The media is a funny thing – it’s almost as hard to predict what they’ll do as it is to predict what the housing market in Edmonton will do! The Edmonton Real Estate Board (a.k.a. Realtors Association of Edmonton) released the monthly stats for June yesterday and for the first time in a while there was actually some news worthy stuff in there, yet the only outlet that picked it up that I found was 630 CHED. Prices in Edmonton have dropped! OMG! Is it time for everyone to flip out?!?!? Then I saw on CTV last night a story about how prices are just going up, up, up in Canada and especially in western cities like Edmonton. Thanks for keeping up the consumer confidence CTV 
Anyway, as always we’ve got an opinion and most importantly the charts to back it up. So here goes… The biggest change this month is inventory… as we’ve reported all month the number of listings available for sale in Edmonton is quickly climbing, leaving us with the highest end of month inventory in a long time.
More choice leads to lower prices…usually. You would think with a spike that high would affect pricing more than it did. Maybe it will down the road – to what extent it will affect pricing is the million dollar question, and for how long is the other. Compare last October’s blip to this one…inventory only went up slightly last October, yet this June it’s up a lot.
What it did affect is the listing to sale ratio.
Sheldon and I thought the total number of sales was going to be lower than it actually was, and the strong sales are what held the average price in check.
What to expect for July? Lower sales than June would be the norm. Lower inventory then June would also be the norm, but I wouldnt be suprised if the trend line continues upward albeit moderated. There is potential for a further price drop on average mainly for homes in the mid to high ranges. I also expect the number of days on market will climb as the homes listed last month start to sell next month thereby increasing length of time on market on average.
I can’t help but wondering how long it will take to get some of this inventory off the market? Are people still listing or are houses just sitting?
I was a strong believer in this market but this time with so many listings it seems like it might be over. Has the time to cash out already passed?
Yes, but even if you sell at 10% below the peak you will probably have made something close to a 100% return in the last two years which is pretty good wouldn’t you say?
My guess is a lot of the extra inventory will vanish by the end of September. Prices will then start to climb again at a more normal pace like 5-10 percent a year. The doom and gloomers are going to be surprised when prices resume rising later this year. I don’t think you have missed anything by not selling yet. If you have something rented I would not be panicking about selling it ASAP? The rental market will be strong for quite some time and the real estate will continue to rise after this short pause/correction in pricing. I’m just an average Joe and that’s what I think. Take it or leave it.
I would have to agree with Richard. I don’t think the market will crash or go down alot if any. I think the rediculous prices will correct themselves, as long as buyers are saavy. The Edmonton market was a little behind the rest of the country and therefore we had a boom when it caught up. People will still be moving to Edmonton for work and school, but all this happens in the fall. This summer could be a nice stall on the market, give everyone a breather before we rip through another crazy Alberta fall and Christmas season. There are two groups of sellers out there right now. One group is pricing things for their value and the other is trying to capitalize off the boom. Now that the boom is slowing down we will start to see the second group more clearly. No more 1 bedroom 500 sqft fridge and stove for 200k hopefully.
Again, these are opinions and predictions….
TanR