As many of you know, I have frequentlyspeculated on the "goings on in the market" prior to month end. On a recentpost, Ian asked for a kind of mid-month update, so here goes… As it sits the accurate numberof active listings on the market as of July 23 on the MLS for Single family and Condo properties is 6720for all price ranges for Edmonton, St. Albert, Sherwood Park, Beaumont, Leduc,Devon, Spruce Grove and Stony Plain. This is below what I had been expecting from keeping an eye on daily new listings, which is good, but it also concerns me.
In months previous I could fairly easily plug in thenumber of new listings and accurately portray the currentinventory. With a large percentage of theproperties adjusting their price in recent weeks (mostly down but a few for the up side), I’venoticed a trend towards delisting and relisting. Basically, people are canceling listings, and then re-listing them so they appear as though they’ve been on the market for less time than they actually have been.
This means current inventoryis coming back on as a new listings, and this is skewing all the ratios. From adata perspective this is a nightmare. From a seller’s perspective, if you andyour agent want to try coming on as a new listing at any time youare allowed to do so under the current rules.
A few weeks ago our laughable listing of the week featured an outrageousprice in a complex that has seen the list price for the unit $80k more thancomparable sales in May and June. After 20 days the Associate – whois relatively new to the industry – reduced the price by just over 1% ($5,000) and while at itcancelled the listing and relisted it at the new price. If it wasn’t so funny itwould make me mad.
Buyers always should ask for ahistorical printout of any property they are interested in on the MLS. Comfree sellers or private sellerscan say what ever the bleep they want. Just check out the number of timesviewed at the bottom of the page, and look to the pictures for clues (ie snow, or trees without leaves) as most are too cheap to updatetheir photos. I know our neighbor down the street who has been trying on theirown for months would say anything to a buyer to get them to give them an offer.
As a Edmonton home owner that study local trends I have two questions: Aren’t the comfree speculators causing alot of negatives by “testing the market” right now? Also, I believe that houses in Metro Edmonton will still sell real good. I do not personally believe that prices will go down any further but owners have to be realistic and ensure that what they sell actually stand out compared to similarly priced listings in same area. i.e. don’t try to pawn off your “in need of tlc” home at a premium. With interest rates believed to be raised again in September, can we expect a slight raise in sales in August? (Toronto has experienced this in June I believe).
Thanks Sheldon for providing a peak into the market data.
Sheldon, as now when I look back and think what you have been predicting a few months earlier, I really want to appreciate your reading when the whole Edmonton was saying that the prices are not going to drop….I think your wording was somewhat like that “if the increase in the prices was due to the housing crunch and the investor activtiy then the market will see decrease in price..some people will get burnt…..
Bravo, this time you were right on the dot…
Take and care and bye now.
Rashid
This is to add to Rashid’s comment:
Yes I mostly agree with you however this market experienced a price adjustment which was a hike. Its simple offer and demand. Now that demand is met we will mirror Calgary. This means that yes prices will go up normally;i.e. inflation. Let’s not forget that even if net migration to Alberta is somewhat in a decrease it is still formidable due to Alberta running to national economy.
There is no bubble here. Edmonton is still way cheaper than Calgary and massive job creation will stop no one from buying a house at $500,000 when there are 40 years mortgages out there…It’s just a new reality! I live in Castlewood and homes are sold day in day out. Look for sales to go up in August.
Not really Real Estate related but has anyone noticed how many shows and venues have been going on this year? Edmonton is really becoming noticed around the world due to all this exposure. It can’t hurt the long term picture for Real Estate either if you ask me. Wow there is something to do in Edmonton no matter what your taste? I love it here. The labour market here seems to be getting tighter again as many analysts have been predicting. The recent pause in Real Estate prices are due to multiple factors like increased inventory, summer holidays, but I think the pause is also related to business struggling to expand. Once businesses can recruit key staff which are currently hard to find here I think the expansion will continue at a good pace. I also notice the brain drain of recent years seems to be reversing as more and more skilled labour is coming back to Canada from the US. Things look pretty good going forward from here.