is going on is magic…..so being aware of ones surroundings….”situational awareness” is what it is called….ie….world markets, etc….makes one wiser.
Now go drink some Kool-Aid and come back here and tell everyone why prices will go up. Even the blog hosts are unsure on that topic. And RE is their bizz…..
Carioca,
We agree on one thing – time will prove one of us right….
Too bad you didn’t take advantage of the pre-approved mortage 3 years ago – the equity you would have now could be easily used to diversify your business into other markets outside the US thereby reducing your dependancy on that market…
Your banking friends and you should know that what happened 20+ years ago is unlikely to happen again with the Cdn $ higher, manufacturing and exporters margins diminished, BoC has to keep rates low to keep Ontario and Quebec happy (remember they have a lot of political ‘influence’). Lower rates means growth opportunities for domestic and foreign businesses…
Even if you look at the previous boom bust cycle of the 80′s – from the peak to the bottom to the point it returned to the peak was 8 years, the bottom was about 30% less than the peak ($96K to $68K) What I am trying to convey is that if you think long term 10-20 years, you will always win with real estate.
I can appreciate your point of view and I think most people are cognesent of the past, as for myself, these are just my thoughts and experiences from my friends and clients – who share similar backgrounds as yours
Perhaps Alberta Advantage got bored with all the bitter, are not even in the market, dooms and glooms. With most of the time, pointless comments, that all reflect the same doom and gloom.
If you have watched this blog for a long time, you would see people come and go. I commented regularly until I decided it was pointless. The only good info comes from Sheldon and Sara who have gotten a whole bunch less one sided over the last year. They have matured with the blog and the market.
Anyone who owns a home has realized great gains, quick. This helps so many, even those that plan to stay in their home forever. It speeded up the equity which will certainly be great at retirement. The new families that were in less then appropriate accomadations, were able to buy up and get that house. I know this first hand as a new home sales person.
Many retiring folks had a very nice addition to their savings. Many investors made $$. Don’t think for a moment, that they didn’t or won’t. Only the uniformed (bought in the last 6 months) didn’t. Even with that, very few will lose $ as they will break even or rent, which is also a good thing for the market.
In my opinion this boom has helped as many as it has hurt. Perhaps helping more. You had to have been in the market and heard peoples stories and seen there smiles. For example, family of 4 in a tiny condo, not the greatest area, buying up, seniors cashing in and buying down. Investors getting there very first break in life. Trust me it has had many many postitive stories.
So you know, I have kids waiting to get into the market. I tell them, pay your dues and be patient, you will own a home. It was just as hard for dad and I our first home.
Yes I do respect others opinions if they are not just nasty because they are bitter they to do not own a home. I find that as a rule those that have done well investing, buying or selling during this time are never popular. Envy, pure and simple. Notice how the majority of doomers are not home owners. I wish we could compile stats on them such as age, income, credit scores, then have Sara graph them.
Thats it, I am prepared to get it!
Happy Holidays, may you be a renter or a buyer and to all a good life.
Laura and others,
I would prefer you didnt paint all bearish people with one brush. Some of us are bearish because we stand to lose a lot by entering the market when it might fall. That said we appreciate the benefits of hme ownership and look forward to owning one day. That said, is it possible to get in touch regarding what properties you sell?
Laura, that was me fencesitter who just posted.
I work as a petroleum engineer and find it very difficult to purchase a house in this province. I have had other job opportunities in the States, but have hoped that house prices would turn around in Alberta, as it is close to my family. If house prices do not turn around, I plan on moving to Denver to work for EnCana. It is not a matter of doom and gloom, but the price to rent ratios in Alberta do not make it worthwhile to buy now. For example, on the place, where I currently rent, the capitilization rate is 3.8% (less than a savings account). And that is assuming no mortgage. Many people were too young to take advantage of the boom. Alberta now has the second lowest affordability in the country, swallowing up 40% of pretax household income, whereas only a few years ago this was less than 30%.
Going forward, I would like to see developers focus on affordable, and livable developments (don’t worry, I don’t need granite counters or free car giveaways when sales are slow). A place where I can raise a small family, commute to work, and maybe play some hockey.
And on a final note, Mark Carney, incoming governor for the Bank of Canada had these comments yesterday:
“It’s the poorest people in society who are least well positioned to hedge against inflation, least well positioned to use sophisticated financial products to hedge themselves,” he said.
Economic booms that push up inflation “always end badly, and they require Herculean effort to put us back on the path where we were.”
I think that was very well said.
Sheldon and Sara, as the winter rolls in, the talk on the blog gets increasingly stale. I know that when you write a cleverly written blog that is in regards to something not market price related, people tend to not respond. I know myself that I have been guilty of not responding. Maybe I am wrong, but I think some of us are open to some new topics, and one suggestion is could be an open forum in regards to other subjects that are related to Real Estate. It would be a nice distraction from the endless market debate, which is good at times, but lately is just the old rehash of opinions.
Here is some discussion topics that came into my head that I think could stimulate some good blogging or debate:
1) How difficult is it to get into the real estate field, and to create an edge? What sort of skills are beneficial to a one looking into a career in real estate?
2) Maybe a discussion on the history of real estate in Alberta.
3) Speculative investing verses long term investing.
4) Discussion on media spin, and how it affects the market.
5) Affordable housing initiatives in Alberta.
Does anyone else have any other ideas?
If you read the last paragraph that might be one of the reasons why Alberta real estate has topped out…..
OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate rose in November for the first time in almost a year, to 5.9 per cent, despite the creation of 43,000 more jobs that suggest Canada’s economic boom still has legs.
Statistics Canada said Friday the slight increase in the jobless rate from 5.8 per cent in October was due mostly to more Canadians entering the labour force. The last time the jobless rate rose was in January, when it went to 6.2 per cent from 6.1 per cent in December 2006.
But as has been the case for most of the year, Friday’s labour force survey from the agency will be seen as mostly good news for the Canadian economy, suggesting that a downturn in the U.S. hasn’t hit the Canadian jobs market.
The economy has created 388,000 jobs this year, a 2.3 per cent increase, pushing the country’s employment rate to 63.8 per cent of the labour force.
The employment rate is not only a record for Canada, but the agency said Canada had a higher employment rate than that of the United States and most European countries in the second quarter.
Reversing recent trends, most of the new jobs went to men and came in the private sector, with transportation and warehousing, building, business and other support services leading the way.
However, job creation over the past year has gone to women and older workers, and in the public sector, where employment leaped by 6.3 per cent, as opposed to only 0.9 per cent in the private sector.
As has been the case for several years, manufacturing continued as the weak link in the employment growth chain and November saw 16,000 more jobs lost. That brings total job losses in the sector to 98,000 this year, with most coming in Ontario and Quebec.
But the overall tight labour market continued to push the price of labour up as hourly wages were 4.2 per cent higher in November on a year-to-year basis.
Regionally, British Columbia led job production by adding 26,000 jobs, almost half in construction.
And despite declines in its manufacturing sector, Quebec saw 19,000 new net jobs created in the province, although most were part-time and in the services sector.
Employment in Ontario was mostly unchanged, while Alberta, regarded the engine of Canada’s recent economic growth, also saw flat job creation, leaving total job growth for the year at 3.2 per cent. While healthy, that is well below the 5.8 per cent growth recorded during the same period in 2006.
Who’s this guy that won’t sign his name?
“Posted by:”
Maybe it’s PICASSO that’s on the edge of being banned?
I just love the bitter renters here like Carioca, rj and PICASSO who are crying foul all the time. I know that you guys would LOVE to see Edmonton CRASH… So for xmas I will buy you a new board game called “Monopoly Edmonton Crash”. That way you can play together pretending that everything is doomed around Metro Edmonton.
Don’t thank me, thank Santa!!!!!!
Ho! Ho! Ho!
Pretty funny as a few bitter renters are trying to sound alarm bells while 1200 buyers enter the market every month despite of…
And please, try to post things that actually relate to RE.
That Kool Aid thing… very renter-like.
That’s me, why my handle doesn’t show up on my posts now is beyond me. Maybe only pump is allowed on this website or something.
Cheers,
Piccaso
One topic that I would be interested in: what are the common hidden problems in houses in Edmonton?
For example, in Vancouver the most common “bad surpises” for new owners are: leaky roofs, hidden mold, cracks in foundations built on a slope, potential land slides.
In BC interior: some houses built in the 70s have aluminum wiring, and most insurance companies would have you redo the electrical.
Would be interesting to know more about Edmonton (for example, insulation and heating costs).
Buyer beware…
That doesn’t make sense though, why would a board moderator allow anonymous bashing?
Piccaso
Picasso:
why do you are bashful? Did you have a bad experience in the past with concerns to RE?
Were you turned down by a bank for a mortgage?
does it make you feel better do vent here?
Last question: How much is your rent?
My rent in Pompano Beach, Florida is $960 a month for a 1 year old, 750 sq ft one bedroom condo with 5 appliances, 10 minutes from the beach. It’s peak season too.
If I wanted to buy a SFH here I could get a very nice home probably 1,600 sq ft to 1,800 sq ft under 5 years old for LESS then $300,000.
Real Estate is still dropping in Florida so I’m waiting patiently for the bottom, if it ever arrives.
Ray,
I’m not sure what your situation is but I’m guessing you own. Are you also holding investment properties?
I certainly would not buy an investment property in this market but I would have much less problem buying a long-term home. Maybe the 1,200 buys per month are those people that are looking for a home, not just an investment. Or perhaps the thought of getting a house at 20k+ below list is just too much of a good thing for some people to pass up. Maybe this is a sign that housing prices are not that far above the equilibrium if in fact, low offers are leading to sales. Equilibrium is determined by willingness to pay and obviously, some buyers are willing to pay but I’d like to see how far below list these sales are for. Anybody have information like this?
If I wanted to buy in Dallas or Fort Worth, Texas that same 1,600 to 1,800 sq ft home could be had for less then $150,000.
So you see Edmonton, no matter how beautiful and how much of a paradise it may seem, is totally priced out of whack with reality.
Cheers,
Piccaso
Centralbanker,
Realtors have access to the actual property sale prices. However, I’m not sure if it’s summarized as I have only received that information on a property by property basis.
Travis,
The usual market pattern is that prices drop to a certain threshold where a lot of people are willing to buy. It may be a 20-50K drop, it may be a little bit more. But at a certain point, home prices look attractive to a majority of buyers and they jump in to buy. This causes an uptick in prices and this attracts other buyers to buy as the properties that they were looking for are now getting sold. Hence, there may be a slight increase in spring prices relative to today’s prices.
Venice, Florida homes under $300,000 and there’s 1000′s of them for sale and that’s just this area.
http://tinyurl.com/2qpblw
Sorry those were under $200,000 dollars.
Cheers,
Piccaso
So according to Truman’s site at dailystats.ca, it appears that Edmonton average prices (SFH and Condos combined) have decreased about 11% since July. What would the experts in the RE industry consider a correction (and a crash)? Would a time-frame be considered when determining a definition of a correction?
yeah, but they don’t have oil in Florida, that’s why it’s so cheap.
Ha-ha-ha-he-he-he
This is Sara….Regarding handles… for some reason some handles aren’t showing up, mine included (sometimes). It must be a problem with Typepad and I’ll take it up with them.
Yes, but the sand down here doesn’t make your feet black and stick to your feet. It’s as white and soft as flour and squeaks when you walk on it.
LOL
To the person who pumped Calgary real estate as starting to go up now and that we would probably follow.
This information if from REALTOR Mike Fotiou’s site.
Dec 1 to Dec 6 stats so far are:
avg sfh $435K down from $462K at the end of Nov
avg condo $$261K down from abt $313 at the end of Nov
Now, if I remember correctly many people have said that what Calgary does we follow. This point was made when this person thought prices were climbing upward again. Last year Calgary experienced lower prices then picked up again in the late Fall. If that does not happen again this year what will that mean?
Meanwhile, Sheldon or Sara, is it possible to include prices to date with your weekly stats as well?
Thank you.
Correction, condo avg price should be $291 above.
well, we do not have nice and white sand around here, but we have OIL SAND up here and
we can play beach volleyball up in Fort McMurray, if we want to…..
I guess…and not just a few of us,like you, but the whole 3 million of us…in the same time, too..and you guys can come up here and buy our property for $500.000…don’t even try to beat down the price, because you aint get it for any less…….
He-He-he Ha-ha-ha
Have fun playing volleyball in your tar pit at -30 below. Don’t forget the sunscreen, wouldn’t want you to get a sun burn now.
LOL,
Piccaso
Great, now this site is being censored.
**EDITOR’s NOTE** As we have mentioned in the past, with the amount of activity on this blog, we don’t have the ability to clean up the language and ensure everyone is playing nice all the time. We would prefer not to censor but as the editors of this blog get blamed for the nasty content. If a comment is offensive it will be deleted. If the commenter is repeatedly offensive they will be banned from participating. We appreciate everyone’s constructive comments good or bad, but name calling and offensive content makes us all look bad.
wait for the end of month stats, you’ll see prices going up
nicely in Calgary and than here in Edmonton, too as many people will be priced right out of Calgary as it hapenned before.
Earth 2 Karl,
Do they have oil/gas in Texas?
Yes.
Look up the real estate market in Texas and then get back to us. They are crashing as much as any other US city.
Having oil doesn’t mean we are infallable to a major housing correction.
Lay off the koolaid.
I was just kidding, Piccaso!!!
“wait for the end of month stats, you’ll see prices going up
nicely in Calgary and than here in Edmonton, too as many people will be priced right out of Calgary as it hapenned before.”
Karl,
You’re contradicting yourself. If everyone is going to be priced out of the markets – who’s going to be buying the houses in Calgary and Edmonton to jumpstart those price hikes?
LOL.
You’re funny.
yeah, but in Canada, everything is more expensive, than in Texas, including the Real Estate.
That’s why high prices will stick around here, I’m telling you.
True. It’s not possible for the majority of people to be “price out.” Otherwise, no one is buying and price would correct to a point where there is support.
“yeah, but in Canada, everything is more expensive, than in Texas, including the Real Estate.
That’s why high prices will stick around here, I’m telling you.”
HUH?
You seriously reading your own posts?
Your village wants you back.
High prices will promote higher prices?? Did you ever take economics?? High prices decrease demand. It’s as simple as that. Simple Demand and Supply economics.
when the last time we had our RE prices ran up, we had a substantial difference (in prices) between us and Calgary, Around $100.000 or even more at some point.So, those, who could not afford to pay high prices (but wanted to stay badly enough in Alberta)moved here and started sniffing around, as a cheap place to live. And prices started to go up like mad.Like it or not,this is the order in Alberta.
Karl, you are wrong. Crude oil price is not higher here in Alberta. That is determined by international commodity trading.
That’s sad, as the cost is high, but the return is not higher.
O.K not everyone is being priced out,(of the Calgary market) but many and their first choice to move is the next, more affordable big city, Edmonton that is.
karl, using your logic, if the RE price in Calgary retreats, does the RE price in Edmonton have to retreat even more?
karl buddy,
Never mind the sunscreen, watch out for those 150 ton dump trucks barreling in on ya.
remember one thing and that’s, that, time to time you can read it in the newspaper, that, in terms of income, only one place, Luxembourg
beats this place, called Alberta.
So, we are the second best on the surface of Earth.
Why do you think, that we cannot afford these high prices?
I never heard of high income and cheap prices in anywhere.
Do you agree?
When did this site turn into useless bashing? I wish I had something constructive to add today, but it appears that others have little to say but banter about the cost of housing and whether the market is crashing. Does anyone else care for a better blog where people weren’t reduced to taunting each others opinion. What a waste of a good forum, why do blogs eventually deteriorate to a pissing contest. I think people get turned of, and frankly I wish I had something to change the subject matter.
I agree Yogi – I can only argue my point for so long too! LOL!
So – How about those Oilers?
Karl,
Merry Xmas to you good buddy,
Although I don’t think you see;
The market has changed since spring,
And that’s the way it had to be.
House prices kept rising,
Yet incomes did not change;
We’ve all seen half decent equity growth,
Beyond what would seem fair range.
But now it’s time to sit back and ponder,
As to how houses can sustain such highs;
It’s time to acknowledge this plateau,
So open your friggin’ eyes!
Karl said “remember one thing and that’s, that, time to time you can read it in the newspaper, that, in terms of income, only one place, Luxembourg beats this place, called Alberta.”
Excuse me. But it sounds too good to be true.
Could you provide some proof? Preferably from sources outside of Alberta.
According to the link posted by “Karl is Deranged”, we probably will have to push Alberta to the 4th place in the entire world, just after Luxembourg, Northwest Territory and Yukon.
$300K for a 1 bedroom 1 bath – WOW, I must have done really well – I got 2 bedrooms and 2 baths plus underground parking for $275K! Oliver area even! LOL!
I’m reading that the “pissing match” on this website is annoying other people besides myself. So, to get away from the emotion and the politics, I’m going to throw out a survey. I’m curious to quantify the attitudes of bloggers on this website. Notice how I answered the question below and try to keep to task (don’t provide justifications or excuses).
Compared to today’s average selling price of a Single Family Home ($376,267 – EREB), where do you think the average price will be in March 2008, June 2008, September 2008, December 2008?
My expectations -
March 2008: DOWN 5%
June 2008: DOWN 10%
September 2008: DOWN 12%
December 2008: DOWN 15% (compared to today’s ave price)
This means I am looking for the average selling price to be around $320,000 a year from now. Let’s see what the sense is around here.
Yellowknife ranks higher than Edmonton on that list? Ouch!
March 2008: 0%
June 2008: -3%
September 2008: -10%
December 2008: -12%
(all compared to November’s average price that just came out)
Where did the list go? Weird, alot of posts are disappearing.
My predictions:
March 2008: -5%
June 2008: -8%
September 2008: -13%
December 2008: -18%
(all compared to November’s average price that just came out)
And Rhettro – Congrats on your new place. Did you check out the price of that same condo you just bought 2 yrs ago?
My predictions:
March 2008: -5%
June 2008: -8%
September 2008: -12%
December 2008: -16%
Piccaso
If anyone is interested in that list of the best places to live in Canada, here is the link again:
http://www.canadianbusiness.com/rankings/bestplacestolive/index.jsp
Keep dreaming boys. Or better yet, just keep on renting…
So Red, instead of returning to the childish games… just give us your projections for the next year
Truman,
No, didn’t look at prices 2 years ago – they are not really irrelavant (because I bought my first property in Sept. ’05)
However, considering prices earlier this year and in the summer – I think I did okay.
This is also my second property (I’m renting out my first that I bought) and I will rent this one out in about 2-3 years time when my girl and I are ready to start a family (God willing!)
My feelings for the market next year:
March ’08: +1%
June ’08: +3%
Sept ’08: +6%
Dec. ’08: +8%
No more crazy 50% YoY increases
My predictions:
March 2008: -5%
June 2008: -10%
September 2008: -12%
December 2008: -16%