Well, we’ve been trying to stay away from being all stats, all the time. There are a number of reasons for this but it basically comes down to time, and accuracy. We don’t have the time to constantly update everyone on the market stats, and if you look at things too granularly you can see trends where they don’t exist. There has been an outcry from our readers for more stats, so, starting today we’ll try to do an update every week on the stats, depending on our schedule.
The following stats are for the city of Edmonton only – simply adding up these stats will not give you the same numbers that the board puts out since they include the entire area.
For the past 7 days:
# New listings: 662
# Sales: 202
Ratio: 31
# Price changes: 603
# Expired Listings: 134
# Canceled, withdrawn and terminated listings: 247
Net loss/gain in listings this week: +79
Active listings for single family homes: 3930
Active listings for condos: 3002
Of note, one entire complex was taken off the market and re-listed this week, accounting for over 60 new listings AND terminations. This is exactly the kind of behaviour that skews the list to sales ratio for the board and something I hope they stop.
Since this is the first week, and posting only one week doesn’t give you anything to compare against, here are the stats for the previous 7 days (October 13-19):
# New listings: 585
# Sales: 191
Ratio: 33
# Price changes: 520
# Expired Listings: 214
# Canceled, withdrawn and terminated listings: 226
Net loss/gain in listings this week: -46
Everyone is waiting for the bubble to burst
))
At least that is what I see when I look at these listings….
Yes. I am waiting for the bubble to burst. Will it? The new royalities things do not help to burst bubble.
I think we would have to have a new election.
Well…hehe…..bubble might burst….but the question is still by how much…..or if the burst is going to reveal a new status quo….sellers might be peeved at having to drop the prices by 5%…but buyers will be peeved that their imagenery 20% price drop did not occur…..
as for the royalty thing….Stelmach chickend out….Klein ripped us off by installing that scheme….and Harper is making sure that his future election is winable in Alberta
)))…..ONE main factor which still remains UNCHANGED ….there is oil in the ground…..and the price is at 92$ today……dont know about you —-but that is alot of money…..
so if the bubble does burst….will it even make a “pop”???
))
GREG
Thanks for posting the weekly stats. I know they skew our view of the market, but for those of us who like to analyze everything to death, these help
I noticed your on the Canadian RE Alliance on the TOREAL blog as he just added me. I added you to my site, could you please link me back as “Sarnia Real Estate” Thanks!
Interesting report released this week from TD predicting average Alberta home prices to rise another 10% next year.
http://www.td.com/economics/qef/prov1007.pdf
Seeing how prices are sitting at about early 2007 prices this seems like a very realistic forecast. On another note you can now buy with a CMHC mortgage on investment property for zero down? While this seems crazy based on what is happening in the USA do we really think banks and CMHC are doing this if they thought prices are going to decline? Why would they take the risk when they don’t have too? Why would they put themselves out there for more risk even while the USA is tumbling? Either they are as dumb as the USA banks or they highly highly doubt a decline in house prices?
The royalty news has not seemed to affect the oil companies stocks at all! This tells us investors are not concerned with the impact of recent royalty news. Some analysts even came out today and said any dip in share prices could be viewed as a buying opportunity because there will be little if any effect on oil companies profits. Oh poor Suncor profits decline to 677 million this quarter! Boo Hoo. That means they only make over 2.5 billion this year! Ha Ha. They could pay the entire 1.4 billion royalty increase themselves and still make a cool 1 billion dollars! The oil companies are whining to the media but in reality they are probably having a huge party in the back. They got off sooo good! If you think this is going to have any effect on Real Estate prices the only thing it is going to do is actually push prices higher NOT LOWER because this is GOOD NEWS for big oil. OIL $91 !!!! Alberta has that !!!! Things look sooo bad I think Real Estate is going to crash and burn in Edmonton! Why why why do people think this???!!!
People have been irrationally exuberant with housing prices for too long. We live in a province with a very cyclic economic history. Renting is more economic than buying. So why get the 25 year product, have all the associated risk, and pay more for it? I will be the first to leave the province when our economy runs out of conventional oil, and that will be in about 15 years time. Thanks for all the good times!
Sorry, I need owning to cost only slightly more renting in order to accept the 25+ year risk burden of a house.
Did someone say OIL??!?!?!?!?!?
In another 25 years, Alberta will be an environmental nightmare. I heard they may use nukes to blow off the overburden from the tar sands.
Royalty increase hasn’t done a thing compared to the turmoil in the middle east and mexico announcing that their wells are running low.
Price of oil is going to keep shooting up. I’m sure we’ll break $100 before the new royalty rates kick in.
Funny thing is, just about every project that was planned will still roll out despite the chest thumping from the oil lobbyists.
I was wrong about Ed. I think by introducing a sliding scale into the royalty regime he fell into a bed of roses. The US dollar just keeps getting weaker so hopefully the price of oil (priced in USD)will keep rising also as a USD buys less and less.
I was wrong about the stock market collapsing this fall also.
Sorry Mr Stelmach. The sun will shine on Alberta for a long time.
If you see the current advertisements of New Home Builders they now offer a price guarantee on the purchase of new homes. If your house is not worth what you paid for it then they say they’ll give you the difference in cash. Of course there are some restrictions that are not shared on the advertisement. How can the builder take on a risk like this knowing that the market can head any direction after spring? If there something they know that we don’t? Are they taking the Stupid crazy out of they’re margin and now making just good money? What are your thoughts?
Sorry to say folks, but house values in Edmonton peaked a few months ago. Expect a slow decline over the next few years as we regress back to the mean (go look at Calgary – market is falling there as well). Oil investments in Alberta will slow as the Canadian dollar continues to strengthen relative to the US dollar, making projects MORE expensive relative to the US$. We have had an UNSUSTAINABLE appreciation of the CND dollar by nearly 25% this year alone. It’s UTTERLY AMAZING how we can re-live the 1980′s all over again and feel like it’s ‘different’ this time…
For the record, I have sold both of my investment properties over the summer and now am looking at purchasing investments in the US – it’s plenty enough for me to have tripled my capital investment, not including a 30+% currency appreciation. BE CAREFUL OUT THERE – we are in the midst of a regression to the mean, and if you think you’re house is worth a million bucks, you’ll have to wait for SOME time before you see that offer again!