I have to admit, I’m wrong on several counts. Firstly the rate of new listings has slowed from the initial pace at the beginning of the month. At the pace evidenced early on listings would easily have hit 7000 – a large jump from previous months. However there is no sense comparing this June to last since last June was an anomaly. Inventory levels have corrected themselves and are now beginning to over correct themselves. Listings should be well under the 7000 mark maybe even closer to the 5500 mark for residential listings.
Sales are down from what I expected. Last June saw around 2200 residential sales. I expected that we would be close to 2200, but so far it looks like we’ll be well down from that, which just might be a bigger story than the increase in inventory. That being said, the buyers we have been dealing with generally have a sense of optimism of their own circumstances and the long term performance of Alberta. It is the short term seller/investor that needs to be aware, this is not a Betty Crocker market anymore.
My prognosis is that those who are testing the market will not sell. Those who are serious will compete seriously for the buyers attention. The market will shift to a cooler pace and enter the buyer’s market stage either this month or the next. The over inventory influx will correct itself in the months to come and the market will swing the other direction again, although this time not as dramatically, then it will settle back to the balanced market phase once the inventory is either absorbed or removed from the market.
It is a certainty that the percentage of listings sold will drop significantly making it not just a matter of getting more for your home, but getting your property sold period. btw…we did our first price reduction in 2 years the other day and I’m sure it will not be the last. At least I have an awesome marketing person to help make sure the 1500 buyers searching for properties through our site see our properties and that our properties have excellent visibility in the market place. Phew…
My belief is this frenzy will be short lived, but it may be painful for a number of investors, speculators and homeowners while things sort themselves out. So for now I’d say talk to your Realtor who is familiar with your situation, and they can give you the guidance you need to be successful…btw this is not my day job so the accuracy of the numbers I’m tracking are believed to be correct and have been so far but come on…This is just me calling it the way I see it…We’ll have all the info in early July.
I think this is better for Realtors. Long are the days where you can slap something up on ComFree and get 5 offers on the first day. Marketing, preparing and selling are going to be essential in the next year.
Actually comfree will still do well…swelled listings even if they don’t sell means they do very well.
I thinks its better for the market as a whole but it is still a long way from being the burst bubble so many people hope for very busy with buyers.
By the way checked sales again and they are actually up significantly since I last check…They should be right around last June’s level.
There is still an army of people at open houses for properties under 350K. This will put further upward pressure on the price of starter homes. There is a flood of junk and condo conversions on the market, which is where the inventory is coming from. There are still very few well located and reasonably priced properties on the market.
Does anyone have any thoughts on how the end of the school year effects the market for family homes?
See the graph Sara and I have compiled on sales. This might help.
http://edmontonrealestateblog.com/images/2007/06/04/may07totalsales.gif
Jess,
While I think you are right that the bulk of the inventory is in the low end. There is increase competition across the board in almost every price range and product range that I have been involved in. There are still mutltiple offers, determined and confident buyers, nervous buyers, greedy sellers, motivated sellers.