Loads of discussion has taken place over past few months about the real estate market in Edmonton, its rise, and its potential fall. No matter what side of the fence you side on in this discussion, there are serious points on both side that require serious consideration – all to often these points aren’t given consideration because of the emotional nature these discussions. One of the most significant aspects of this debate is the emotional conviction of the people discussing it. It has been a heavy weight battle of sorts….So I thought to myself…"Self what do you think Howard Cosell would think of this battle?" So for those of you old enough to understand, here is my version of the bout called by the immortal Howard Cosell himself…Like Howard himself I’m just "Telling it like it is!"
This is Howard Cosell reporting to you live from Edmonton for the heavy weight battle of the year. And folks, it plans to be a doosey. Not since the Rumble in the Jungle (best Cosell impersonation possible) have we seen such a match up.
In the blue corner Weighing in at over $354,000 is the Bruising Bubble BB and his famous trainers zealously and jealousy. Although a shameful 0 wins, in every fight they keep promoting their fighter until hopefully they get a knock out… and in the White corner is the Magical market Forces MMF, who is currently undefeated and has been throwing his weight around for some time with little resistance. His ascension into the heavy weight ranks is a story of the ages.
The judges for this bout are, "Time will Tell" who has seen every market rise and fall since his brother the "Dawn of Time" gave him this job. We also have "consumer confidence" and the "mass media." The referee for this match is the Bank of Canada.
Round 1 – Dec 2005 – Goes to MFF who looks to be in fine form.
Round 2 – Jan 2006 – MFF who is gaining steam and continues to dominate the match takes another.
Round 3 – Mar/Apr 2006 – Goes to MMF again.
Round 4 – May 2005 – Goes to MMF who literally toasted BB, how much longer can BB hang on
Round 5 – June 2006 – Another devastating blow to BB, who just looks angrier with every beating
Round 6 – July, August, September 2006 – MMF just can’t seem to lose.
Round 7 – October 2006 – Goes to MMF but shows signs of fatigue after routinely pounding BB
Round 8 – Sept 2006 – February 2007 – The whining from BB’s corner is unprecedented, they feel they’re being cheated as MMF continues to dominate.
Round 9 – Mar, Apr, May 2007 – Again goes to MMF, the whining continues at a blistering pace like a shriek from some scared exotic bird however, MMF seems bored with pounding BB and…
Round 10 – They are still duking it out, MMF seems very strong on his fundamentals but it’s really hard to see how the judges will see it. It looks like MMF is on the ropes, he’s being pounded with Jabs of higher inventory but MMF counters with Jabs of strong demand. And the bell rings! The fans are going crazy, it’s a mad house in the the ring (Edmonton)! It’s in the judges’ hands now and only the judges will decide. Judge number 1 "Time will tell" always waits till everybody has long left the building, Judge number 2 "Consumer confidence" can go one way or the other but is often swayed by Judge number 3 "Mass Media" whose idea of a good time is sensationalizing the story.
And the winner is…to be honest this an overly simplistic view. Back to reality – stats and where the market is going on Monday. We hope everyone had a great and safe weekend.
MMF is using performance enhancing loans.
LOL….that’s funny, I hadn’t considered their training programs and supplements.
Hi Sheldon,
I really appreciate the time you take to write her and keep us informed. Would you mind reading on this link below and tell me what you think? I am worried because what was being said back in the US (in 2005 and earlier) sounds suspiciosly like what we are now hearing in Canada (Edmonton, Calgary, Vancouver). If it is possible to actually comment on the second person’s comments I would appreciate! I really want to buy a house but I am so freaked out!
Hi Sheldon,
It’s me again. I am a very suspicious person perhaps unjustfiably so! I just wanted to speculate that Calagry changing the way they report their statistics one by futher disaggregating data and second by turning an otherwise normally oen to two page report to a 16 page report will just serve to make iot a lot difficult for an undiscerning reader to catch on to worrisome trends?
I just noticed that Toronto is the same. I went there just wanting to get a sense of inventory levels there now compared to back in ’05, ’06 and about drowned in the myriad of reports…anyway, I will persist….
CBC has an article about Edmonton/Alberta leading the way with price increase last month.
http://www.cbc.ca/consumer/story/2007/06/11/housing-index.html
Victoria actually went down.
Averages and stats are especially dangerous especially when the simplistic view is taken into consideration.
My belief is that this market is still very strong. If you are buying a home to live in vs an investment it is 2 different strategies.
While this market will moderate in its growth and that has been forecast for some time the simple fact is you have to decide what will happen. Will this market free fall? Will prices dip and then spike? or will prices stabilize with very modest growth or a modest decline?
Back in Dec 05 I predicted the sellers market but not to the extent it has gone.
I have predicted earlier this year growth of 15-20% in pricing. We hit the 15% market roughly in may, but I could seriously see that dropping by 5% but I can also see price increases in a number of price ranges and an overall price increase due the lop sided nature of averages. You really should sit down with your Realtor get hard information and make some decisions ws to whats best for you.
As for the way Calgary presents their stats. I can’t give you an aswer to that. Honestly its not really their job to present the stats. Their job is to aggregate it and make sure the integrity of the data is good. I think they should put it out as raw data with no commentary on it. Its their Realtors jobs to interpret the data or extrapolate it and apply it to their clients needs.
In Edmonton, Sara has done, I think, an awesome job of putting Edmonton’s stats in a format that is user friendly.
Hell we have tons of agents who tell us they read it. I started having Sara water mark our graphs after going on an appointment and seeing our own graph their.
As for Toronto they have 20,000 members of their board, more than practise real estate in all of Alberta and they can very rarely find common ground on the best way to do things.
sorry fence I had to unpublish your link due to the profane language in the address. Which I am personally fine with but I am trying to keep this a relatively clean blog.
That’s OK Sheldon….what a world this has become for such words to appear normal! I had not given it a single thought…..which I should have.
No problem I didn’t think you did it intentionally.
I can say the report from CTV lastnight on the 40% increase is one that is missing the true picture. The rocket ride of prices is OVER. We may see some softening but there is still considerable strength in this market. At least for now and I suspect it will continue more or less on seasonal norms…